Wow, since I posted below back on Sept 7th, every single house I referenced in the post is either still on the market or has been delisted because it's going into foreclosure. And a check today of that market indicates that nearly every re-sale listing is a short sale, listed below it's prior sale price.

Cazom should change his name to IzWrong.

Most of the folks who bought in 2004 - 2006 in these markets used exotic loan products with five year option periods. Those exotics (e.g. Option ARMS) are going to reset over the next 12 - 18 months. If that plays out, the San Ramon market is only just starting its major correction...

4238 sqft. Unfortunately, that price is no longer valid

What is the built area of 7818 Kennard Lane please?

Michael, trust your instincts and your research. Cazom's a shill (and a forum bully). There is significant downward pressure in the San Ramon market, especially in the Windemere build. They are so desperate that they paid off the SF Biz Times to run an article trying to stir up interest and close the developement:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2009/09/07/s…

The reality is that folks who bought during the 2004 to 2007 range are under significant downward pressure. Lots of reasons, including job losses, exotic loan resets, or just the plain fact that almost anyone who bought out there during that timeframe will be hopelessly underwater on their current loan to value ratio. Why continue to make mortgage payments on a $1M loan when your current market value is $800K and you don't qualify for any of the assistance programs?

The Windemere folks want to close out the build before all those inverted mortgages go into foreclosure, hence the PR campaign via the BizJournel. PT Barnum made a fortune knowing that a "sucker is born every minute", so no suprise that there's a slight up tick in activity because of the summer rush, the foreclosure moratorium, and the NAR propaganda.

Instead of looking at backward statistics to predict the future (which RE do), why not look at future indicators? When I ran a search on resale properties in the Windemere build, I found that over 30% were selling for less than the original purchase price (short sales). In five minutes of searching, I found these examples:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Ramon/539-Adriatic-Ct-94582/hom…
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Ramon/2348-Magnolia-Bridge-Dr-9…
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Ramon/1335-Kellybrook-Way-94582…
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Ramon/232-Cullens-Ct-94582/home…
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Ramon/2309-Baker-Way-94582/home…
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Ramon/5085-Holborn-Way-94582/ho…

-Hawkeye

michael i think you are a plain idiot, simple, you infest these boards with drivel that helps no one. can you tangibly say what your damn point is here, say it very clearly, are u saying you can get houses less than they were 2 months ago, or will it happen in 2 months, what's your point dude, other than spewing pessimism? don't know what the heck you are referring with the 970k? this is where you are getting delusional. i'm a home owner and we by far got one of the most aggressive prices in windermere, i won't divulge more to someone like you. now tell us why you are writing stuff here, go away please, no one needs your nonsense goofbag.....

Cazom, I think you're just plain stupid. Someone posed this question months ago, when the market wasn't so good. You claimed 970k was a good price. People differed. I'm just proving that you were wrong a couple months ago. I'm not talking about now. The fact is, a couple of months ago, you could get a better price than 970k. You didn't want to believe it because you over paid for your house. Sucker...

Factory21, both the homes you list have been sold at full price, basically the numbers you listed.

Michael you seem to be pretty naive thinking the market is still where it was when Dow was at 6600, unfortunately it's not. Lennar is not taking anything less than full price now, period!! If you can intelligently refute it, you'll get the cake.

There's chatter of them raising prices for the next few homes that'll come out. Santorini already increased prices and so was it done on Palmoa. Btw, all of the current phase of Santorini is sold out and so did Paloma. Also, there seems to be about 11 homes left from Lennar and on plan3's only 3, so there you have it. Once these guys leave I can only guess how the market usually reacts...

Yes, I'm a cheer leader as I'm a resident but I'm also objective unlike you who seems to be a born pessimist. Look at reality dude! Facts are on my side....

AFAIK, recent sales are one of sets of data the agents/appraisers use in determining home value. Of course, there is a time lag with closings so agents will try to use other sets of data like pending sales, but these are harder to come by.
At this moment, Lennar has posted Site #730 for 951,700 and Site #728 for $953,700 (Plan 2s), and Site #718 for 1,047,600 (Plan 3). They have a 1% internet discount so you can subtract 10K to come out with what Lennar will accept without any negotiation. Cazom's previous pricing post about plan 2's is way high, but 960K for a plan 3 nowadays is probably wishful thinking at the current rate of sales.

Michael,

I felt it was meaningless to post new home "recent sold" data because you don't know when they assign the contract with builder. For instance one of my friends purchased Oliveta plan 3 in April, which price was under $870k with more than $40k upgrade included. But moving-in date may be around Oct or Nov. But it is impossible to get such a deal today. As far as I notice, most of sales have increased the price more or less after April.

More imaginary stuff, as you put it, but another sale for under 970k:

352 Dawes Court Lennar Homes to R. Srinivasan for $968,000
http://www.trulia.com/property/1081064518-352-Dawes-Ct-San-R…

Go ahead and keeping cheerleading for Lennar and I'll keep posting the facts.

dude, just know that Lennar increased a Stafford Plan 2 (not a plan 3) from $1046000 to $1076000, for the first time, they are bidding up prices, never heard in recent times. The times you quote are when the Dow was at 6600.

Go try to fight all you want, aint gonna happen, that you'll get those rock bottom prices back....no way no doubt!

Argue all you want, here are some more facts. Another plan 3 sold for 930k:

7807 Kennard Lane Lennar Homes to H. & V. Parikh for $930,500

Seems like you are fighting a lot of people everyday, you never can and will buy a house, pls take it from me. Don't know what's wrong with you, you seem delusional and keep referring to some imaginary stuff!

Did you blinds included in that ad? Did you see backyard landscaping in that ad? Did you see multiple sprinkler systems in that ad? What's listed is what comes usually with every home, even though mentioned as an "upgrade"

Get lost pal, no one here is ready to listen to your "nostradamus" like idiotic predictions, keep your thoughts to yourself if you can't afford and let others make their own decisions. Your analysis is useless!!

Learn some English buddy, no one can understand you. And now we know you're the same guy as before, the guy that claimed to have bought a Lennar home.

Btw, you said no more upgrades, well, looks like you're wrong again, 26k in wood flooring upgrades included in this home:

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/reb/1256101904.html

What's the deal with you dude, seriously what's wrong? You are saying you would not beleive someone saying you straight the details, do you believe anything? Why are you so paranoid?? Seriously, do you always make have these perceptions? Not just about home buying but have people highlighted this to you ever?

Pls live in your "blind" world, it's funny how you stage all your posts at the doom and gloom out there....it's a better world than that....just go see the sales in the last few weeks, i do have the links for the sale prices, you don't need to the SALES person for that, things are getting better, faster, than you can go possibly purchase.

Peace!!

I don't understand why you're so insistent on accepting what's out there. You seem to be fighting really hard for Lennar. You sound just like the previous person who supposedly bought a Lennar home that was trying to make the same arguments. The sales person can say that the home doesn't include any upgrades, but it doesn't mean you can't negotiate it into your deal. This is the same with the price. Although it's listed at 1.01, it doesn't mean you have to pay full price. This forum is for about home buying and advice. If you want to pay full price, go ahead. For those people that don't, negotiation is always an option.

Michael, you seem to be hung up about your own knowledge all the time, why don't you listen for a second, i mentioned in extreme clarity that Jody at the sales office gave this data, did you bother to call her? I did and she gave me this straight, so don't try to fight this....per instructions maybe they can't divulge all info, but I got it from the horses mouth....no upgrades pal. And I also hard from them officially as well that all upgrades ceased to exist after April closing, so if you can disprove it, I'm ready to listen to ya!!

No Upgrades/Freebies after Apr!!

That's a good chart. I agree with people when they say that demand for homes have picked up. I think prices in the past 3 months have gone up 5-10%. However, I believe it was an artificial bump in price due to tax incentives and low interest rates. Interest rates have climbed and we're going to see some slow down again in the next couple of months. Job losses continue to climb along with short sales/foreclosures hitting the market. And homes above the 800k range have a tougher time selling due to the new down payment requirements and jumbo loans.

If folks are looking to buy, I think the Escalante model home that's for sale is a good deal. Model home that's back to open space for 960k:
http://www.lennar.com/New-Homes/California/San-Francisco/Esc…
You can probably negotiate some discounts given the home is already finished.

Factory21, nice chart, thanks! I collected all the lennar sales as well, just didn't bother to put into chart. I do noticed though some of the pleasanton weekly recordings are incorrect, e.g they acutally swapped 2 homes(plan1, and plan3) on King's road. Also I heard there're homes sold to lennar employees in which case there's extra few % off the market price. Some of the lower priced one(s) might be because of this.
right now the buying demands in Windemere is indeed there. If not in hurry for school, maybe it worth waiting for after the summer. but who knows ...

Ok, I will bite on this. As a prospective buyer I've been making all sorts of charts with publicly available data (same data available to pleasanton weekly and other online news sites). Sucking out all the sales data for Lennar in the Stafford area and then grouping the data according to sq. feet yielded this chart (click on link below).

The sales agent is not going to tell you what they have negotiated with a previous buyer. You may have saw the home before and it didn't have those features, but it doesn't mean the buyer didn't negotiate them into the deal. Also, the market hasn't picked up big time bud. A current plan 3's listing price is only $1 million. It's probably going to sell less than that.

There are plenty of resale homes, bank owned and short sales, that are below 900k that are around 4000 sqft.

Because I'm in the neighborhood and a simple visit to the Lennar office or a call to Jody would answer this question. Feel free to call the sales office and ask Jody directly. Good or bad, true or not, the market has picked up big time bud, accept it!

I don't work for Lennar, no.

With all that said, these prices were an absolute steal for those houses...

How do you know that it didn't include upgrades, backyard, blinds, etc??? That's something only Lennar and the owner would know. Do you work for Lennar?

Right on Peter, you got my point. To an earlier response, we know it was sold for 926k, but the fact remains that this house did not have any upgrades or the backyard done or any blinds that came with it and neither any sprinkler systems.

Now the homes that got sold in April had all of the above included. Lennar just removed all the freebies when they saw the market come back hard, so end of April closing was the last of this stuff.

The new homes don't have any of the above either and still are selling for close to $1.5mill understanding that some of these have a mountain at the back...

I heard recent plan 3 were going at around 950k, but keep in mind no two homes are the same, and each sale has its own unique circumstance. Now the only stafford homes left are on Dawes CT, which has larger lot & no back neighbor, so expect higher price. Demand for windemere homes surged recently, heard stafford home selling very fast too. But never know, maybe after summer thing will turn sour again...

Please read my question and answers before you answer. I'm talking about a home that has already sold. There was a question posed a couple months back asking about a good price for Plan 3 Stafford place. The argument from folks was that 970k was good. So I wanted to show that sales show (this is in a home that was just closed) that the price can be lower.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7818-Kennard-Ln-SPEC709082…

The home that sold for 926k is in fact a plan 3

I would say pls check it up before you answer.....it's a plan 2 and it's on Dawes st.

http://lennar.com/New-Homes/California/San-Francisco/Staffor…

Just so folks can get the reality here, there were 9 homes sold a couple weekends back (1 day), and the only available plan 3 now is in Nov. Lennar is NOT negotiating on the price....if someone finds out they are, CAN you please post here.....

That was a plan 3 at 4,241 sqft.

Just so folks know, and to keep this in perspective:

- this house is not even a corner house
- it's lot is about 6000 or so I beleive which is less than most standard stafford houses
- it didn't come with any upgrades
- it didn't have it's backyard done and didn't have any blinds or sprinkler systems

the other homes during Mar/Apr had all the upgrades, bigger lots and more. Now since this was sold the market had picked up a lot and plan 2 now is listed at $1.05k I beleive. there you go....

Good price. Which model is this?