Home Buying in Dublin>Question Details

Daniel, Home Buyer in Foster City, CA

Bubble is deflating!...11 price reductions in Dublin, more inventory and prices going down!

Asked by Daniel, Foster City, CA Sat Aug 17, 2013

Help the community by answering this question:


Hello, Daniel,

All of your posts scream “Dublin Prices Are Going Down”! You seem to think that if you keep posting that prices in Dublin are going down that you can actually make it happen. It does not work that way.

Buyers keep buying and propping prices up. Sellers may be forced to reduce their wishful asking prices but that is not an indicator of falling prices…or values. The price at which a house actually sells determines its value no matter what you believe. When those prices continue up you will have to agree that Dublin prices are on the increase.

I doubt they will increase at the torrid pace of the last year, but they will go up over the months to come.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Aug 17, 2013
@Minudo Bongo

Daniel has 3 posts and 2 responses in which he claims that prices are falling. You just have to know how to look for the statistics.

The bubble that burst in recent years was blown up by easy (too easy) credit. When the credit ran out buyers could not buy, sellers could not sell and owners could not refi. Values were driven down because demand for homes at the pumped up prices disappeared. Of course, the fact that our economy went in the toilet did not help.

Now, the rise in prices is driven by a desire to buy. Demand is what it is called. There are not enough houses for sale. Lack of Supply is in the face of the strong Demand has driven up prices.

Record low interest rates have been a contributor to buyer demand.

As rates go up, some demand will fall away. As prices go up, some buyers will fall away, lessening demand. As more house come on the market, supply will increase. Eventually, the market will reach a balance and perhaps adjust somewhat. How long do you think that will take?

Those who predict any significant decline in prices in the near future are wrong. If rates do go up significantly, the cost of financing will overcome any savings to be realized by some price reductions.

It is only wishful thinking that, having waited while prices climbed in front of your eyes that you will wait for prices to come back down before buying. I think you will have a long wait.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Aug 19, 2013
Flag Fri Sep 6, 2013
I don't think prices are going down. What I see is that any new listing comes in the market is inflating their prices without any thought.

Buyers did react on the interest rate hike, however, interest rate is still extremely low. I recently refinance my own home at 2.85% for 5 ARM. It was a super jumbo loan and I was surprised to lock that rate. There are always options for refi.

Earlier there were several buyers in the market but low inventory so every other home was going higher than the asking price. Buyers were frustrated and they were putting unrealistic price on any home. Now the inventory is bit more but there are not many buyers, not only because of the interest rate but also due to other factors like: School started in the end of August had a big impact, more inventory in the market.

Even though the time factor and interest rate factors are contributing to a large, home owners are still expecting high price of their home at this time and trying to inflate their home price to get big dollars. And that eventually deflate the price if the home doesn't get sold at that price after 25 days.

My suggestions to all the home owners and their realtors to keep their home price reasonable or little low to get the higher price. Reducing the price at a later stage brings your home value down and is not good for your home, that community, and for the market.

Home & More Realty Inc
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Oct 17, 2013
Prices go up and prices go down....but history has proven that real estate prices will go up in the long run, regardless of the market. Although I do not disagree with you that the market may be leveling off over the next few months, combining such assumption with potential hike in interest rate may not make it smart for someone to wait. The only upside potential for waiting is if the prices level off and mortgage interest rates stays the same or go lower and the possibility of that is slim to none.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Sep 21, 2013
I agree with you steve that the downside of waiting is probably increased interest rates. On the other hand, increased interest rates will probably level home prices as well. From my experience, there is no " right" and there is no " wrong" time to buy. Opportunities exist in every market to fulfill every buyers risk appetite. However, In the past 1 year, home prices spiked up in almost every neighborhood primarily because of lack of inventory in the market! The present market is a perfect equilibrium, as it should be, where you have a good amount of supply and enough demand to consume it! So, which way the market is heading? The answer is no one knows! Given interest rates are still fairly low makes it still a great time to buy!
Flag Sat Nov 2, 2013

To call the current market a "bubble" is to misunderstand what the word "bubble" means in real estate. What we are seeing is a normal market correction.

The flowing posts may be helpful:

Cash Offers Decrease in 2013 – Good News for Home Buyers

East Bay Housing Market Cooling Off: Top 5 Reasons

Current Bay Area Market NOT A Bubble
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Sep 13, 2013
What I find funny is how the so-called experts repeatedly stated 'nobody has a crystal ball' when prices were falling, but so confidently state that prices are going to increase in future.

It has taken a lot of intervention (by way of the unprecedented FED stimulus, and also "mark to market rule changes" to allow banks to get away with daylight robbery) to get the housing prices to turn north.

Not sure if net-net, it will have the desired effect.

In the end - it remains to be seen if the efforts lead to all round inflation (due to added money supply) - or reversion to the mean by way of prices normalizing. Even Uncle Ben and his acolytes are confused as hell.

I just don't understand why inordinate home price appreciation is seen as the start of a virtuous cycle - and return to the norm seen the end of the world. Boom is the only good, the inevitable bust is bad, normal is bad. Too much of Ayn Rand drivel has become gospel, and is slowly destroying common sense.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Aug 23, 2013
Hi Daniel,

"I've tried several times the link in your web page and it didn't work. "

The link is to an Adobe Acrobat file and the link is live and working (two reports covering detached/attached homes). Try a manual copy/paste into your browser, if it does not work for you email me and I will send it to you directly.

"Anyways, it's very simple to see the statistics week-over-week, just go to the "Local Info" menu in this web page, and then go to "Dublin market trends", you will see clearly there how the prices are going down."

I assume you are speaking of this web page?

If so, here's what I see: "Dublin eye candy".

Are you looking at the Average Listing Price which shows a drop? Did more Condos come on market as opposed to larger detached homes thereby reducing the Average? Are you buying an "Average home"? Here's the primary point of these questions:

If you are a serious Buyer you need to completely concentrate on the stats of your target property/neighborhood - NOT the entire market listings of a City which can create false positives/negatives regarding a trend.

"Realtors are very interested trying to convince people that prices won't go down, because of course people won't buy a home that months later will cost less."

Of course there are some practitioners in a number of industries that consider this a sales tactic; however, your generalization is not what I have experienced over the last 9+ years as a Broker. Most everyone in the Real Estate professions (Escrow/Title, Appraisers, Inspectors, contractors, etc.) are well aware the market fluctuates - I certainly remember mid-August of 2007, the start of the Subprime Meltdown!

Remember; keep one eye on list price and the other on interest rates (http://www.hsh.com/mortgage-quotes/ratetable2.php ). An increase in your attainable interest rate can nullify the savings of waiting for a price reduction depending on your term of ownership. You should know this breakeven point while you wait!

0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Aug 21, 2013
Steve, I've tried several times the link in your web page and it didn't work. Anyways, it's very simple to see the statistics week-over-week, just go to the "Local Info" menu in this web page, and then go to "Dublin market trends", you will see clearly there how the prices are going down. I can understand Realtors are very interested trying to convince people that prices won't go down, because of course people won't buy a home that months later will cost less.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Aug 21, 2013
@ Daniel:

I'll pass on week-over-week exercise; however, here's "month-over-month"

Detached: Sale/List% is >100%, Days on Market is=14 days, Mos Supply of Inventory is 1.3

Attached: Sale/List% is >100%, Days on Market is=18 days, Mos Supply of Inventory is 1.1

Keep in mind:

1) These stats are a LAGGING INDICATOR of market demand since SOLD prices are not known until escrow closes; typically 20-30+ days after the offer is accepted.

2) A Buyer who is searching for a home should not necessarily time a decision based solely on list price. If one believes the market list price is too high they should perform a "What If" scenario regarding the potential risk of an interest rate hike manifesting itself before a list price is reduced. The incremental interest hike could quite possibly lead to a greater overall total expense due to the added interest cost over time depending on the longevity of ownership.

0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Aug 20, 2013
Sure, feed the trolls.
Flag Tue Aug 20, 2013
That statistics is year-over-year Steve, could you please publish the statistics month-over-month and week-over-week?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Aug 20, 2013
Hi Daniel,

The Bay East Assoc. of Realtor's® "Housing Weather Report" for July 2013, which summarizes year-over-year performance, indicates the following for Dublin:

Inventory: +11%
Sales: +14%
Prices: +5%

0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Aug 20, 2013
I think this is true. I have been visiting the new constructions every week since past 4 weeks. In July, the sales reps where extremely difficult to talk to. They would barely glance at you and direct you model homes. Come today, they are quite willing to talk to and started offering discounts in Upgrades and Prices. It could either because of the regular slowness during end of the year or may be the peak is past and market stabilizing. But unfortunately for me, prices are way beyond my affordability :)! I hope they do get back to the 700 - 720K like in January... I am sincerely hoping it will....
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Aug 18, 2013
Well - John Juarez - I only see one post from Daniel about price deflation ("screaming" - as you put it).

I do think prices have gone way, way up - in this inventory challenged environment - with added FED stimulus (of unprecedented proportions) - but things may be at an inflection point.

Demand from foreign investors seems to be waning (use any search engine for terms "Higher prices sap foreign interest in U.S. real estate"), and listings are going up (supposedly, we are into a slowing season but listings are rising).

Only time will tell - but the price run up from 2012 seems to have had all the craziness one saw during the height of the bubble (flipping, over bidding, borrowing from 401Ks etc).
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Aug 18, 2013
Hi Daniel,

I was working today on a post for the AroundDublinBlog. It is early, but there are a couple of indicators that the market in Dublin could have peaked in July.

I'm not being argumentative here...but I wouldn't use price reductions as an indicator. Sellers have been a bit greedy, undoubtedly. But asking prices are not selling prices.

The indicators I was pointing out in that post, not yet published, are: median sales price for Dublin Condos dropped month over month, (August compared to July) and inventory is up 50%. Notice I didn't say a whopping 50%, because when you are working with small numbers the percentages can be high. BUT the inventory did increase from 30 to 45 condos and town homes currently on the market. With sales of 34 units last month that puts us at about 1.3 months off inventory.

The national statistic is that anything below 6 months of inventory is a sellers market. I'm not sure I agree with that statistic. Yet 1.3 months of inventory shows an increase in available units. As a result I see the torrid pace of price appreciation slowing.

Make it a great day!
Vickie Nagy
CA DRE#01363932
BMC Real Estate
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Aug 17, 2013
Glad to see the excitement in your post....

Does this mean you are now ready to buy a home...and if so, which properties did you find that suits your budget and your criteria?

How may I help?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Aug 17, 2013
Search Advice
Ask our community a question
Email me when…

Learn more

Copyright © 2015 Trulia, Inc. All rights reserved.   |  
Have a question? Visit our Help Center to find the answer