Hi Kevin, I don't mind answering. I can see how those numbers might seem a little random if you don't have the Absorption Rate Study sitting right in front of you. (Obviously, if I were to speak with this home owner about his home, I'd narrow it for his specific price range, but the numbers given serves as a parameter for the general time frame of his neighborhood.)

Absorption Rate looks like this:

16 homes on the market
22 sold in the past 6 months
Absorption Rate = 3.67 (houses sold per month over the last 6 months)
Supply = 4.36 months (comparable homes divided by Absorption rate)
Probability of selling in 1 month = 22.92% (1 divided by supply)
Probability of selling in 3 months = 54.2% (3 divided by supply)
Probability of selling in 6 months = 79.02% (6 divided by supply)
Probability of selling in 9 months =90.39%(9 divided by supply)

** keep in mind that absorption rate ONLY deals with homes already on the market and does not take into consideration the fact that MORE may be listed in the future (which would obviously change the numbers).

So, if any other homes are listed (as they will be), these numbers will change - and depending on where you are priced will determine whether you will go up or down the scale of percentages.

I find it fascinating!! It's really eye-opening when you're looking an expired listings and running Absorption Rate figures - the numbers just don't lie. It's basically saying - with 16 homes in competition for buyers - and only 3.67 selling per month, you need to be in that top 3.67 (22.92%). Any lower and your probability of selling each month declines drastically.

I hope this helped.

Tori Stamps, MA, JD
Johnson & Thompson Realtors, Inc.
615.790.3400 (office)
615.512.5485 (cell)
toristamps@comcast.net

Tori - excellent information. Do you mind me asking about your comment "Regardless of how well your agent markets your home, if you aren't in the top 22.92% in regards to price AND condition, your home will not sell in that first 30-45 days" ? How, or from what source, did you arrive at this specific percentage?

You have gotten some good answers. I just wanted to add a little bit to explain WHY price point is so imperative.

At present, there are 16 homes on the market ranging in price from 400,000 - 680,000. ($109 - $181/sf). 22 homes have sold in the last 6 months (with an average price of $128/sf - actual = $117 - $154/sf).

What does this mean to you? It means there is a 4.36 month supply of homes on the market (assuming no one else lists). Regardless of how well your agent markets your home, if you aren't in the top 22.92% in regards to price AND condition, your home will not sell in that first 30-45 days. The way to get traffic through your house is to price it correctly. It's been proven time and time again, that homes get the most interest in that first 30 days. After that 30 days, you've lost all "present" homebuyers (they've seen it already) and start to look for new buyers that are entering the "home-buying arena." Studies have also shown that pricing a home correctly initially will yield a higher profit in the long run. For example, even if you end up with the same sales price, you haven't put out EXPENSES for a number of months - mortgage, insurance, etc.

One example is the guy above who is asking $181/sf for his home. Not only does he have very small odds that his home will sell (he's making everyone else's house look like a great deal); even if some silly person DOES offer him full price, it's highly unlikely it would appraise due to all the recent sales in the area being for that much less.

When you meet with a Realtor ask them for an Absorption Rate Study along with the standard CMA. The more statistical data you can put together, the better chance of coming to the EXACT point you need to be at.

If I can provide you with further information or a more detailed Absorption Rate Study for your home, please feel free to contact me at 615-512-5485.

Hi,

Both Cece and Stephen are correct! I have 3 buyers currently looking in the Brookfied and Copperstone neighborhoods and have shown many of the homes on the market over there this past year. The ones that seem to be going fast have been priced slightly under comps, updated, have great curb appeal and show well on the inside! All of my buyers were from out of town so they were always always a little bit late when they got into town, and some of the houses that stood out among the rest were already under contract.

I would suggest interviewing a few different realtors and see who you feel like will do the best job for you!!! Make sure your personalities click and things will fall into place!

Please let me know if I can help!!! Good luck!!

Ginger Garland
Crye-Leike, Realtors
615-300-5573
615-771-6620
ggarland@realtracs.com

Ocean,

Having sold 4 homes in the neighborhood, and having worked with my colleague who has seen 2 homes sell *in a week* in Brookfield - in the last 90 days - you have an excellent mindset to compete with all of those houses in Brookfield: what do we have to do to beat them?

Cece makes an excellent point – price it right. Stephen makes clear the point that you must be ready to act right out of the gate with aggressive marketing, and accurate presentation.

Are you ready to interview those of us that are ready to help you take advantage of the market?

I understand the pressure of a 30-45 day sale for you. I am ready to help you. Would you like to follow up via e-mail below and setup a plan of attack this afternoon?
kevin pellatiro (615)714-7918 kpellatiro@realtracs.com http://signswemustobserve.blogspot.com/

Hi,

My team offers free staging advice (from a well known local interior designer). We also do free High Definition Video tours and advertise your property all over the internet (instead of JUST the MLS). We are very aggressive with open houses and making sure your house is known. The first 45 days are the most important when listing a home.

Finding the right price point is crucial. This can be done by looking at sales history throughout the neighborhood. If we can list your home slightly under the competition then I feel confident your home will sell quickly.

Pricing, presentation, and exposure is the key. Our team can give you this and more. We would love to swing by your home for an "interview".

Stephen Strickhausen
KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY
9175 Carothers Pky Suite 110
615-778-1818
Sstrickhausen@gmail.com
http://www.Sstrickhausen.com

Cece Wyant
Prudential Woodmont Realty
Cell: 615-496-4969
Office: 615-661-7800 http://www.cecewyant.com
ccwyant@comcast.net

I have sold 4 houses in Brookfield--2 of them this summer. Looking at what is currently going in in the market and pricing your home adequately from the beginning is critical. Overpriced homes do not get as much traffic and unfortunately, buyers are still looking for "deals".

Getting your house ready to sell is very important, as well. Houses need to be clutter free, with neutral colors and well maintained, to entice buyers. There is alot of competition out there so your house needs to stand out from the rest. I would love to talk to you and give you my professional opinion on pricing your home and getting it ready to sell.

Feel free to give me a call.
Cece Wyant
Prudential Woodmont Realty
5107 Maryland Way
Brentwood, TN 37027
Cell: 615-