You can look at the housing futures prices at

http://www2.barchart.com/futexch.asp?exch=iom-hp&code=BSTK

which seem to indicate an expectation that the overall Boston prices will remain relatively flat (with a slight decline) over the next five years. The current Boston area prices are a little bit more than 150 percent of 2000 levels. By 2012, the Boston area prices are expected to be a little less than 150 percent of 2000 levels. Of course, this would represent a significant decline in values in inflation-adjusted terms.

Some words of caution when interpreting housing futures data:

1. Like weather reports, they indicate "expectations" -- the reality could be different in either direction.

2. The amount of open interest is small (and actually zero on some contracts). Lower open interest generally corresponds to lower predictive value in a futures market.

3. Local submarkets (Belmont condos in your price range) do not always mirror larger markets (Boston as a whole). The local submarkets are too small to be part of a national futures exchange.

You can look at the housing futures prices at

http://www2.barchart.com/futexch.asp?exch=iom-hp&code=BSTK

which seem to indicate an expectation that the overall Boston prices will remain relatively flat (with a slight decline) over the next five years. The current Boston area prices are a little bit more than 150 percent of 2000 levels. By 2012, the Boston area prices are expected to be a little less than 150 percent of 2000 levels. Of course, this would represent a significant decline in values in inflation-adjusted terms.

Some words of caution when interpreting housing futures data:

1. Like weather reports, they indicate "expectations" -- the reality could be different in either direction.

2. The amount of open interest is small (and actually zero on some contracts). Lower open interest generally corresponds to lower predictive value in a futures market.

3. Local submarkets (Belmont condos in your price range) do not always mirror larger markets (Boston as a whole). The local submarkets are too small to be part of a national futures exchange.

These prices don't sound outrageous. The greater Boston area is one of the most expensive regions in the country. Will the prices continue to drop is anybody's guess. Allegedly the prices have been falling for the last 3 years so there is the chance this is the worst of it or we could see another year.

The way to make the decision is to look at Belmont specifically and not focus too much on the national real estate market trends. Remember real estate is hyper local (each individual area is affected differently by market crisis'). Positives are that Belmont is a stable high-end market (meaning it isn't currently going through a gentrification of sorts - i.e arlington, south end, etc). The area has great school systems and is very close to Boston.

Also look at the facts ...
Condo market snapshot:
Last year, 64 properties, 114 days on market and median home price of $427,000
This year, 41 properties, 165 days on market and median home price of $479,000
Summary: Less inventory higher prices which means the condo market in belmont is still strong despite general market slow down.

I hope that helps. Good luck!

Belmont is a very nice town that is close to Boston, I feel pretty confident in saying that you've already seen the worst of the declining prices.....