No telling what the value will be in 5 years. While condos do not tend to appreciate as quick as SFH and TH. I believe you will see some appreciation in 5 years.
There is one really good reason for not buying a new condo in this market, and that is the big risk that the builder will, to close out the project under pressure from his lender, really discount the last 10% or so of the condos from the price paid by earlier buyers. I have seen this happen dozens of times in this market. This will really hurt your chances of resale at a price that will allow you to go to settlement without paying money to your lender.
I think you may well be better off renting until your circumstances permit buying a resale two-bedroom condo in a development with a long term record of good management closer in. Why a two-bedroom? Historically, they have held their value better. Note that it's all about the location, however, and a one-bedroom really close in could be a good buy. When you do buy, you need an agent who is familiar with lender guidelines. Resale condos are not that easy to finance now, and could be a better buy because of this. See the Web reference for financing issues.
Pre-owned furnishings, antiques, knick-knacks, collectibles, etc.
Elan at East Market 4480-90 Market Commons Drive Fairfax 22033
(in the Whole Foods shopping center)
Saturday April 28th 2012 11 AM to 3 PM Cash & carry only
I bought a property there less than 6 mos ago. Location is great. If your biggest problem is commute, there's no way to escape it in the DC Metro area. The awesome thing about Elan is that it has a FREE (well, it is included in your HOA fees which are still well priced) shuttle to the Metro. SO, you can relax, sleep, work, whatever while going to work. Hope this helps!
You can view all condos their and get a good comparison of the prices. You should also review all the condos for sale in that Fair Lakes area. You will be able to determine which is a fair value.
With all that said, if you prefer to live in a condo you will love the Elan at East Market Condos. Great location!
It is useful to choose a buyer's agent in this process. A full-time agent lives and breathes this information and will be a great asset to you in your search. If you choose to explore this, I can meet with you for a no obligation initial consultation to see if we will work well together!
But let me be frank about your question and scenario. Buying directly from a condo builder is completely foolish and ill advised as a consumer. You inherently cannot get the best price that way...EVER. You need to find an agent who has lots of experience negotiating new construction condos and get a better price than you ever could on your own.
My video details the reality of negotiating new construction condos.
Erik j. Weisskopf,ABR,CDPE,CRS,GRI