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Hi Steve,
I have to tread lightly as some sites are monitored by DRE and HUD and sometimes questions are posed by DRE and or moles to catch an ethics/fair housing violation. This question if answered the wrong way could have us in front of the ethics committee believe it or not. Of course you have to excuse me as I used to work in a sales office which sent Fair Housing and DRE spotters in so I run a little paranoid.
OK, here is the reality; I am assuming you mean Lemmon Valley so we are talking No, Valleys and Spanish Springs here. The reality is probably nothing significant (more than 5% gain) for about 3 years for both areas if at all (fire/bank owned sales aside and good luck getting a good deal on bank owned until after the tax credit goes away unless you have connections and or paying all cash above asking price).
These 2 areas ironically are one of the hardest hit for Reno foreclosures, Reno bank owned homes, overbuilt and 100% financed by blue collar workers now unemployed and they have lost or are still losing their homes ie: foreclosures increasing not decreasing click or paste this heat map to check it: http://tinyurl.com/Reno-foreclosures .
Even once the foreclosures stabilize (1-3 years), you have a lot of supply and pre graded sites ready to start building again. As an investor, (over 100 homes turned) I stay away from existing and future supply et al. What I am telling investors not only in Reno but all over the United States is after the banks liquidate and somewhat the short sale inventory the Builders are going to come back lean and mean and dump product at or below their costs to ramp up or new players will come in that bought the land for pennies on the dollar and get labor and materials up to 50% less than what it was a few years ago.
My overthought/researched opinion is this: your profit will be capped at a less than replacement cost for many years to come as builders ramp back up and dump homes. There is a huge desert and land in both of these areas to expand/build and builder supply will compete with resales for 3 to 10 years as long as they can keep the water/agency guys greased. Why by used when you can buy new? This is why myself and my Investors I coach are staying in high demand/low supply area not the opposite as these areas you mention somewhat are.
Back to your question; if you think about it, Spanish Springs is closer to the Industrial Park, Fernley, Sparks, recreation, shopping, newer vibe etc. and is where many jobs are and will continue to expand so you may get a slightly better return.
I address an area near North Valleys in a video I am attaching herewith. After you open the link, look at the attachments in the order they appear in the blog as I have the checklist filled out for a real time example of a home and area. I also give you a plain checklist: http://renohomevoices.com/2009/08/19/ron-bell-area-drive-around/
Good luck my Young Jedi!
ronbellrealtor.com
reno bank owned homes, reno foreclosures, reno homes, spanish springs, North Valleys,
Sat Sep 19 2009, 09:52
Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity