I own a duplex on the Noe Valley/ Glen Park border and keep an eye on home prices and I can tell you that the market here is surprisingly strong. Even though prices have been going down mostly in California, they have gone up slightly in this area. A lot of people being priced out of Noe are ending up in Glen Park and it is gentrifying as a result. Properties are mostly going for a bit over asking price and nothing stays on the market long. Good luck in your house hunt.

P,
First understand that the over/under asking price question depends on if the asking price is over or under market value. What is market value? It is the price that a buyer is willing to pay to buy the property. How does a buyer decide what to pay for a property? A buyer enters into the market, shops and pays attention to value on properties that they compare to the house they want to live in. A seller does the same thing. Realtors work in the market so we have the tools and experience to shorten the buyers or sellers learning curve.
To help you determine what you will pay for a home of your choice, you need to understand what your perceived value is of this house over the other houses that would also meet your criteria but are not your first choice. Then you need to decide is the house priced at, above or below the current market for comparable properties. This is how you determine your offer price. Other factors enter in to this first step of a purchase such as time and motivation of the seller etc.
Glen Park has always been a good neighborhood and the people who live there love it very much. There is a new library and a new grocery store. There are good restaurants and shops in the village. It is centrally located in the city with good access to public transportation and freeways.
On the subject of “the continued softness of San Francisco real estate” I disagree with. All data is pointing to continued appreciation in SF. SF is experiencing a slowing in sales volume due to the tightening of credit that has affected entry level buyers because many lenders are requiring sizable down payments. We are already seeing change on that front from the established banks that don’t resell their loans and want to have the relationship with the client. Single family homes in the city will always have a market. No more are being built.
So P, go ahead and buy your home and enjoy the neighborhood.

Glen Park is a very desirable neighborhood, especially with young families. If you have been keeping an eye on what is available in that neighborhood, you have probably noticed that inventory is pretty limited. The desirablity coupled with low inventory keeps your investment in that neighborhood pretty safe. Of course it is property specific, but for the majority of the homes sold in the past six months went over asking.

Your assessment of the market is correct in that experts predict the market to stay soft into 2008. Let's look at the facts. Even in a soft market, a majority of the homes in Glen Park are still selling above asking price. Also, 2008 is only two months away. Assuming we see the upswing start to happen in the spring, which would go along with regular market trends, I'd say the time to start looking would be now.

The biggest mistake would be to wait too long. I know everybody wants to catch the market at the lowest point, but right after the lowest point prices begin to rise. Because inventory is limited in Glen Park you should start keeping your eyes peeled, or have your agent keep their eyes peeled for you. If the right house comes along, a couple of months won't make a difference in the long term.

Hi P, Here is my .02 ( unabashed). BUY! If you wait for the market to be " just right"...You will miss the boat, so to speak. Flipping..NO! Buying to hold for 3-7yrs...YES! Absolutely. Ask this...Are Realtors buying houses right now? I think you will get an overwhelming yes, we are as much as we can...I sold my personal home in May just to be in this market with cash! Now, have fun shopping!

Michael
http://www.michaelrobertshomes.com