Prices will continue to fall.

As more REO or "bank owned" properties are sold, the closed prices will hit the records and appraisers will not be able to give values that support most current listings.

Currently, most neighborhoods have very few comps to base price opinions on. As the foreclosure homes resale, the comps will be there and cannot be ignored. Over the next 6 months, neighborhoods at all price levels will have foreclosure resales on the books. These prices will be lower.

I read an answer saying that if you are going to be in a home for 4 years don't worry so much. Unfortunately, if you ask someone that bought in June of 2005 if they will be "above water" by June of 2009, the answer is a resounding NO.

There are not enough people, earning enough money to support the prices we currently have. If it was one 1,500 home neighborhood of 1/2 million dollar homes then it would not be so bad. But when you have 5 neighborhoods like this, in a 10 square mile are, they cannot be supported.

Between the airport (Sky Harbor) and Verrada, we find a lot of vacant land. Land that has never been built on, and one day, will be built on. As that land gets built on, it will put pricing pressure on areas further away from the airport. How long will Verrada see pricing declines and how long will it take before it starts to grow steadily in value? I would say it doesn't grow at the Phoenix market rate, until all of the land that's vacant between Verrada and the airport, gets built on. Until then, as each new wave of homes gets built, homes that are newer, closer to the city center, and potentially priced lower, until then, homes out at Verrado (and any other distance community, like Vistancia, Johnson's Ranch, Estrella Mountain Ranch, and even Anthem are likely to continue to see pricing pressure...and for years to come.

If you are buying a home, with the purpose of using your home as an investment, and not primarily as a place to enjoy where you live, my advice is to look at a map of the city, and stay within the virtual boundary of where the sprawl has not skipped over large chunks of vacant land. I believe that all else being equal, homes within that virtual boundary will outperform homes outside that virtual boundary on a purely investment focused basis. By how much, at what pace, and when...that's the crystal ball again.

Personally, I would be a buyer in Verrado for the life style, the feel, the vibe, the pleasure of living there. I would not be a buyer in Verrado if my focus was on maximizing financial returns.

Yes I am working with someone of who I trust. Like Don said, NOBODY has a crystall ball, NOT EVEN MY TRUSTED REALTOR, and this is why I like to get a concensus. Thanks For all of your input, it's nice to know what others think, and to have what we were thinking reinforced. Thanks Again! =)

Jane,

If you plan on living in your home for at least 4 years then I really wouldn't worry about price.
I tell my sellers that price is determined by what a buyer is willing to pay and what a seller is willing to accept in TODAY'S MARKET. If you think you are getting a good price on the bank owned home and have a "warm feeling" about the purchase then by all means go forward. If you don't have a good feeling then address your concerns with your agent or REALTOR and get answers to all of your questions. Remember the home buying process is a wonderful pleasant experience. Yes, waiting for a short sale or a bank owned property to close can take awhile, but it is usually worth the wait.

Just some general advice.

As always, Jane, ask the agent with whom you've been working. I'm sure they've already been telling you what the market is doing there and elsewhere. No harm in looking for consensus, but not a great deal of reason to do so if you're working with someone whose expertise you trust.

wait
i'm pretty sure they'll be cheaper in the near future
each area is different
but the trend is your friend
and the trend is down
1/2 sounds good
but what if the house price run up was 400%
just for comparison
compare to before bubble 2000-2001 prices

anyways

good luck

Mr. Keys. Thank You for your input as well. I think you are pretty accurate. I only wish someone DID have a crystal ball! lol That would definitely make this a whole lot easier, wouldn't it. I wonder if any of you have ever even heard of a situation like this before? Where the Bank(Seller?) will do a leaseback on a short sale house while its in it's usual 90 day escrow. Have you ever heard of this happening? Thanks =)

No one knows if prices are going up, down or sideways. No one has a "crystal ball".
If you are looking to buy a home to live in for the next 3 to 5 years now is a great time to buy for 3 reasons:
1) Prices are down - way down compared to 3 years ago!
2) Selection is up - you have a lot to choose from.
3) Interest rates are great.

Here's the challlenge unless you have a substantial down payment 15-20% then you will have a hard time finding a loan unless you use FHA.

If you would like a price history of Verrado homes sold in the last 18 months complete with a bar graph let me know. I can also give you the price history of the new home builders in Verrado. Please use my contact button on my web page if you need those reports: http:///wwwDonaldKeys.com or better yet if you are working with an agent just ask him or her and they can give you the same information.

The number of pending sales have been increasing in Verrado over last month or so, this is a good sign. Most of the builders in Verrado (Centex, Ashton Woods, etc.) have been drasitcally reducing their homes to move their inventory. When this inventory is gone, who's to say where their prices will be at. I would take advantage of this opportune time to pick up a great deal. Look at what the sold comps are and use that in your negotiations.