How about unemployment, foreclosures, prices still declining....
Rather than appear to be or accused of the old you must hate Realtors poo-pah I'll provide some links that address your question a majority of which are Realtors talking to Realtors.....
First though to put increase of sales into perspective...
The accuracy of sales data provided by NAR...
How NAR expalins where it gets its data..
The tax credit and it's effect on the market
Realtors discussing the Great time to buy message
Now we can go on and on with articles, Realtor discussions (There are plenty of them) and Agents will respond with it's local markets, my market, based on my expertise...
How many of the Agents here said the same thing in 2007, 2008, all year this year as prices continued to decline, how many were urging people to buy a couple of months ago because interest rates would climb very soon?
Local markets..Use all the info available to look yourself...Are prices still declining, foreclosures still high, unemployment still a problem, loans being made, loan modifications being done...All important questions...Especially since it is YOU who will be stuck with the Financial Obligation on a property that may still be declining in value....
Some sources to help form your own opinion..Will lead to info on a number of cities/market
New York Market reports
New Jersey Market
There's plenty of info available, look for it and it is your responsibility to become informed so you can make wise decisions...
Do you want to buy because sales are increasing or because Prices have stopped declining?
Will you be fine with the decision to buy if the property value continues to decrease?
Remember none of these Agents are going to help you make the payments or give you a refund if their. opinions are wrong.
PERHAPS THEY (Those who say it;s a great time) ARE EVEN RIGHT, but you would be foolish not to review & verify every thing you are told about this market, what's happening with unemployment, what is the status of foreclosures in your market ect....
YOU ARE GETTING OPINIONS, VERIFY THEM....Also remember these comparisions of sale increasing are being made with sales from last year...Boy that was a good year ; )
How would those sales compare to 2007 2006 2005 2004? How bout the prices?
You can Buy and do well but ONLY if you verify the info, consider the sources and make wise decisions
Good luck Dunes...
If prices do continue to decline and foreclosures increase who among you will be back here admitting the Advice given, "Great time to Buy" may have been incorrect? Who's admitting they were incorrect in 2006 2007 2008?
" DO NOT RISK YOUR MONEY BASED ON REAL ESTATE AGENTS TELLING YOU IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BUY..
Use your ability to become informed about the market your are interested in, what the unemployment/employment situation is, what is the impact of foreclosures is and are prices still declining? "
Is excellent advice! It basically says... don't rely on the opinion of someone you don't know. Become informed... do the research... do your due diligence... check with multiple sources.
and I should point out... that is NOT anti-Realtor... it's simply good business. If your research shows you that it's a good time for you to buy... they go ahead and contact your Realtor and begin the process. If your research shows you that it may be better for your to wait... then you should wait. Be comfortable with your decision... you'll be living with it (either way) for a long time.
You may also consider asking this question in forums that discuss unemployment, economics ect..
The fact that many of those responding need people to buy in order to make a living may possibly be a source of some biased opinions...It's your money at risk, they risk nothing...
I will remind you again the RE community has said it is a good time to buy through this entire Market..2006 2007 2008 and been wrong...How good was their opinion/advice to the people who bought then?
GET INFORMED and do not seek an answer to this type of question solely from those whose profession profits if you buy....... Again I request you Read this...http://activerain.com/blogsview/1349237/a-plea-to-the-nation
and read this blog written by the same person in 2007...http://activerain.com/blogsview/344757/Now-is-a-great
When an Agent/lender tells you it a good time to buy they risk nothing but their livelihood does depend on people buying so they do profit if people buy...In this form take a look at the questions going back to 2007, it has always been a Good time to Buy, we have always been at the bottom, we have always needed to buy now because interest rates may.....You would think after giving the wrong advice for so long (Advice which could cause financial damage to consumers if followed and has IMHO) they would be a little more hesitant..
DO NOT RISK YOUR MONEY BASED ON REAL ESTATE AGENTS TELLING YOU IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BUY..
Use your ability to become informed about the market your are interested in, what the unemployment/employment situation is, what is the impact of foreclosures is and are prices still declining?
Be smart and Be informed
What would happen to house prices if (when) the $8k buyers bribe & unfairly low interest rates go up to a reasonable level, say 7%? Only one who is very foolish would say the prices would stay the same. The $8k buyers bribe is the only thing supporting house prices now. The federal reserve is going to stop buying mortgage backed securities around March. When that happens interest rates WILL go up. When the buyers bribe dies (april 30) what will give a down payment to those who have used it as their down payment?
Q3 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Heat Map
Housing Predictor: 10 Million Foreclosures Through 2012 http://www.realtytrac.com/contentmanagement/realtytraclibrar
You have 2 options. Listen to realtors tell you that over the past few months the prices have gone up a little, or look at the numbers that show what is happening now and what is coming down the road.
Both show a piece of the puzzle. The past sales show the effects of bribing people. The foreclosures coming number shows what will be coming to make your house even cheaper.
There is a time period between now and that time (return to current prices) that Prices are lower....
Tax Credit and interest rate used as why to buy right now? No one knows what programs extensions ect. will happen due to the market/economy in the coming year/years.
Interests Rates? Who's called that one right? First it was They will never be lower that 5.8% then 5.5 then 5. then ?.
Wasn't it just a few months ago many Realtors in this forum were urging people to buy because rates were going up any day now? Rates are being used in an attempt to stabilize is someone suggesting we've stabilized?
"no one will know when the market hits rockbottom until it is too late." the could have, should have, didn't.
Does not matter if Prices continue to decline......it will only matter when the cost of buying returns to what it is at this point in time.
"According to studies of home buyers and sellers done over many years by the National Association of Realtors and also by that of New Jersey folks"
Studies or Surveys? How were the surveys conducted, how many questionnaires sent out, returned?
If you state the Truth based on studies or facts then perhaps stating exactly what studies or where your facts are found may assist someone or allow them to make their own determination...Is this the Study?
National Association of RealtorsÂ® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
It is actually a survey and the results were determined by this method...
NAR mailed an eight-page questionnaire in August 2008 to a national sample of 133,000 home buyers and sellers who purchased their homes between July 2007 and June 2008, according to county records. It generated 10,053 usable responses; the adjusted response rate was 7.9 percent. All information is characteristic of the 12-month period ending in June 2008 with the exception of income data, which are for 2007. Because of rounding and omissions for space, percentage distributions for some findings may not add up to 100 percent.....http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/11/home
Hardly a Comprehensive STUDY or anything I would consider a determination of the Truth...
"Obviously, as home ownership becomes more affordable, it enables more people to buy a home."
My point exactly....The home ownership becomes more affordable because of Price Declines....If the declines are continuing then home ownership becomes even more affordable so this would possibly not be the Best time to buy ......
Yes sales have increased a small % over last year but last year was not exactly a good year, what would that same % be if sales were compared to 2007..2006..2005?
"Looking at the big picture, there are enough positives to say it's reasonably safe to buy a house and many people can prove to you that it's not only safe but you'd be foolish to wait. But, again, is this the right time for you?"
Nothing like covering all the bases ; )
Maybe it's the best time for Nycdrone to buy maybe it isn't, Nydrone will decide that, I'm just saying he should CHECK the TRUTH/facts/information given to him (Which is hard to do when people mention studies then do do name them or allow anyone the opportunity to check your resources/truth)
I say people should check and verify what they are told, become informed and not just believe something because someone says it's true.....Not understanding how that is bad advice or why it would disturb people.
Is it because I do not accept NARS survey as a Comprehensive Study? .... Do You?
Is it because any one who doesn't say Buy right now is Anti-Realtor?
Regarding the market, the truth is that it has been improving here in Bergen County, NJ. The Home Buyer Tax Credit did give it some impetus and it's extension that now includes people who own homes and want to buy another will continue to give it impetus but that is not the entire story. If you go to http://www.Mortgage-x.com and look at it's interest rate graphs which start in 1963, you'll see that since then mortgage rates are now at their lowest ever. Lower interest rates means the cost of owning a home is less and this combined with the price depreciation that has taken place over the recent past means that housing affordability is much better than it has been in a long time. Obviously, as home ownership becomes more affordable, it enables more people to buy a home. Add in the tax credit and you can see why buyers are back.
At the same time there are more foreclosures and short sales coming onto the market. From what I'm seeing, this is almost like a second wave emanating from unemployment. Owners can no longer pay their mortgage because they've been out of work so long that they've gone through all their reserves. On a personal level, I find this heartbreaking.
Unemployment is the 800 pound gorilla that continues to delay the economy's comeback both here in NJ and nationally. However, NJ has a special advantage that is often overlooked - immigration.
Home buying is a direct result of the formation of families. The more families that are created, the more demand for housing. As one of the major centers of immigration, NJ's real estate market has always had an extra benefit from immigration.
Another factor is the truth that NJ's economy is much more diverse than one would think. We never have all of our eggs in one basket - not even here in Bergen County where jobs tied to Wall Street are large in number. Actually Hudson County started to nosedive about one year before we did due to the financial sector layoffs and consolidations because many of those workers and jobs moved there after September 11th creating a real boom and bust cycle.
Anyone who tells you to read a report because you can't trust market data is as wrong as the real estate agents who tell you that the market is great and we're past this cycle. What the data shows is that we are, in general, past the worst of it. Technically the bottom may have been months ago but that does NOT mean that prices did not continue to deflate. They did and for many homes they still are. What I am telling people based on the data I have from the New Jersey MLS is that I expect another 3-5% depreciation between now and the spring market at which time I expect all depreciation to have ended. Can I guarantee this? No but it's my best judgement. I also tell people at the same time that this depends on the location, type of product and price range because that IS the truth.
For example, there are towns in Bergen County that will have more sales in 2009 than in 2008 while others will have 25% fewer. Some where prices will have stabilized and others where more depreciation is coming. Since the beginning of 2009, the ratios of on the market to under contract has receded tremendously as the inventory has been sold out and you no longer see double digit ratios anywhere as you did almost everywhere 11 months ago.
No one can tell you when you're at the bottom and most people miss it - after all, you have to be past it in order to have the data that proves it did happen. Even if this is the right time for the market, if it's the wrong time in your life to move, why would you? Is this the right time for you? Looking at the big picture, there are enough positives to say it's reasonably safe to buy a house and many people can prove to you that it's not only safe but you'd be foolish to wait. But, again, is this the right time for you?
Shouldn't that be
With skepticism the truth is revealed, with pessimism jobs are harder to bring to completion and with negativism nothing gets done because it can't be anyway?
But being realistic about knowing the complete truth about what is, what was, and what is likely to be you will be most likely to find the truth?
By knowing the past, the present and what will be driving the future of real estate it is easy to see prices dropping in the not to distant future.
I would disagree. Not everyone buys a house to resell. Some buy it to live and then die of extreme old age in.
For that person there is no ROI involved. If they buy a house at a higher than needed price (it fell $50k after I bought) they either 1 paid to much cash for it and almost (1-4 years) immediately recognize their loss of capital. or 2 Their monthly payment is always going to be higher than it should have been. For 30 years they are paying more every single month than they needed to. Paying to much could even affect the taxes they pay (California).
I know realtors want to establish relationships so they can sell the same person 30 different houses over time. But a lot of people (like me) only want to buy one house and stay in it forever. For buyers like me paying to much hurts forever.
Eva, After seeing what NAR has said over the past several years I will NEVER trust ANYTHING they put out ever again. They are either complete frauds or fools. I allow others to decide which. When they said there will never be a better time to buy, that house prices have fallen and will go up, and more things that proved untrue over the past few years I doubt them completely.
I would be more willing to place a financial bet that anything NAR says is wrong than to bet my money and mortgage they are right. Maybe if NAR said there has never been a worse time to buy I would consider it a great time to look. But we know, that NAR are cheerleaders who will never say that even when true.
One thing I found out from that thread is that there is a marked difference in perspective between real estate investors and people who simply want to buy a house.
If you are looking to make a quick profit, in most markets it is definitely not a time to buy. If you are looking for a place to live and settle in for a while, and have the means to do it, go for it.
"no one will know when the market hits rockbottom until it is too late."
I've seen that sentiment expressed or stated often and always wonder (To late for what?)
When we hit bottom prices will be lower and if as they rise (if they'e declined further)
then for a time they will still be lower than now....so to late for what?
Regarding the market, the truth is that it has been improving here in Bergen County, NJ. The Home Buyer Tax Credit did give it some impetus and it's extension that now includes people who own homes and want to buy another will continue to give it impetus but that is not the entire story. If you go to http://www.Mortgage-x.com and look at it's interest rate graphs which start in 1963, you'll see that since then mortgage rates are now at their lowest ever. Lower interest rates means the cost of owning a home is less and this combined with the price depreciation that has taken place over the recent past means that housing affordability is much better than it has been in a long time. Obviously, as home ownership becomes more affordable, it enables more people to buy a home.
That appears to show that in normal times buying to sell in a short time does not make financial sense. The same way buying in a declining market where you are guaranteed to lose money does not make sense if you ever want to move. It does not make sense if you want to offer what the houses real value (by historic norms) is.
Thank-you for the Best Answer it was unexpected and very much appreciated..
I wish you the best.
Doesn't everyone speak from personal experience? I know people, have family, sit in a coffee shop, worked all my life, pay taxes, have bought and sold, raised children, have grandchildren..ect.. ect..
Everyone in this country sees what is going on with foreclosures, unemployment, the economy, upside down mortgages, home values and have friends/family affected by it.
Obviously I have formed my opinion and you have formed yours...I stated mine and you stated yours...The public can decide which one rings true with them I believe they are quite capable of doing so....Being a buyer/seller in this economy involves important decisions that can have huge consequences/impacts on their entire life...
I believe they want to hear all points of views and have access to all data/information to consider and trust they will make wise decisions once they have an opportunity to consider it all..Simple as that...
"With pessimism, better things do comeâ€¦negativism worsens everything including quality of life"
That's a lovely thought but I think right now buyers/sellers would rather know or be able to search for the Truth and decide for themselves what are their best options....
A good number of those who followed the good time to buy advice/opinions in 2006 2007 2008 are now suffering the consequences of doing so and that advice/opinions was given by Agents just as sincere as those here today but that does not change the fact that they were wrong and gave bad advice IMHO and consumers suffered because of it...
Let us just go with you say your opinion (cause that's what it is) I'll say mine and accept the fact the American public is intelligent enough to decide for themselves...It's all good
Are you speaking because of personal experience?
Well, I am!!!
For over a year now, I have experienced severely difficult times.
As an agent, I suffered the affects of the depression. As I mentioned on an earlier response, my productivity has taken off again. As far as unemployment, my husband, a seasoned software engineer who never had a problem getting work, was unemployed for one whole year and three weeks. He knocked on every door, rung every phone and exhausted every connection he had. No one had any work to offer. He recently received 2 big projects at the same time guaranteeing to provide him with several years of good income.
Perhaps this will help you acceptâ€¦
Housing & Economic Indicators
Housing and economic indicators provide real estate professionals with tools to interpret the market and apply that knowledge to their business. In addition to NARâ€™s own existing-home sales series, NAR Research monitors other indicators such as new-home sales, housing starts, producer prices, mortgage rates and more...
Existing-Home Sales (September) - 5.57 million units*
Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSÂ®
Existing-Home Sales Record Another Big Gain, Inventories Continue to Shrink
Washington, November 23, 2009
Driven by the first-time buyer tax credit, existing-home sales showed another big gain in October with a strong uptrend established over the past seven months, while inventories continue to decline, according to the National Association of RealtorsÂ®.
Existing-home sales â€“ including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops â€“ surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.
With pessimism, better things do comeâ€¦negativism worsens everything including quality of life. --Eva Maliarakis, Bergen County, NJ, 201-320-3678
I realize our economy is not where it should be and that the tax credit will soon be gone.
The question was-to wait or not to wait. I am not a gambling man. Please realize, prices and rates could go up very easily. If I needed and could afford to buy a home now, I would take advantage of what is out there and never look back.
I do know, however, that if you want to buy a home, and are planning on staying there for at least 5-7 years, then buy when you're ready to buy. If that's now, then fine, buy now....if you're not quite ready, then wait .
Are you a gambler?
Are you the kind of person who will kick themselves if the mortgage rates go up next year, and you didn't lock in the lower rate when you had the chance this year? Will you kick yourself if the home you buy now is worth less next year?
Only you know what your tolerance is for this uncertain economic climate.
I see you are in Manhattan.....so are my son and daughter-in-law (in 10023). They are'nt ready to move to the suburbs yet, but if they were, I wouldn't have a problem selling them something now. Most likely, they will buy a year from now...........maybe they will get a better price then, maybe not...maybe they will pay more for their mortgage , maybe not....but it all comes down to timing..........if your timing is right, then buy.........even if you buy now, and the prices dip somewhat, I have confidence that you will be fine down the road. That low mortgage rate, for me, is the main attraction in buying today.
Not sure if I have helped, or confused you more..but it's truly how I feel.............there is no definite right or wrong............
Whatever you do....best wishes!
Prudential NJ Properties
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 16.7 percent in the third quarter to a pace of 930,000 units and are 6.9 percent higher than a year ago.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 13.2 percent in the third quarter to a pace of 1.20 million and are 5.2 percent above a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales rose 11.3 percent in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.97 million and are 5.9 percent higher than the third quarter of 2008.
Existing-home sales in the West increased 5.6 percent in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.19 million and are 4.6 percent above a year ago.
I hope this helped out a bit on where the market is right now. Any other questions or if I did not answer your question feel free to keep asking.
What that means to you is that you should get a move on - even with improvement, the slowest time in any calendar year period is right now - the time between Thanksgiving and New Years - so jump in!
If your plans include NJ, I stand ready to assist. Good luck to you!
"Unwavering Commitment to Service"
Find success at http://www.feenick.com
Ridgeco Properties North
Bergen County, NJ
From the mortgage prospective, I would tell you that things can't get much better than what we have now. There is nothing stopping rates from going up to 6%.
Now, real estate is local, so I can't be specific about your location. And I know it's still depressed in some areas like Las Vegas. But in Northern Virginia, the market is anywhere from luke warm to red hot right now. A few examples comparing October 2009 to October 2008: Fairfax City single family detached homes: average sold price up 38% ($441,000 to $607,194). Number of listings down 33%. Days on market: 56 (down from 128).
Fairfax County single family attached: average sold price up 9% ($317,218 to $346,201). Number of listings down 29% Days on market: 36 (down from 96).
Fairfax County single family detached: average sold price up 5% ($547,424 to $575,738). Number of listings down 25%. Days on market: 77 (down from 110).
Prince William County single family attached: average sold price up 13% ($155,233 to $175,578). Number of listings down 45%. Days on market: 38 (down from 111).
You want an anecdote: I showed a short sale to a couple last spring. It was a nice home, good location. It was priced at $180,000. In 3 days, it was taken off the market, with 8 offers, 7 of them above $180,000. I believe the seller took an offer at $195,000, all cash.
You want an anecdote: In my real estate office, one agent who handles foreclosures reports it's not unusual for her to get 15 offers in a week after listing a property.
You want an anecdote: In my real estate office, we have weekly sales meetings, where agents talk about their listings and about properties that they're going to be listing. A couple of weeks ago, one agent was describing a property (I think it was her mother-in-law's) she was going to be listing--maybe a 50 year old home, good location, but not in great condition. As soon as she described it, two other agents in the offfice came up to her and said they had clients who were interested. The property wasn't even listed yet. It probably sold without ever making it to the MLS.
How many more anecdotes would you like? I've got 15 or 20, all along the same lines.
The only properties in my area that are taking a long time to sell are the luxury (in this area, $1 million or more) homes. Other than that, the market's really taken off.
Hope that helps.
Things have stabilized quite a bit and it is a GREAT time for a first-time buyer. The tax credit has been expanded and extended, the interest rates are still very low and prices are great. There couldn't be a better combination of factors coming together to point to this as a historically terrifice time to buy.
Halstead Property, LLC