Ann, thanks. Someone has bid higher on the house so we won't get it. If it were up to me, I'd bid higher but my husband is excited to be short on real estate at the market downturn & wants to see what happens next year or the year after. My husband prefers Bronxville & Scarsdale but I like Pelham better. My biggest concern is the school system. Pelham is ranked above White Plains & New Rochelle in Newsweek (the latter 2 are supposed to be bad) but I don't know what Pelham's ranking means 'in the real world'. While it won a Blue Ribbon, the award is for "no child left behind" which makes me wonder if there are troubled kids who are at risk of being left behind but were buoyed? I have no idea. I wish I knew someone who knew the schools. We don't have kids yet but I'd like the option of public school rather than having to send them to private. Also, do you or does anyone else know about the downtown area of Pelham? Are there plans for more businesses, shops, restaurants, etc? Thanks everyone.

Wed Apr 2 2008, 10:13

I have lived in Pelham since 1964. I have been a realtor in Pelham since 1984.. Over the years I have seen changes in Pelham. The schools have done nothing but improve as our area was discovered by the very highly educated , high achievers now living here.
I lived through the bad times in Real Estate during the early 90s and saw our housing prices drop. 1991--Ave .348,422 1992--Ave .323,369. However 1993 Ave--394,590. We have not seen a major price drop in all the time I have been in Real Estate. Our house values have held steady.partly due to the 27 minute train comute to GCT and our excellent schools. The other part is that wonderful people live in Pelham and it is a hard place to leave. It is a family town and the residents are very active in many many different organizations where people quickly make lifelong friends.
I hope you are using a Pelham Realtor who really knows the town.
If you have fopund a house I would suggest you buy it --we never have a lot of inventory . This year the inventory is down due to the homesellers listening to all those people in the media with their crystal balls.

Tue Apr 1 2008, 10:48

It's not bad. Just not as good as some of the other areas of westchester and probably won't hold up as well in a downturn. What Gizmo mentions is for the most part why I don't think it is great. Not great doesn't mean it is bad or not nice.

Fri Mar 21 2008, 19:44

Catherine, I know you asked Pricetellsalls, but I agree with you that Pelham Manor is a nice area with big houses and the school system is good. Tax is super high though. I think some people are just reluctant to move there because of it is near Mt Vernon and shady parts of New Rochelle. I think the concensus is that Bronxville is much better (IF you can afford it because Bronxville is very expensive) and areas like Chappaqua or Scarsdale are better if you're willing to move farther. But if your priority is to be near Manhattan and get something nice yet affordable, then Pelham Manor is your best bet.

Fri Mar 21 2008, 08:06

Everyone, thank you so much for your answers. Please keep the conversation going: I'm buying at some point!

Dear, Pricetellsall: You mentioned that Pelham wasn't very nice. What do you base this on? I'm curious b/c I haven't been able to find any completely candid views on Pelham. I visited and thought it was nice (Pelham Heights & Manor) and did an internet search and my research led me to believe the schools are good. Are you basing your opinion on Pelham's location (next to Mt Vernon & Bronx) or have you spoken to people? If, so please let me know details of what they've said, etc. Many thanks!

Fri Mar 21 2008, 07:43

I work on Wall St. I own a condo in NYC. I am looking for a place in the Hamptons. So I am going to give you the lowdown on New York and what is happening.

This is going to be one of the biggest layoffs in Wall St history. Wall St drives NY area prices, the last time this many people were fired was in the early 90's. That was when they were auctioning apts in Battery Park City for almost nothing. It is not going to be that bad this time around.

As a homeowner I can tell you that apt is going to go down maybe 10% in the near future. It won't be a nosedive cause many people like me couldn't care less because most will not be forced to sell. Some will which will drive the prices down. The real areas that are going to go down a lot more are the fringe areas like Williamsburg, Dumbo, Hoboken, LIC. These areas are not NYC and will never be. They don't have the strong hands there who don't have to sell.

In the surrounding suburbs, the strong rich areas will go down a little not much. Unfortunately Pelham in all honesty is not a great area. It will be hit pretty hard.

This is the strategy I am using and suggest you do the same. Do not pay more than 90% on a "fairly" priced home. If it is overvalued bid them 15% or more under. many will say no but time is on your side. I've am seeing big cuts where I am looking. Eventually you will get hit. And if you get a nice discount, you have effectively bought a house 1 year forward.

Thu Mar 20 2008, 18:25

Melissa,
you make a good secondary point. If the house you see is a dream for you, them its worth it pay a little extra for it. But you should know, that if you buy a home in say september, and the futures contracts and conventional wisdom is right, in 2009 you will have lost probably 10% of your home value. If you don't look and aren't moving, you don't care, but if you're a smart person and savvy investor that looks at when you can both get a house, and make a solid investment, its time to wait. If you find your dream home and will stay for a while, i agree with you, don't pass up your dream home, since you'll make it back, but if you find homes you like, realize there will be plenty others and don't do something rash.

Zack

Thu Mar 20 2008, 15:44

I'm not a realtor and am also a potential home buyer (looking in the Rivertowns and Pleasantville). My opinion is this, seriously consider buying IF
1. you've done your due diligence and saved a hefty down payment for the house AND still have $ for vacations; retirement savings etc;
2. you (and your spouse, etc) have financial stability and your job isn't at high risk (i.e. you don;t work at Bear Sterns);
3. you won't be stretching yourself (to John's point--evaluate the true cost of buying vs. renting); AND
4. (big AND) you love the home and INTEND on staying there over a good length of time (15+ years)

Yes, everything you read points to the fact that we may be entering a recession: newpaper and media headlines, the declining or correcting of housing prices and foreclosures all over the country. Few things to keep in mind about WESTCHESTER--it's unique b/c it's one of the $$$ counties in the nation. In wealthy areas, sellers will sit on their homes if they don;t get the price they want (b/c they have the $ and can) and that could affect/lower the inventory as we enter or get further into the recession. Why sell if you can't get the price you want, you might not trade up, and you have the $ to stay? The flip side of that is that there are always retirees who are pushed out b/c of rising taxes (which are already the highest in the country) or are downsizing--which is true during any type of economic market. Westchester (and many areas around NY) are unique b/c they tend to hold their value (or sellers perceive they do) and don't follow the trend of falling housing prices as quickly as other ares in the country. There are a few articles in the real estate section of the NYTimes that talk about this.

My opinion, with the little I know of your personal finances etc, is that if you are financially stable, absolutely LOVE the home, and intend to stay there (not a 5yr deal) then buy. If you buy and end up staying in the home 15-20-30 years and aren't house poor, you've probably made the right decision. If you are only putting down 5%,10% or even 20% and are stretching yourself--I'd say wait. It's better to save for a bigger down payment, potentially snag a better deal in 12-24 months and see where the market heads.

Thu Mar 20 2008, 11:00

In the interest of full disclosure, Danielle, my occupation is law enforcement. My formal training is in finance and economics.

Your responses are cute, but again, you fail to address any of my points and instead veil yourself in a non sequiturs. Just because you don’t agree with me doesn’t mean I am hostile towards Realtors™. I will admit that I don’t like people who don’t know how to argue a point.

The people who read these threads will see the lack of a learned response from any of the Realtors™ for what it is. There is no direct response for a reason.

Wed Mar 19 2008, 21:07

John,

I love myself and I love my clients. Again I am not sure why you hold so much hostility towards Realtors. The future state of the market is unknown, NOONE can predict the future, one can speculate but not predict. Each clients risk is individual based on their current and future situations. That is why any good agent will become very close with their clients to find out exactly what is best for them.
I really hope you get some help to deal with your hostility.

Best to you,
Danielle

PS- What is your profession?

Wed Mar 19 2008, 20:57

Danielle said, “From the amount of hostility you seem to have for Realtors (tm) I have come to the conclusion that your mother was a Realtor (tm) and did not hug you enough.”

Danielle,

You have insulted me by suggesting that my mother occupied the same profession as you. That’s an interesting piece of logic, Danielle, and might suggest a degree of self loathing. I don’t fault you for it.

In all seriousness, I love Realtors™. Comedy like this wouldn’t be possible without you guys.

Now, why don’t you and the others direct some of your wittiness towards rebuffing my arguments as to the state of the real estate market and the fact that the NYC area is grossly overvalued?

I’ve referenced scholarly studies penned by Yale economists. I’ve talked about the number of unoccupied homes, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, now standing at an all time high of over 2+ million. Demographics, economics, the MBS/CDO markets, inventory versus sales rates – all things I’ve spoken about.

Realtor’s™ responses: “Now is a great time to buy.” “Trust your gut.” “I caution you from taking advice from people who do not work in the real estate market everyday.” This is comedy in its highest form.

Remember people – these are the same “Professionals” that warned the sheep, “Buy now or you’ll be priced out forever!” That turned out well for many home buyers circa 2003-2005. Good advice, Realtors ™.

Many of your numbers are going back to being bartenders, secretaries and waiters as the current sales volume cannot support your bloated NAR membership.

Good luck to all.

Wed Mar 19 2008, 20:46

In my opinion it is a great time to buy..there is alot to choose from, interest rates are down and if you do find a house you like then get your agent to run a market analysis for you to see what is a reasonable market value for the house. I assume that you will be living in this house for awhile. If you do not overpay for the house you will be fine. Buy it and enjoy it. If you wait too long for the price to drop...if it does...then all the potential buyers will jump in at the same time and you will be seeing a price increase ... a possible bidding war! Why wait when you can be in control now and negotiate. Good luck.

Teresa Chang

Wed Mar 19 2008, 20:16

This is an interesting question. Of course I am from another state where we soar with foreclosures! However, we believe that this year (2008) we will bottom out, but who really knows? I think that even if you wait for a year or two you will still get a good deal, but maybe not as good as in 2008. You should really get the opinion of a real estate professional in your area.

I know here in Michigan people can almost steal some of these foreclosures. I can't believe what deals! Some of my buyers just bought a duplex where the bank took approximately a $100,000 loss. Now that is a good deal!

What do you want to do? If you like a home and it is worth it to you, then go for it! If it meets your needs and a price you are willing to pay...go for it! If you are not comfortable then don't. However, I caution you from taking advice from people who do not work in the real estate market everyday. I know they are trying to help you, but realize depending on a professional...we are just that professionals and know all sorts of extra pieces of information that someone who bought 10 years ago does not necessarily know since the market is changing so quickly.

My advice is follow your gut instinct. If it is right for you...go for it! If it isn't then wait and see where the market goes.

I hope this information helps! Best Wishes!

Wed Mar 19 2008, 20:00

John,

From the amount of hostility you seem to have for Realtors (tm) I have come to the conclusion that your mother was a Realtor (tm) and did not hug you enough.

Danielle :)

PS- Over under count is 4 minus myself (I never said now was a good time to buy) makes it 3.

Waiting on pins and needles for your next enlightening retort.

Wed Mar 19 2008, 19:49

Karen,

If you can read this thread, and specifically my posts in it, and still say "now is a good time to buy" then I doubt you've ever told anyone that it's a BAD time to buy.

In light of current events and the market in particular, now is one of the worst times to buy. What exactly has changed between 2007 and 2008, other than the slope of the decline in prices?

-John

PS – We’re very close to going “over” the over-under on how many Realtors™ would flock to this topic with comments like Karen’s. Current count: 5. Please refer to the oldest post in this thread.

Wed Mar 19 2008, 12:22

Well, John the Bruce, begin to eat that hat because I have told people not to buy because of timing. Last year more than any year. Because people were getting in over there heads with homes they could not afford. May seem strange to you but not everyone is consumed by the "might dollar". I think about people first. My husband tells me I'll never make money in this line of business because of how I operate. At any rate, everyone is entitled to an opinion. I gave mine and you gave yours. We don't have to agree.

Wed Mar 19 2008, 11:03

Karen said, “In my opinion, now is a good time to buy. And that's not just because I'm a Realtor.”

Please tell me the time when you told a client that it WAS a bad time to buy, and I’ll promptly eat my hat.


Karen said, “By the time prices bottom out you would have missed it... demand would have outweighed supply spiking prices again ('06-'07 was a sellers market, an nobody really saw it coming).”

Karen, this is just so wrong that I don’t know where to begin. First off, prices are far from bottoming out. Secondly, in previous housing downturns, prices bounced along the bottom for quite some time before any “new” up-trend was established, let alone a “spike.” The 13-year period from 1987 until 1999, real house prices stayed roughly within the range of $125,000 to $150,000 – national average. This market will move horizontally after we reach bottom; it won’t spike.

You can only scare people with the “buy now before you’re priced out forever” line on the way up. On the way down, it just makes you look silly.

Remember going to parties in 1999-2000? People trading tech stock picks, talking about the NASDAQ trading at 5000, etc, etc. Now, if you start talking about tech stocks at a party in 2008, people will laugh at you.

When you go to a party a few years from now and people laugh at you in response to your desire to buy real estate, then you’ll know we’re reached the bottom. Until then, enjoy the show.

Tue Mar 18 2008, 21:47