Just wanted to update the board....house in question is now in escrow for 4 even. The person who I was connected to ended up buying another home, but claims he turned the current buyers onto the house. To be honest, I told him to jump when it hit 4 and offer 3.5 to 3.7. He did further research and was excited to find out that it was one of the only homes in that range that had private beach access (I don't know if that is true or not). Thank you to the pros who took the time to address my question. Good karma to you.

This must be your lucky day, Bam. After only 61 days on the market, this property was reduced yesterday to $4,5mm. If I was your agent, I would recommend an opening bid even lower. The owner lives out of state and has slashed the price to attract an offer.

Here is a virtual tour link: http://grandviewdesign.com/tours/laguna/

Let me know if you would like more information.

Bam, certainly there is a good chance that the value of this home is going down, instead of up.
Another 20% decline would be over $100,000 per month in decline. I'd just sit back and watch the air deflate out of the value......unless you are in love with the place and don't care what it costs to live there......

Bam is back....I appreciate the information that was provided by all. It turns out that the "guest house" referred to by E. Bosworth was not a guest house at all but a seperate property (that was also listed briefly for about 9 mil). The price of the house I have been watching has dropped significantly...and I have been told that it will most likely sell for atleast a million less than it's current asking price . Is anyone willing to go out on a limb and say waiting for the house to go below 4.5 is a realistic option? I have more than a million reasons to wait if thats the case.

I've been outed? Good heavens! You found out that I'm a Realtor?

Actually, I have been doing a pretty good job of letting people know about that for over 32 years.

Sounds like a bunch of sore excuses after you've all been outed, Bob. Excuses won't help clients much after they've bought that house.

WoW!, Mr. Blue! You are truly the king of pricing properties in South Orange County! You're what, now? One out of one? Actually, you could easily crown yourself the king by let ting everyone know that in 90% of cases, properties priced over $1,000,000. get reduced at least once while they're on the market. Guess your BIG prognostication wasn't such a big deal, after all.

This wasn't so much a Mr. Blue vs. the local Realtors contest. None of the agents stated that the price was not going to be reduced. Ellen merely opined that the house was well priced - priced well enough to attract an offer, and perhaps it was, given sufficient time. Sometimes a seller becomes more motivated - for any of hundreds of reasons - and they drop the price.

In a market like today's, I have buyers turned sellers doing that all the time. If they've gotten a great buy on another property, they need to make the property they're selling an equally great buy. There is very little of the old standby "Buy low, sell high", these days, but when you're moving up, "buy low and sell low", isn't so bad, either.

Nobody knows why the seller has elected to reduce the price, but for you to high five yourself over your doom and gloom "call" of 10 days ago smacks of being a selfish reason to celebrate.

My goodness, Bob, the home at 31041 Pacific Coast Highway has been marked down $1,300,000 to $5,450,00!

Not one Agent answering the question told Bam that the price was too high. But I did. I was right.
This obvious failure has got to be embarrassing for you all.

Specifically, who didn't warn of the obviously overpriced home?
Not Bob Phillips of Coldwell Banker. Strike one.
Not Steven Abraham of Prudential. Strike two.
Not Michael Barron of First Team. Strike three.
Ellen Bosworth of Suterre even said "This home is well priced to sell." You're out!

Nice try, Mr. Blue, but the chart you link stops in Jan of 07. Here are some more relevant numbers from DataQuick, for the past 6+ months.

$430,000 = Nov
$425,000 = Dec

~2009~
$418,250 = Jan
$434,500 = Feb
$431,500 = Mar
$430,000 = Apr
$435,000 = May

Those numbers represent the median in Orange County, California. That's where we are talking about.

Bob, what data shows "Six straight months of a flat median in Orange County is an excellent sign that we have reached the bottom."??? Or is this a future hope for you?

Lansner's Blog shows the OC median chart from time to time and it is still on a steep decline. Not Flat:

http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/05/28/oc-house-price…

Pragmatist, about 99% of people failed to anticipate the extent of this downturn, including Warren Buffett, and Sam Zell, yet all 3 are wealthier than you and I, and all 3 are bullish on real estate right now.

Six straight months of a flat median in Orange County is an excellent sign that we have reached the bottom.

Bob, you can't seriously be citing Donald Trump as someone who knows where the market is going? He totally failed to call the latest downturn and has all kinds of liquidity problems. He's a good self promoter and that's about it.

Bam, Mr. Blue has been a doom & gloom, bubble-babble blogger in Laguna Beach for at least a year and a half now. His negative mantra, however, is falling upon an ever smaller number of eyes and ears, as REAL buyers are beginning to notice the opportunities available throughout South Orange County.

There comes a time - for anyone claiming that downward, OR upward trends will be continuing - when their predictions start to become increasingly inaccurate - that is the way it has always happened - at least in MY 32+ years of selling real estate in South Orange County.

Mr. Blue's negative rants are becoming as irrelevant today, as Gary Watts' positive rants became incorrect about 3 years ago - after about 20 straight years of being correct. At least Gary's prognostications went in both directions, at various times.

To Mr. Blue. Look around, sir. There are some excellent opportunities available - and with the median price in O.C. holding pretty steady since November 1st - 6 months ago - some people are concluding that the worst is over. Donald Trump and a few other astute individuals are suggesting that NOW is an excellent time to buy. You just MIGHT consider giving up renting, and join the throng.

Bam, buyer beware - values at the high end are falling and falling fast. Your friend should know that he/she could buy any house and wake up the weekend after closing to find that a neighbor has listed for, gulp, a million dollars less! I saw one home that was reduced $5,000,000. Neighbors not happy.

I saw the home you are referring to last Wednesday on Realtor Preview, it is a lovely older home on the oceanfront with a fabulous yard and a guest house which can sleep several people. The home is well-priced to sell.
E.

Bam, Hi!
Laguna Beach is different from most communities in that every property is unique.
As a trophy community with a "Village" atmosphere, it is not uncommon to have a major price difference, depending of course on its location, square footage, proximity to the ocean, views, etc.
Laguna Beach is definitely not "cookie cutter" and offers something for everyone!
If you and your contact would be interested in seeing a property in Laguna Beach, my office is located directly across the street from the "Montage Resort".
Please give me a call @ 949-378-4005 or lagunacastles@cox.net.
Steven Abraham
Prudential CA Realty
"24 Years of Professional Real Estate Experience"

Hi there Bam, There are currenty 5 properties for sale on Coast Highway in the range of $ 6 million to $ 9.5 million as noted in your question.
31041 Coast Highway is a 3 bed, 3 bath, , 2,596 sqft property on 7,105 sqft lot. It is in South Laguna, which is a stunning location. Amazing Views.
Just down the road is a 5 bed, 6 bath, 4.400 sqft home on 10,430 Sqft lot. Private steps to the beach, with entertainment pad, , home has had over $ 600,000 in upgrades, worlout room. seperate guest room, This stunning home is $ 6,900,000.
The home I think you might be referring to is the amazing home on an acre of Oceanfront property. It is a 4 bed, 4 bath, 5,815 sqft home on 44,850 sqft lot. Two amazing pristine crystal cove style cottages overlooks the sand with white water views and private ccess to one of Laguna's best beaches. This property presents an outstanding development opportunity.
If you would like more information or to arrange a private viewing of these properties please let me know.
I would be happy to show you any of these amazing properties.

Kind Regards
Michael Barron
Realtor/MBA
Real Estate Consultant
First Team Estates
(714) 552-6817