You're partially right and partially wrong, here's why: Condo sales and all sales in Sobe are up because the area is SMALL and so in-demand. But you have NONE of the monkey business going on with mortgages now like you did in the past 10 years. No 'stated income' loans, 'no income' loans etc. No cleaning ladies buying 6 units to flip for spec, etc. Much of the money coming into the RE market everywhere today is cash. Cash is still king and it makes for a healthy RE market.
We are at the bottom of the first inning for RE in all of Miami Beach. There will be lots of building this decade, but as long as the Fed keeps the banks in line and buyers MUST come with substantial amounts of ca$h to buy, we'll be okay.
It sounds scary and could become very, very scary if banks loosen their rules of lending. This would be a disaster.
Boca Raton-Miami Beach, FL
First, the buyers have much better intentions now. In the mid 2000's during the pre-construction boom, most of the buyers were investors with unrealistic expectations trying to buy a lot with little down. Now, we are seeing more stable buyers, end users. Either first, second or third home owners who are looking to purchase properties in Miami Beach, not only as a 'more realistic investment' but also to use their homes and most of these buyers are paying cash.
Secondly, you must put the South Beach market in perspective. South Beach is roughly a 20 block by 10 block neighborhood. There is a limited number of homes in this area but the demand is enormous. Miami Beach, South Beach more particularly, is well known throughout three continents: North America, South America and Europe. There only needs to be a modest demand in these markets to exhaust the supply of available homes in South Beach.
In this Realtor's humble opinion, the South Beach real estate market is here to stay.