Statistics from Metrolist:

Past 90 days (June 1st to today) compared to the 90 days immediately preceding (March 1st through May 31st) No vacant lots or res income properties included.

Folsom: Lower,,,, Carmichael : Mixed { higher on median, lower on average.} and Fair Oaks: Higher

In the earlier period Carmichael had 122 completed sales, Average sold price was $290,079 The median was $238,000 The costliest house was $960,000

In the recent period Carmichael had 130 sales (+6.5%) Average sold was $284,942 (-1.7%) Median was $245,250 (+3%) Top sale was $1,700,000 (+77%)

In the earlier period Fair Oaks had 90 completed sales, Average sold price was $262,197 The median was $235,000 The costliest house was $610,000

In the recent period Fair Oaks had 103 sales (+11.4%) Average sold was $279,028 (+6.4%) Median was $250,000 (+6.3%) Top sale was $770,000 (+26%)

In the earlier period Folsom had 192 completed sales, Average sold price was $376,799 The median was $355,000 The costliest house was $895,000

In the recent period Folsom had 189 sales (-1.6%) Average sold was $360,833 (-4.2%) Median was $351,000 (-1.1%) Top sale was $850,000 (-5%)

My analysis of the stats above: Fair Oaks had both median and average price increases in the 6% range. The decline in average price seems to cancel out the increase in median price for Carmichael. The Folsom median decline was 1.1%, if extrapolated out to a full year would be at a 4.4% annual rate of decline. Not a huge drop for a single year, but not attractive either when other areas are flat.

I see the price chart as relatively flat for the past six months in all 3 areas. For future value growth over the next five to ten years, I would put my money into the older areas of Carmichael and Fair Oaks.

Folsom did not decline as deeply during the real estate crash as other parts of Sac county. The median price in Folsom is now 40% and 43% higher than the median sale prices in Fair Oaks and Carmichael, in the earlier period the Folsom premium was 51% and 49% respectively.

This suggests a trend that Folsom's dominant pricing power position eroded slightly in the past ninety days.

I predict that a few years from now the premium for Folsom over Fair Oaks and Carmichael will be less than 30%.

Strictly my opinion: For long term percentage gains; Fair Oaks. Carmichael comes a close second. Folsom will continue to be a great place to live.

I think all three of the areas have held their values better than some other areas, but mostly because their growth has not been mainly realized in the 2004-2007 timeframe, when the surge in buyers also has meant the highest rates of foreclosures in those areas.

Each has a different 'personality'. In Carmichael you'll find more homes uniformly built in the 1960-1970 range. Many more with only one bath. Higher end homes near the river have wonderful large deep lots. Fair Oaks has quaint downtown area where chickens run freely. It's not uncommon for someone that had bought a home, razed it, and built a larger, newer home on the same lot. Fair Oaks has a combination of old and new, a large variety of custom homes, each one different than the last. Folsom is still growing. They have large areas still undeveloped with both commercial and residential developments still being considered.

I would suggest you not try to project values so much as see which area meets your lifestyle and home preferences better. Our real estate market, at this point, is more predicated on job recovery than anything else, and the ebb and flow of prices is based more on a specific neighborhood vs. the town.

I live in Folosm and own a second home in Carmichael. Folsom has held up well relatively speaking, as most if not all areas are still down compared to this time last year. Folsom is a "newer" area with more uniformity and therefore a little easier to value. Carmichael is an older area and has a greater diversity of property types. It is neighborhood driven as far as values, meaning property values can change quickly depending upon specific location. Fair Oaks is somewhere inbetween, probably more comparable to Carmichael.

There is debate as to property values continuing to fall or if we have truely bottomed. There are predictions of a new "flood" of bank owned homes when the foreclosure moratorium ends Sept. 15 and it remains to be seen if this will happen and how it will affect values. If you are buying for long term, in my opinion, it is better to get a good interest rate on a house you want. In other words, don't risk interest rates rising in order to try and time the bottom of the market.

Here are a couple of web sites you should find interesting. http://www.city-data.com and http://www.estately.com. The second site has stats for specific towns. You can also go to the Sacramento Association of Realtors site for more stats. Good luck.

Tim Hobbs
Flat Fee Realty
916-988-4444