We are not paranoid; just careful.
We look at the supporting things; like unemployment, business trends, inflation and the areas where people want to live.
What states are people attracted to, and why?
Sometimes the "experts" make a prediction, and it becomes self-fulfilling; because they said so.
The population is getting older; that means moving south.
The workers are not tied to a metro area like they used to be; that means they can live where they WANT to live, not where they HAVE to live.
Would you like to live on a ranch in Wyoming and work in New York City; no problem.
As an "expert" I would prognosticate that Real Estate will appreciate at a 6.5% rate for the next 5-7 years: Who can say I'm wrong? Somewhere in the Country, I will be exactly correct.
1) The general macro-economic trends in the US and more specifically New York City. When the economy trends upwards, real estate is one of the sectors that go up. When there is a recession, real estate prices naturally follow. The fact that the economy in the Northeast, particularly in Downstate New York, held up very well and continues to hold up well would indicate an uptrend for the writer's property on Woodhaven.
2) The interest rate and lending environment. These two criteria affect the pricing of real estate in that low interest rates not only encourages people to borrow, but it also encourages people to invest and not to leave money in bank accounts.
3) The socio-economic development of the area. Anyone who bought property in Williamsburg and East Williamsburg has most likely already made a minimum of 30% on their investment. This is because the social development of Williamsburg into an enclave for artists, hipsters, and young affluent renters have increased the economic activity in this particular area.
4) Finally we come to the microeconomics of the house itself. The writer will get as much, if not more, out of the house as he/she puts in upgrades. Most popular and effective renovations and upgrades include exterior modernization to increase curb appeal, bathroom upgrades, and kitchen renovations. Some studies put the return on investment at over 130%.
Given the above facts and circumstances we can with relative certainty say the following:
1). Macroeconomic trends are pointing upwards. The unemployment rate is holding steady with some signs of decline, Wall Street has recovered a lot of lost ground from 2008, and the Vix Index has been stable.
2). Based upon guidance from both the Central Bank and European Union interest rates are not going up anytime soon.
3). I don't know if Woodhaven will develop into an enclave as Williamsburg did and continues to become. But I do know that the area is stable, with low crime, and the neighborhood continues to improve.
4). I cannot know what types of home improvements, if any, the writer is planning to make.
It is likely that the writer's property shall increase in value. Maybe not as much as they would want, but there will be an increase.
As with all things in life, "Caveat emptor.". But fortune favors the bold.
Thank you and good luck.
Sold 1 family & multi family homes by volume
Aug- July 2010 158
Aug- July 2011 117
Aug- July 2012 108
Sold 1 family & multi family homes br ave price
Aug- July 2010 $367,168
Aug- July 2011 $367,875
Aug- July 2012 $359,208
Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or comments.