"I would love to see some facts showing I am wrong. Do NOT give any NAR crap. They have zero credibility to anyone who has watched them for over a year."
I wait your links to facts and articles to PROVE I am wrong. I asked for that. NAR has no credibility in predictions. They lost it. If you were honest you would know that to be true.
Being smart enough to look for the very details that can prove an investment to be a good or a bad one is not being cynical. It is what all smart businessmen do. You missed one post I gave. One person asked if prices would go up in philadelphia. I showed the forecast link below. It expects prices to go up in philly by about 2.7%. I shared that. Does that make me positive and non-cynical? No, It makes me honest.
I have nothing to gain here. I will not gain or lose a commission or sale if I tell someone the truth. Instead of just saying something like... the economy sucks, we will never have jobs in this country again, and housing will go to $18 so you should not buy...(which would be negative and cynical) I give general ideas. I post links for people to see. i simply uncover the truth. Nothing more or less than that.
When you tried to rebuff me you could not give anything to show I was wrong. instead, you personally attack me.
"Dan, I think that it's good that the world is not filled with people who are as negative and cynical as you appear to be from all your posts. At least it is likely that once people spend some time reading these threads, they can take what you say with a grain of salt realizing where it is coming from."
I posted a few of my old replies below with links. I challenge you to read them and say that again.
The hard to believe part here, I have several realtors on here who like me. They realize I believe in falling prices. But they also see more. I write here with integrity. I share useful links. I try to be helpful with no gain.
I even told one man now was the time to buy. He was in his 70's. What his rent was, compared to buying at a certain price range it made sense to buy now. If he was much younger, I would likely have said wait 1-2 years. But he had cash and a big rent payment. look below to see
We see an answer that tries to show a buyer the things that might help them to get a home, now, not years.
Below I tried to explain to someone how they could not afford what they wanted to do. I went into a lot of detail so they could get it.
Who here as a professional realtor has gone into as much depth as I did below? I did all I could to explain HOW to buy a home for under $100k NOW.
"As far as buying goes, if you are buying as an investor, I personally do not think it is necessarily a good time unless you find something at below market that you can fix up and flip. These things are starting to happen again. "
There is zero difference between buying as an investor or as someone who wants to buy to live in. Either one should buy knowing they will not lose money in a short time.
I am done. I could continue, but frankly, in a game of wits it is not that much fun playing against an unarmed opponent.
Remove $6k for realtors commissions. Then remove taxes, insurance, any repairs that happened. We must not forget the closing costs we paid to buy the house. Those never come back.
Compared to renting. If you could rent for $200 a month less than buying.
$200 x 12 (months) = $2,400 x 7 (years) = $16,800
Which is really better financially?
Assume a flat to negative value market. Add in the hassle of selling. It is better off to rent than to buy.
If you assume prices will go up, I will ask did you make that same assumption in 2006? Did it turn out to be correct?
Renting has zero risk of owing more than you can sell for. It has zero risk for expensive repairs.
Buying, none of those risks are even close to being zero.
Sedona Az is expected to have a 1.7% increase in prices.
Scottsdale Az is expected to lose 12.4% of house prices next year.
Notice the first part. Sedona is expected to go UP 1.7%
yes, scottsdale is expected to drop a lot, but when I show both is that negative, or is that being, well... real?
look at my reply on Tue Dec 22 2009, 20:29
I said" Go there, look at the column on the left. Click on your state and find a forecast for what they expect to happen to prices. It looks like they expect philly to go up by 2.7%. Do your research."
"I just found this and wanted to give you a perspective that could well be very valid. Just because it is opposite what I think and showed below does not matter. It is another piece of the puzzle for you to factor in. In the end you must educate yourself. You should make an informed decision then you have to live with the choice you make. To buy at this time or not. You make the choice, you live with the results. "
Is that cynical? Is that negative? I told them prices are expected to go up. I wanted them to make the right decision for them.
>> Dan, I think that it's good that the world is not filled with people who are as negative and cynical as you appear to be from all your posts. At least it is likely that once people spend some time reading these threads, they can take what you say with a grain of salt realizing where it is coming from.
Dan's post was logical, thoughtful and backed by multiple pieces of solid data. And in your opinion, he is negative and cynical? I'm REALLY confused. I would wager that nearly every real estate professional has been advocating every day from 2006-2008 what you state below, and I quote:
"everyone is entitle to a place to live. If they can afford a home, there is no better time than now with rates at such historically low levels. There are tax advantages that can make owning cheaper than renting, and sooner or later prices will go up again."
With few exceptions these Buyers are likely not happy with their purchase. But don't be confused about what I am saying. Look - I'm NOT saying that you all don't have a job to do and the right to earn a living. Far from it. BUT ... if you wish to take Dan on with a credible arguement, it just might need to consist of something more than expressing that "he's a negative nancy".
I DID buy last year, a multifamily were the #s were just fantastic and I couldn't pass it up. I also very lucky to have sold in Nov 2007 and then watched the big market tumble. My previous neighbors watched their homes drop $200,000 in value in 12 months. That might have been me. That's called "it is what it is", not cynicism. I also watched many "pros" continue to advocate to their clientelle the standard line during that time. It is what it is ...
Dan has good reasons to hold off on buying. I am looking to buy another property myself. It took 6 months to find the one I bought last year and it might take that or longer to find my next one. Any consumer who isn't being very careful indeed to guard their own interests won't find consolation if they buy now in the wrong area and lose 20% in a year ...
Anyway my answer is YES it's a good time to buy a home - but it needs to be the right opportunity and in the right area. The bad times are not over and it will remain a buyers market for some time to come. No one NEED rush out to buy today or next month or in 6 months. And ... more of them know it now too ...
Look at the links below. They ALL say to wait. At the bottom is a nationwide housing price predictor. It is based on actual research into certain city areas in different states.
3 reasons home prices are heading lower
Housing Inventory Still Dramatically Oversupplied â€” Before You Add In The Foreclosures
3 Mortgages Get Worse For Each 1 that Improves
Resets Projected to Cause Mortgage Crisis in 2010
Q3 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Heat Map
A nationwide forecast for real estate is below. Look on the left side, click on your state
Sedona Az is expected to have a 1.7% increase in prices.
Scottsdale Az is expected to lose 12.4% of house prices next year.
Markets will improve in most of the U.S. with average housing deflation forecast at 8.7% nationally. The figure represents the lowest amount of deflation on an annual basis in the four years Housing Predictor has been forecasting markets. Some areas of the country will surprise homeowners with appreciation, while especially hard hit areas will see a repeat of double-digit deflation, despite rising home sales.
* Interest rates are at their lowest point for the past 50 years.
* Prices have fallen and are likely bouncing along the bottom. There are good values to be had.
* There are significant tax benefits to owning a home.
* Home ownership encourages investment in your portfolio and in the community.
Go for it!
In Michigan many of the foreclosures have dropped the home values below 2000.
With the tax incentives ending in April what better time than now.
Of course you first have to be able to get a loan which has been increasingly harder due to the newer guidelines.
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Long Realty Company
If someone can barely buy now based on fico score and payment tomorrow they may not qualify at all. For that person to buy today could give them the only chance at buying a house they will ever get (barring personal financial improvements).
If they had enough money saved to cover the down and closing, then would still have enough left over to pay some unexpected expenses this could be a good time for a one shot house. They have one shot at it. It could be an incredible amount of years or never before they could be able to buy again. If they buy a forever house, it could make sense. If they bought for 5-7 years, I would think not.
My whole concept is to have people make smart financial decisions that are 95+% likely to work out well for them. There is no such thing as 100%. Job loss, sickness, and many unforeseen and unpredictable things can happen over 30 years. I do not want to see todays buyer be tomorrows foreclosure statistic as the 2004-2006 buyer is today's foreclosure statistic.
If some low income and low fico score people could buy a house for $100k today, and see it go to $60k tomorrow if they live in it forever it will not make much difference. True when you figure the rest they would throw away during the same timeframe. But this is only true if they can afford to keep the house.
Your points are well taken and, as always, right on. My perspective was not to say that buyers are without risk or that the home prices will only improve, or sellers will never be more motivated. Rather, I was trying to emphasize the cross section of the various components of purchasing a home are not likely to be aligned any more favorably for a borrower. Just as I would not recommend someone buy today just because rates are low, I would not recommend someone wait just because prices have not stopped declining.
The more resources a borrower exhausts, the less attractive and more problematic a purchase can be. Ultimately it is their choice, but I counsel people away from spending every cent of savings or utilizing the maximum amount of their monthly income to purchase a home.
If a borrower can afford 5% down, today they are only required to put 3.5% down and can reserve savings for "furnaces and transmissions"; today, a buyer can negotiate that a seller pay 6% towards closing costs; and today, a borrower's payment with a 650 FICO includes no premium on an FHA loan, and is based on rates in the low 5's for a 30-year fixed.
Waiting for prices to come down will probably mean having to deal with tighter lending guidelines. Borrowers will likely HAVE to put 5% down and only be able to accept 3% contributions from the seller; have a risked based premium included in their payment,--currently conventional borrowers are charged more if there FICO is a 739, and the premium goes up as the FICO goes down; and have to accept a higher interest rate, as the Fed removes the artificial ceiling it has created.
Under this scenario, a cautious borrower who buys a home today will have more money in the bank and a lower payment then one who waits. If the same borrower waits, they are likely to have to purchase a less expensive home, or not buy at all, for fear of being maxed out. It is possible that home prices decline enough that a borrower's purchasing power has increased, but I find it unlikely that the pace of a price decrease will completely offset a higher down payment requirement, risked based pricing, and increasing interest rates.
Today's buyers have the luxury of being potentially the most informed buyers in the history of real estate sales. With this said, buyers have the ability to chart a safe course that meets their personal needs relative to any local market.
Do we feel it is a good time to buy.....from the buyer's perspective, an important factor is their level of motivation. As agents, we often refer to the seller's level of motivation but often overlook the buyer's. Regardless of the economy or local market conditions, there will always be people that need to find a place to live.
Thus, it's always a good time to buy.....it's the conditions that surround this initiative that one needs to either accept or reject..........
Which is absolutely true, at least, the last part. Just because this is the Last Golden Age of Easy Credit doesn't mean that people who haven't been able to manage their debts in the past will magically be able to handle their Brand Spanking New Mortgage.
It is often said, buy low, sell high. Well, it's low now. Then, again, you shouldn't run with a sprained ankle, either!
I do agree with you on one thing. If someone has really crappy credit, and wants to own there is likely to never be a better time to get a loan to buy a house for them. But there is also likely never to be a better time to risk losing a lot of equity of they do buy. If the low income no down buyer buys to stay forever, they may not have another chance without fixing their life situation. But that also means they risk the most if they have some expensive repairs come up. If that kind of buyer lost a furnace, needed to replace the shingles, and had to replace their transmission or whole car they would be in trouble they could not handle.
I don't think the range of opinions expressed here have anything to do with what will actually happen in the future.
Like football fans before the big game, there is a diversity of opinion, and lots of reasoning as to why the outcome MUST be as predicted.
This sort of discussion really isn't any different.
Wow. The range and disagreement of the answers clearly indicates that we have a long way to go for an economic recovery. Most investors would agree with the sentiment that it is always a good time to buy, if you find the right situation. Most would also agree that research and diligence is important to prevent a purchase that appears much better than it actually is.
I am of the opinion that home prices are stabilizing, but have not yet hit the lowest point we will see so, if I based my recommendation solely on home prices, I would wait. However, the intersection of prices, inventory, interest rates, loan availability and seller anxiety are likely never going to be better than they are at the moment.
The government incentives are there, low rates and tax credits; the market incentives are there, high inventory, low demand, affordable prices; the psychological incentives are there, sellers feel they are losing money the longer they hold a property, everyone understands this to be a buyerâ€™s market.
People that should definitely not wait are those with marginal, 650 FICO, credit, small down payments or tight debt to income ratios. The FHA reserve fund is low, so we should expect criteria to stiffen allowing the fund to recover. FICO requirements will go up, seller contribution limits will be reduced and down payment requirements will increase. Expect FHA to move to higher premiums for lower credit quality borrowers. Expect interest rates to start steadily rising as the Fed removes the artificial ceiling it created with Mortgage Backed Securities purchases.
My opinion is that waiting for the "perfect" opportunity in this market is likely to cost someone a "great" opportunity.
No is no such thing as a bad market, it is a different market. In my opinion, currently we are in a buyers market. I believe we are getting close to another shift; I believe the home market buyers and sellers are adapting to price changes. My words of advice are... if buyers wait, they may miss out on the home of their choice. There are many people with cash in banks waiting for the bottom, maybe your market has already been there and is trending upward.
There is one thing that I would love if you found for me on one of these sites, does anyone ever separate out the number of non-owner occupied homes that go into foreclosure vs. owner-occupied? What about the number who go into foreclosure who did 80-20 loans with low credit scores, stated income, who thought they would have 4 different family members living in the house who ended up not living there so they couldn't pay the mortgage?
And between now and the time they buy I will have closed, well, a good number of transactions.
They often (usually? sometimes? a lot of the time?) have a lot of genuinely useful stuff to contribute to the discussion. But that's true whether they're actually ever going to buy, or if they're never going to buy, or if they already bought. Their status as buyers is almost immaterial - their content is valuable regardless.
Do I FEEL it is a good time to buy a home? Well, gee. Can I say "Yes" without being disparaged as a Realtor(r) shill? Can I say, "No" without being castigated as someone kissing up to the doomsayers?
What do I care? I do FEEL that it is a good time - for people who are in a good position - to buy a home.
But, only time will tell. As always.
WHAT REALLY COUNTS is what is happening where you live. The market does in fact vary and that variance can be as local as cities. So your question must be directed at what is happening in Oro Valley, AZ if that is where you are considering buying. Research must be directed specificly where you would consider buying.
As far as buying goes, if you are buying as an investor, I personally do not think it is necessarily a good time unless you find something at below market that you can fix up and flip. These things are starting to happen again.
However, everyone is entitle to a place to live. If they can afford a home, there is no better time than now with rates at such historically low levels. There are tax advantages that can make owning cheaper than renting, and sooner or later prices will go up again.
I'm not sure about California, but in Florida homes are at or very near the bottom. Investors are very active and purchasing lots of property. I personal work with out of the country investors and they typically buy a couple of homes/condo a year. But in late 2009 they wanted me to find additional properties for them to purchase. I take that a sign the the price bottom is here in Florida.
It is a good time to buy when you are ready and motivated to do so.
There may be some micro markets that go up, that has always been true. But overall, it is a bad time to buy. We simply can not fight real trends and foreclosures that re coming.
I would love to see some facts showing I am wrong. Do NOT give any NAR crap. They have zero credibility to anyone who has watched them for over a year.
I think that it is a great time to be buying a house right now. The Tax credit is still available for first time homebuyer's and with foreclosures still pouring into the market, prices are at an all time low. We are being told that value is going to be on the upswing so, for first time, investment or second homebuyers, I think it is a great time to buy. Please contact me if there is anything that I can help with or any more questions. Thank you,
I just wrote a blog and newsletter on this subject. I have included the link to the newsletter section of my website. As an Exclusive Buyer Broker I publish a monthly newsletter that is just geared towards BUYERS. Please feel free to subscribe if you want to keep on top of the latest real estate news, mortgage rates and get timely advice for buyers and investors.
Here is what I blogged about......
Delete 5 Questions to Consider Before Buying a Home
The 5 following questions may help you decide if now is the time to go ahead and purchase a home or refinance your current home.
Q: Why are rates so low?
A: Since early January, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae in an effort to stabilize the housing market by making homes more affordable for consumers. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which is managing the program, plans on purchasing $1.25 trillion of securities.
Q: Are rates expected stay this low?
A: It's hard to tell, but don't count on it because the lending landscape is likely to change next year. In September 2009, the Fed said it would gradually wind down the purchase program, ending it by March 30, 2010. That has some in the mortgage lending industry worried.
In a recently published mortgage survey, more than 60% of Bankrate.com's panel of experts predicted that rates will move higher over the next 30 to 45 days. How much higher is anyone's guess. Last year at this time, the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.53%.
Q: Why do different mortgage surveys come up with different average interest rates?
A: It depends on which lenders are in their sample, when the survey was taken and whether the rates quoted are the posted rate, the application rate or the commitment rate. Also, some surveys take into account the points paid to secure the rate.
But regardless of the survey, the general consensus is that rates are ultra-low right now and may be the lowest the market will see.
Q: What else does a consumer need to know?
A: The lowest rates are offered to the most credit-worthy customers who can make sizable down payments. Shop not just for the interest rate and the points involved but also for the fees involved, which can vary widely from one lender to another.
If you're refinancing, remember the bigger the loan, the greater the payoff for finding a lower interest rate. Savvy customers put in their paperwork with a lender and set a "strike" interest rate at which to lock in the loan, a good move considering rate volatility.
Several refinancing calculators are available online that let borrowers plug in all the required numbers and determine the monthly savings and how long it will take to recoup the expense of a refinancing.
Q: So is now the best time to buy a home?
A: It depends on personal situations. Homebuyers certainly have a lot of factors working in their favor right now-low interest rates, plenty of marked-down homes for sale and an extended and expanded federal tax credit that will expire in the spring.
On the flip side, there's growing sentiment among analysts that housing prices, which are showing ever-so-minor improvement, may fall further. The reason? Lenders are expected to get better at determining which borrowers will qualify for loan modifications. That means lenders also will get faster at moving homes through the foreclosure process.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, recently predicted that housing prices nationally will hit bottom in 2010's third quarter. That means anyone buying a house now could see the value of their investment initially depreciate.
Start looking now to position yourself to buy in mid-2010. To find out more information on the benefits of using an Exclusive Buyer Broker and how it can save you money please visit the About Buyer Agency section at http://www.OptimaProperties.com
HUH????? I have never recommented before but I was typing away thinking I would be the 1st and whoola! Hit answer & I was 5....cool.
But, reading yours Jeremy.....pretty interesting actually, but by the the time you analyze what you just said, I would be out jammin' to sell properties between all those other dates and "solar analysis" stuff.
Have fun with the market! =)
I think it's an awesome time to buy!
Why wouldn't buyer's want to! Most areas, the houses are 1/2 or less of what they used to be. (Of course, they were never worth that much in the first place....) but, they are still tremendously lower than in the past "spike" in the markets.
C'mon, with the $8k tax credit, and now the $6,500K credit, FHA w/3.5% down, VA - 0 - down, low interest rates, county programs to help 1st timer's, USDA loans, etc.
I understand the economy because, uh um, Realtors have been hit financially, but there are ALOT of people out there with "cash in hand".
How funny, I'm meeting with a client from AZ in a few hours to show properties - and a CASH buyer to boot!
I think the people that were smart during the "crazy" market & invested their monies are now reaping the benefits! Good for them! (Love your question!)
When is the best time of the year to buy a home? There are at least two days of the year that give buyers the edge. Would you like to guess which two days are best for buying a home?
Every spring, as tulips struggle to poke through melting snow in the North and rosebuds cautiously open in Southern climes, sure as tootin' real estate signs begin multiplying like bunnies across the country. Soon as the For Sale signs are mounted on the posts, swarms of activity buzz in the streets as sellers, buyers and real estate agents crawl out from wherever they hibernated for the winter to welcome the spring sales season.
There is nothing like a spring real estate market. Offers fly over FAX machines and cell phones ring constantly. Everybody wants a deal, and everybody wants to sell. Typically the marketplace is flooded with inventory. There is more on the market in the spring than any other time of the year.
It's also the worst time to buy a home. Except for one day. There is one day in the spring that a buyer will have the edge against all the other buyers.
The second best day of the year to buy a home is Easter Sunday.
A buyer looking for a fixer on the outskirts of downtown Sacramento lucked out last Easter. A home came on the market at an attractive price. The buyer immediately inspected the home and wrote an offer. Fortunately, the listing agent was also the seller, so it was very easy to present an offer. The offer was signed and accepted on Easter Sunday because there was no competition. Come Monday, offers started rolling in, but it was too late.
â€¢Easter falls sometime between March 22 and April 25.
â€¢It is the first Sunday after the ecclesiastical moon after the vernal equinox.
â€¢The vernal equinox falls on March 20th or 21st, depending on the year.
The first best day of the year to buy a home is Christmas Day.
Almost nobody looks at homes on Christmas Day. But buying on Christmas Day is a smart move. If you scout out the homes on which you'd like to make offers a few days before Christmas, you'll be better positioned. Why is Christmas Day so attractive?
â€¢People are in good moods, celebrating, opening presents, enjoying family.
â€¢People are more inclined to be generous, even if it means coming down on the price. "Hey, it's Christmas, hon; just sign it."
â€¢Few buyers are out looking at homes during Christmas week, so the chance of multiple offers or any competition whatsoever is very low.
â€¢Home prices are at a 12-month low in December.
â€¢If a person has their home on the market over Christmas, that person is definitely serious about negotiating and selling that home. You can bet on it. Better yet, why not write an offer?
Of course, the key is to find a real estate agent who will a) work on Christmas and b) be aggressive enough to worm her way into the seller's home without batting an eyelash.