You may be interested in the Case-Shiller report with Fiserv and they address this very question for each state. Here is a blog I wrote specifically about my neck of the woods but the map is included so you can check out Florida...and it's not good news.
Yun is forecasting 5.2 million existing-home sales in 2011, up from 4.8 million last year. He also expects modest improvement in pricesâ€”a rise of about 1 percent this year on a national basis. That would be the first in what Yun says will be a series of small but steady gains in the years ahead that will eventually bring home sales back to a period of normalcy.
At the root of these gains is continuing improvement in the overall economy. Yun is estimating modest 2.5 percent growth in the countryâ€™s gross domestic product in each of the next two years, job gains of about 1.5 million in the same time frame, and a slowly improving jobless rate, which he projects will dip from a stubbornly high 9.6 percent in the latter part of 2010 to a better but still-high 8 percent in 2012.
All of the price excesses from the housing bubble have been squeezed out of the market and interest rates remain at historically low levels, making buying attractive now. In San Diego, for example, buyers at the end of 2010 would be paying $1,564 a month in mortgage payments for a median-priced house that at the height of the boom would have cost them $2,833 a month.
"Home prices have overcorrected a bit," Yun says. "The cost of duplicating an existing home, when you factor in the expense of buying bricks and mortar and putting it all together, is going to be more expensive."
Hope this was helpful.
Carlos del Amo
Smart Growth Realty
My guess is that she misspoke and meant to say 3 years.......
There is another large wave of foreclosures out there that will undoubtedly slow the recovery and the number of short sales grows daily. A recovery is going to require more than a spike in home sales, government incentives and low interest rates.
A true recovery will happen when the confidence of the general public is restored and unemployment numbers return a reasonable number.
The government has reimbursed the banks for their loses...and then some. They, then abnks also foreclosed on the property so thay have both now.
Also, part of the deal with the government is they couldnt deal with the existing owner and amke a deal if they wanted the governments's money, so they dont. They deal with new people so thay have to pay new fees and costs etc. More money for the banks.
Now these banks pulled their REOs off the market so there will be less inventory for sale hopefully raising the prices, then they will flood the market with all their inventory and sink it again.
Also, a number of banks are raising their minimum loan amounts to $50,000 so if you did want to buy a run down short sale to remodel and live in, now you are NOT asking to borrow enough money to obtain the loan. And just to make sure nobody slips through the cracks, they raise the minimum credit score to 640 from 620 to eliminate those dastardly people that put feeding their family in front of making the bank richer.
Following so far?
Now interest rates have increased to almost 5% which I agree is low, but coupled with the 6 month plus turn around on a short sale ANSWER FROM THE SELLER'S BANK makes the whole process mute because the buyer has bought someting else by then. See the banks have no real rules to follow, just the make believe ones we are all told to make you THINK there is a concerted effort to bring this crisis to a close.
Here is a solution I am sure would solve all of our issues and allow us to actually pick a time sooner than 10 to 12 years.
There are about 40 million people over 50 in the work force. Pay them $1 million apiece severance for early retirement with the following stipulations:
1) They MUST retire. Forty million job openings - Unemployment fixed.
2) They MUST buy a new AMERICAN Car. Forty million cars ordered - Auto Industry fixed.
3) They MUST either buy a house or pay off their mortgage - Housing Crisis fixed.
It can't get any easier than that!!
P.S. If more money is needed, have all members in Congress pay their taxes and also have Congress retire on Social Security and Medicare. I'll bet both programs would be fixed pronto!
The market has definitely seen signs of stabilization... but this is still a bit shaky and subject to:
1. Employment rates getting better
2. Interest rates remaining low (if they rise substantially, then mortgages become less affordable, prices may fall to compensate).
3. A reduction in foreclosure/distressed activity. This is harder to determine in the short term, but certainly over a period of 1-3 years, foreclosure filings and distressed sales should diminish, leaving a tighter supply of less desperate sellers.
What does a recovery mean to you? Stability? Appreciation? I dont' think you're going to see appreciation rates of greater than 3ish% on Real Estate for another 5... maybe even 10 years once pts. 1-3 are solidly in place. There is still a very large supply of housing no matter who owns it... and builders will start building again, keeping prices in check for awhile to come.
Home Run Real Estate inc
I guess it depends on what you mean by "Recover."
Does recovery mean a return to the peak home prices years ago?
Or does recovery mean a stabilized housing market with a moderate 4% gain year over year?
I think the big answer lies in the overall unemployment numbers. More people back to work equals more people able to buy a home.
My hope is that we will see a spike in hiring in the first quarter in the new year. The news is reporting dismal job numbers for November, but really, what company does a mass of hiring right before Thanksgiving and Christmas?
I think the first quarter of the new year will indicate where we will be in the "recovery" process.
Good question though.
Here is hoping to a brighter future!
Thank you for the Case-Shiller report with Fiserv
very interesting stuff seems to be putting it all into perspective with some brilliant Data for many it seems to calm some expectation but only for the Data minded the numbers people but what about the emotional folks? Can't the market recover much faster?
Some people would agree that it might just do that it is that hope that cause the unnatural rise in the first place I am not saying the recover would happen now but how about 10 or 15 years down the line when memories are not so fresh?
You see a housing cycles you can predict but the speed of recovery and collapse or completely blurred that is why some many people are hurting right now, with many perhaps saying man
"If I only know when to I would have sold everything and made a fortune".
Halstead Homes Realty
License real estate broker
Dominick's suggestion is very thoughtful but I think could be expounded on a bit, Kevin's sarcasm seems to be well received.
Thank you all for your opinions and all best in your business and for all our sakes, I hope the market will recover sooner than later.
Halstead Homes Realty