@ Carl:

http://www.sigtarp.gov/reports.shtml

From the Executive Summary of the latest report:

"Stated another way, even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car."

And the reading gets better....

I guess it's going to getting even harder to say "It's a great time to buy" after you read this article.

@ Steve & Jeff Concerning the Option Arm Recast Chart:

Here is a Pie Chart that shows where the majority of those loans are:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/1…

BTW Steve... I love how the 17% Home Sales down number was used in the headlines comparing Dec. 2009 to Nov. of 2009... but actual sales for Dec. 2009 were a double digit increase over December of 2008. And interestingly... this was created by the National Association of REALTORS itself... very interesting..

Of Course November was slammed -- everybody was trying to beat the Giveaway Deadline... that was extended of course..

Steve:

That mortgage graph link below is awesome.

If there is any truth to it at all, it's a little scary. One thing is for sure, now (and anytime between now and 2013) is a great time to buy!

But Steve....did'nt you know that "It's a great time to be buying" with intertest rates as low as they are and the government offering a tax benifit (subsidizing this next balloon!)

;-P

The market has declined and continued to change since this question was first asked. If you can get a loan and have money to put down and are not buying now, there is something wrong. With all the short sale and foreclosures on the market the deals are out there. Our area is doing well and people are buying. The snowbirds are buying second homes just for the winter months and some are deciding to move here for good. The prices are so low, they can't resist. Will they go lower? Not for me to predict.. However the forecast is that we will teeter along the bottom for awhile before we see any appreciation in our properties. If I had extra cash laying around I'd invest in real estate for the long haul instead of the stock market. Historically it has always paid off and paid people money. Hope everyone is well and Steve I always enjoy your post.

Regards,
Diane Fuchs, CRS, GRI, ABR, e-PRO
Broker Associate
Michael Saunders & Company
941-266-8006
diane@dianefuchs.com http://www.PropertiesInVenice.com

Been Gone from Trulia for awhile good to see that My favorite thread is still alive and going strong.

Dan,

A lot of your reasoning is spot on but if you can purchase now in areas where values were already decimated before the subsidies kicked in... get a positive cash flow and for some reason you do have to relocate in 5 years and prices have gone down... you rent the property out and collect a positive cash flow.

There are a lot of investors that I know that still own the first home they ever bought... ended up turning them into rentals as they moved up or away and now own them free and clear.

The point to my last answer is that if you can purchase at today's rates and run some simple rent vs. buy calculations.... the cash flow scenario should be the main factor in determining whether to buy or not. Not what Might happen aka speculation. Really now... factoring in the inflation game... which anybody who knows what is going on knows that eventually inflation is going to hit...

On the flip side.... look at all of the so called "investors" who were purchasing properties with a negative cash flow speculating on future appreciation rates and how they got burned.

I remember selling a personal property in 2005 in a highly desirable area that I really liked... but the Return on Equity was pathetic and the equity (money) would generate a better return sitting in the bank (not saying much)... We sold it for a really nice profit and sure... If I would have waited a year I could have sold it for more and would have made around $80K more... but the cash flow calculations said to sell at that time.

The value of that house today is obviously worth less then what I sold it for but the "investor" who bought it... has had no problem renting it out in days for a nice rental amount. If values would have never risen due to all of the speculation... I would still own that house and be collecting a positive cash flow from what I purchased it for. (1999).

Once again... cash flow calculation should be dictating whether to purchase or not... not all of the gloom and doom links that Steve is so generously enthusiastic about providing with "predictions" of an apocalypse.

There are obviously some markets that would currently be getting decimated if it was not for the subsidies that were put in place last year.... cash flow calculations should be able to spot those out in making a decision.

Paul, for myself it would depend.

If I expected prices to drop by say 20% I would wait. It would pay me to do so. If I thought prices would drop 2% I would buy and not not sweat it.

My reasoning is simple. If I can spend $8k in rent and save $40k in price it is worthwhile. If I spend $8k in rent to save $12k it makes no real sense to do so.

But there is another aspect to the question that is almost always ignored. Will you live there forever? If so it changes everything. If not, say a 5 year plan I would rent. No hassles when moving that way. No being stuck hoping to be able to sell the old house.

$100k mortgage. 30 years, 5% will pay off about $8,340 in 5 years. Take away your closing costs, take away your 6% selling commission, and you lose money. Then what IF you lose a furnace, you lost a lot more money. At 7 year you have only paid off about $12k.

The other aspect of a mortgage is simple. If I buy for $100k at 5% and rates go up that could make my house worth $80k. When I go to sell I lose 20% because of a slight change in interest rates. It makes more sense to pay low purchase price and high interest compared to high purchase price and low interest rate at the same $ monthly payment.

Hey Steve,

What do you do in areas where a 30 year mortgage at around 5% interest is far cheaper then renting the same thing?

Shouldn't the savings in cash flow be a more important indicator of what to do then speculating?

Housing Inventory Still Dramatically Oversupplied — Before You Add In The Foreclosures

http://newobservations.net/2009/12/27/housing-inventory-stil…

Better to rent.

You have been warned.

No worries... The Treasury is out to save the day with our Credit Card...

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Caps removed:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2009-12-28/fannie-mae-fredd…

"The Treasury on Dec. 24 said it would provide an unlimited amount of assistance to the companies as needed for the next three years."

I wonder if the bank would have taken more of a loss if I waited until 2010 than the 123k they ate when I bought the TH from them?

Then again, if I waited then another investor may have snapped up the deal.

I have to admit, it was very interesting to see how many "Service" entities were involved with this foreclosure from the original tax sale 1 year ago to the final bank that owned the loan.

It's shaping up to be a horrible 2010 in real estate (except for well qualified or cash buyers).

Arrow Trucking suspends operations, lays off

TULSA, Okla. (AP) - The future is unclear for Tulsa-based Arrow Trucking after the trucking company suspended operations and laid off employees.

The move Tuesday left numerous drivers stranded around the country as the company also canceled fuel credit cards.

Arrow CEO Doug Pielsticker issued a brief statement Tuesday night saying the company is negotiating with its principal lender and that the unidentified lender wants to secure its collateral.

One Arrow lender is Daimler Financial Services - which owns the company's Freightliner trucks. Callers to Arrow's Tulsa office received a message telling drivers to take their trucks to the nearest Freightliner shop and that Daimler would arrange for a bus ticket home.

A Daimler spokesman says the company is offering stranded drivers a bus ticket home or $200 in cash.

AMERICAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS GAINING STRENGTH!

Zack, try asking if the one service is better than another in your own question in the Q&A section. Odds are no one will see it here that could give a good reply.

Credit crunch: Home equity lending evaporates
Hock the house? Home equity lending evaporates as real estate values fall, banks get stingy

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Credit-crunch-Home-equity-apf-…

November new home sales sink 11 percent

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-new-home-sales-sink-a…

This recovery is full steam ahead!

Housing inventory levels lowest since April 2006:
http://www.benzinga.com/70547/recovery-existing-home-sales-h…

Manfacturing turning the corner.
https://www.bernstein.com/CmsObjectPC/pdfs/EconomicUpdates/B…

Unemployment drops
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0432007920091204

Manfacturing turning the corner.
https://www.bernstein.com/CmsObjectPC/pdfs/EconomicUpdates/B…

SubPrime Mortgage Mess Explained (with voice)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8hjUei-Nwo

Unemployment funds going ‘absolutely broke’
40 state programs to be emptied by the jobless tsunami within two years

http://:www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34519544/+%22States%E2%80%99+Jobless+F… target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:mHJ7q3CzvfwJ http://:www.msnbc.m…

Berkshire Eliminates 21,000 Jobs as Manufacturing, Retail Slump

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4oP…

The oracle of omaha is swinging at a big recovery.....he will miss.

November new home sales sink 11 percent

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-new-home-sales-sink-a…

This recovery is full steam ahead!

More homes are poised to hit the market
A 'shadow' inventory of properties close to foreclosure or seized but not yet for sale has been growing.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosures18-2009dec…

2009 buyers are 2010's foreclosures.(at a minimum they will be upside down)

US jobseekers face bleak Christmas as unemployment rises

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/20/us-unemployme…

Drastically lower prices for homes await the patient renter.

Do not buy in NJ!

NJ worst states in America For Starting A Business

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-worst-states-for-entrepren…

Seven U.S. Banks Are Seized, Raising Year’s Failure Toll to 140

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA4t…

Nice link Dan,

Knowing the history of what happens when it comes to transparency when it comes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... it is more then likely that it will be even more....

I wonder if Barney Frank is still saying everything is just fine?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgctSIL8Lhs

A new wrinkle in mortgage financing may be fast approaching.

Fannie, Freddie Overseer May Seek More Treasury Aid
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ay8T…

It appears that fannie and freddie are having worse problems than expected. They may BOTH be looking to get another $400 billion each. That is $800 billion for the pair. Although the article does not mention the amount the concept is simple. Fannie and freddie amy not be able to make more risky loans in the very close future.

Foreclosure buyer demand dips as supply mounts.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. home buyers are less willing to buy foreclosed properties than they were six months ago, citing risks like hidden costs, but demand could grow because of the government’s expanded tax credit, a survey showed on Tuesday.

Housing Market

A continued drop in demand for the glut of foreclosed properties would add a fresh layer of pain to a housing market just emerging from a three-year nosedive.

The percentage of Americans at least somewhat likely to consider buying a foreclosed home fell to 43 percent in November, sharply below May’s 55 percent, according to a survey by Harris Interactive.

The survey was conducted November 5-9 on behalf of Trulia.com, a real estate search engine, and RealtyTrac, which tracks foreclosures.

Buyer expectations are becoming more realistic, Trulia Chief Executive Pete Flint said on a conference call.

Next year “government interventions will start to disappear, shadow inventory will hit the market and mortgage rates will start to rise” to around 6 percent from under 5 percent, he said. “We’re in a false state of stability.”

Shadow inventory includes houses that banks now hold but have yet to put up for sale.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1260928800.php

Full Circle of Govt Debt Default

The continuation of the bank dominoes took 14 months, but it occurred. The initial destructive impact craters were carved in the United States and England. To be sure, major damage was done to assets in Spain and Greece and other smaller nations in the last year, but their banks had remained insulated. The discredit and death of the central bank franchise system showed first clear evidence in September 2008 on Wall Street. The unique mysterious aspect of banking systems is how they cannot be rebuilt once they turn insolvent. They rot in place, a process accelerated by rotten ethical values, euphemistically called moral hazard. To be sure, much so-called money flows through the dead rotten parts, but nothing becomes resuscitated except balance sheets. And besides, those balance sheets only look better due to accounting rules changes that deviate from mark to market (reality). The distortions magnify and turn cancerous. See the outsized mortgage bonds with no value at all. See the foreclosed homes withheld from the market for sale in bloated bank inventory. See the big bank balance sheets with large entries of idle money sitting in the US Federal Reserve. The dirtiest American secret in the banking world is not monetization of bonds. It is that US banks are deeply insolvent and would have suffered a worse fate in the last year if not for extortion from TARP funds as well as rescue funds coming from syndicate contraband accounts.

Interesting... kind of reminds me of speculation from the opposite side right before the bubble of people running around saying appreciation is 12% plus..

Then... Like Now... it's the cash on cash returns (investment properties) or cash flow savings (primary home) that matters...

All the rest is.... speculation.

Number seven is dead on regarding realty!

Ten Top Tips for Investors In 2010

By: Peter Cooper, Arabian Money


-- Posted Tuesday, 15 December 2009

1. Stay out of all equities. This is a monstrous valuation bubble driven up by zero interest rates. Rates have to go up, and stock markets down. Markets will correct when something reminds them that this is the future outlook.

2. The dollar rally has further to go, and the dollar will go higher as equities fall, so keep to cash and treasuries until the dollar tops out.

3. No need to diversify into foreign currencies in 2010, except for dollar-linked currencies like the UAE dirham that offer higher interest rates and an explicit government guarantee on all deposits.

4. Buy gold and silver on price weakness when the US dollar rally tops out, and oil stocks.

5. Beware emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, China and India. What has gone up in a hurry will crash in a heap.

6. This will be the ‘Year of the Short’ so, if you want to play the market look to options or short ETFs.

7. Real estate is locked in a downtrend. Interest rates are very low, and real estate only bottoms out when rates are high.

8. Stay liquid for the lifetime buying opportunities that will follow a big crash. Then buy when Warren Buffett says.

9. Do remember to save some of what you earn for future investment opportunities which otherwise tend to occur when you have no savings.

10. Remember that in an era of low interest rates the value of a job is considerable because it would take a much higher capital sum to earn the same in interest. Look after your job.

October's Transportation Services Index tumbles to eight-year low

In October, the Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.9 percent from September’s level to 98.0 — the lowest October index since 2001, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). The TSI also declined 8.7 percent compared with October 2008’s index.

October’s Freight TSI decreased 1.2 percent from September level’s level to 94.5, the lowest October index since 1996 and second-straight month-over-month decline. The Freight TSI also fell 10.5 percent from October 2008’s level — the largest October-to-October drop in the 20 years BTS has calculated the TSI.

October’s Passenger TSI declined 0.1 percent from September’s level to 110.3. On a year-over-year basis, the index decreased 3.1 percent.

The greater depression rocks on!

@ Dan, there is a big difference between 27 acres and an old house for $137k is a big difference from the $100k for 40 acres +/- acres with a modern house you keep talking about waiting for.

You noted Zillow says It sold for $78k not that long ago (how long is not that long ago and were there any improvements to the property since purchased) FYI: Zillow is does not have a very accurate AVM (Automated Valuation Model) I find the values estimated in their tool to be USUALLY "WAY OFF" so take those numbers with a grain of salt. You're better off looking in tax records at recent sales 3-6 months and if not a pre or foreclosure sale add some money back on to that price as those sales tend to be accepted at lower prices than traditional sales where the buyer doesn't have to wait 10 months or more for an answer to their offer.

Throwing out numbers and statements with no factual base on blogs like this while attacking, belittling and defaming professionals like myself trying to get the story straight is reckless. I'd get slammed for throwing out random statements like that so expect you to be held to the same standard if you wish to be taken seriously by fellow bloggers looking for information and advice.

You said 27 acres is a bit small for a lot, what are you planning to start a farm? Most folks I know are lucky to have .25 acres that is a 1/4 of an acre and pay upwards of three times that amount for it. I but those are the options that must be weighed when making a purchase decision and deciding which features are most important in your decision making process.

Small town country living is beautiful and usually does have much cheaper pricing than the more modern homes in larger cities and metro areas however wanting to live on a farm within 5 minutes of the city for a tenth or less of the price is not really living in reality. That is probably the dream for millions of people but you've got to realize that is just a dream. This is part of every real estate professionals duties, going over a clients, wants and needs, their finances and then performing a reality check followed by shopping and eventually a purchase.

Leave out one of those components, work with a client that wants to skip one of those parts and you'll find inexperienced agents working with a client that will never buy, or at least until they hookup with another agent that will sit down and go over these very important details with their clients and take the time to educate them.

Victor, I did see a property in tennessee with 27 acres and a house for $137k. It is an old house and location makes a huge difference. I may just make a lower offer in a month or 2. Although the lot is a bit small, so I might reconsider. FYI. Zillow says It sold for $78k not that long ago.

LARGE 2 STORY FARMHOUSE 27 ACRES 3 BARNS SMOKEHOUSE NATURAL SPRING WORKSHOP & STORAGE BUILDINGS (not that I need 3 barns or a smokehouse)

For years we have heard of big city pricing. I prefer small town affordability. I just need to make sure it is close to an area that has the things I require. It should be. But who knows if the request fits the details I asked for. I have a lot more research to do on this property.

House flipping is alive and well in Las Vegas. Coming across it all over in the past couple of months.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126022588878780861.html

As for representing buyers in purchasing a flip... you just need the right Mortgage Broker.

The HUGE Benefit that I came across for some of my investors that don't have the time to rehab a garbage REO is that the work was already done.

Case in point... Cash investor purchased a bulk deal of homes from a lender... rehabbed the properties and then put in tenants. Properties put back up for sale at fair market value.

Positive cash flow... no banks on the selling side to deal with... no contractors to rehab... etc.. etc..

For long term investors it's a pretty sweet deal...

Certainly better then buying REO's in our particular market.

Oh Dan I forgot to address your comment about wanting to make flipping illegal for 12 months.

Besides being a conservative myself and being for less government intruding into our lives rather than more. That is a silly idea, think about it for a second. Most people don't have the cash to buy a home and pay it off in one shot and therefore will need to qualify for a mortgage. The banks do check the sales history, run comps and get appraisals, so flipping doesn't work the way you make it sound. For a home to be bought and sold in under a year, the flipper would have to be able to show the buyers lender justification to the increased value of the home which they are flipping. Many times this is done by showing proof that renovations or something has been done to justify the sudden increase in price or they will not give a loan to the new buyer.

Remember the lenders main priority is securing their investment and must ensure they are not just throwing money out the window for an asset that is not worth what they are lending someone to pay for it.

@ Steve, as Dan said in a previous post look at the community guidelines. http://www.trulia.com/guidelines/
3 BE CONSIDERATE do not attack other community members. Be respectful at all times.
You are definitely in violation of that guideline. There is no reason or need to personally attack people.

Calling me a liar then trying to equate the real estate market as a sky is falling scenario telling me to search youtube for "police brutality" videos is just a slight stretch there don't ya think? I take that back, if you thought you wouldn't have writen it.

@ Ron that is so very true, I can tell you that the renters looking for options to buy or lease to own type transactions have increased exponentially over the last 3 years. This is why many short sale investors have come out of the wood works grabbing the deals that are to be had and want to be matched up with these types of renter/buyers.

About the market speculators, I don't care much for them if you couldn't already tell but they have been out there, speculating and effecting prices based on those speculations and making money in the process either betting for or against the market, so I'd have to say theat the speculators aren't losing anything really. The people in the markets for which they speculate usually do. Remember this past years oil speculation out of control causing fuel prices to climb to all time highs? The problem is speculators aren't regulated.

@ Dan your confusing speculators aka hedge fund and stock brokers with investors, who are actually buying properties themselves. In the case of real estate market speculators don't buy homes, they buy and sell derivitives which effect or are affected by home sales. As an investor that quotes so many articles he can find online I'd figure you would have known that already. Aparently your possibly just an ill informed buyer with unrealistic expectations. I noted that 40 acre quote again that your looking for under $100K.

FYI people don't BID on short sales as if it were an auction, the process isn't really that timely or swift. Offers need to be accepted by a seller first and then passed on to the banks for approval which can take upward of 10 months on average waiting for an answer.

Dan your not being completely honest or you may think you are and just fooling yourself being blinded by your own misfortunes or lousy experiences, passing them on to others as the status quo. At least that's what I'm getting out of your constant attacks and being one of those folks offering my hand to help as you slap it away, even tho it wasn't being offered to you directly. If you seek short sales, I suggest listening to your agent that specializes in them. Chances are they may know a little bit more about how to get those deals accepted than you. And the answer isn't usually stomping your feet after a low ball offer wasn't accepted.

Victor, I guess the concept or trying to educate others so they do not make a costly mistake is beyond your comprehension. Believe it or not. Some people in this world have been hurt by certain things and only want others not to suffer from circumstances that could be avoided. That is true whether those circumstances are similar or dissimilar to what was gone through. Watch the Dave Ramsey show on fox business channel at 8 pm est. He has said he made all the mistakes. He went through some real bad financial times. Now because of that he has a heart to help others. He can understand what it means to have lost to much and is trying to help others also improve their lot in life.

It is sad you do not believe that anyone could really do that. Just try to share useful information with people so they make better decisions. In the end a lot of people ignore any such help that is offered. But for the few who will listen it is worth the effort to try. In another area I have tried to help people also. No way that could have given me one penny in profit. It all comes down to the same thing for me. Some people lack information and if they receive it they may listen and make a better life decision. In the end, I will never know how many if any have listened or appreciated the effort. If only one does it is worth the attempt.

Some people are so filled with doubt, suspicion, and fear they can not accept an open hand. They always think the other hand is trying to reach into their wallet. People like that always will have my sympathy, but seldom my ear for long. They always try to see an angle and have to make something up if they do not see any profit to one who just tries to help. Then there is the person who is so greedy they only see dollars as having value they can not imagine others not being equally greedy. It must be sad to have no soul like that.

We had a tech stock bubble back about 2001 that broke badly. Sky high prices that went flat quickly.
We are in a housing bubble now. The only difference is it is taking longer to deflate. Houses take longer to liquidate than stocks do. And people are more likely to hold onto a house losing value longer than they would a stock.

Ron, I agree that speculation is a bad thing. Most who engage in speculation lose their shirts. A few make enough that the next sucker comes along hoping it will be them. That was what drove up house prices and now is allowing to to go back to normal pricing. LACK of speculation (and its financing) is helping the real estate market to come back to normal as it did in the tech bubble.

The problem is not the speculator today. It is the person who ignores the coming foreclosures and then buys only to lose serious money in a year or 2 because house prices dropped. The problem is they pay much more every month than they would have if they had just waited awhile longer. I think it better to wait for a year and pay $150 a month less for 30 years than to be in a hurry and pay more for almost the rest of their life. Once prices go back to pre-bubble valuations I will be glad to buy. Not until then. If a great deal came up today I would go after it. But every time I see something decent it is either 1 gone or 2 having the wrong information in the summary. Like 40 acres but is really a one acre lot. (house included) It gets disgusting.

If a speculator buys a foreclosure or short sale and loses money that is great. Usually all they do is drive up prices to the one who could have bought and rehabbed the same building if they had been given a chance to. I would be in complete favor of a banking rule, or legislation that said home occupiers would be the only ones who could bid on a foreclosure or short sale for the first 90 to 180 days. Making flipping illegal to do in under 12 months would also be a good idea. BOTH ideas would do one thing. Give potential home buyers including me a chance to buy properties before the greedy investors who only want to flip it would have a chance. That would truly make houses more affordable. Since some houses would not sell do to bad condition the opportunity for the speculator would still exist. But it would be the third chance, not the first one. Most investors think DOM is a good way to negotiate on a house so it would not block them completely from being in the market. They can have the leftovers.Of course, any normal sale would be open to anyone wanting to buy.

Regarding property taxes. The towns will need to keep their big budgets financed. It may be possible to fight a valuation this year. All it will do is to increase the mil rate next year. In the end what the town charges for your yearly "town service rental" will go up in dollar terms. It happened before. They raised valuations and dropped the mil rate. Taxes went up. Now they will drop the valuations and increase the mil rates. Taxes will go up. the town increased their $15 million budget and the property owners will end up paying for that 3% inflation adjustment the town needs. There is no way around it unless you close down the schools.

The sky will continue to fall for all those people follow bad advice! But for those who recognize the truth and who are looking to make money in this market by being smart, and buying based on the investment itself, NOT SPECULATION, they will do quite fine.

Just always do your home work before you buy, and don't let anyone discourage you from achieving your goals. As far as renting is concerned, you would be better off looking for an owner-financing deal, where you can put maybe 5-10% down and get the seller to finance the balance of the purchase for 3-5 years or more. Or you could do a lease with the option to buy for 3-5 years, SELLERS ARE VERY MOTIVATED THESE DAYS! I am getting between 5-10 seller finance leads a week across Illinois!

"You're attempts to convince people that the sky is falling on this site for your own personal gain in obvious. "

Telling the truth is the path of least resistance Vic. In every way America is collapsing to be sure.

Lookup "police brutality" on youtube. Tell me why Americans are the enemy of the government. 2.3M Americans are incarcerated in the land of the free.

Vic will nurse his illusions while I embrace the truth.

Not true, Steve (the pretend real estate broker) but then again I doubt you ever did a real estate appeal personally before since your a renter.

It's nice how you post bogus statistics with no sources or proof. 98% of all real estate tax appeals in New Jersey are denied? Coming from a person who's profile lies about being a real estate broker forgive me if I don't take you for your word on those stats, especially being from another state all together I doubt your familiar with real estate issues and procedures here.

Oh my coming out of that wealthy investor shell to actually admit you run in circles of people who buy cars with gold. No surprise! My guess your a stock or hedge fund guy betting against the market and trading in gold as well. I'm sure some of your clients and friends are buying cars with gold, something the average joe can't relate to. You're attempts to convince people that the sky is falling on this site for your own personal gain in obvious.

Wow, Steve you didn't strike me as a Fox guy, that really is the best news station. That's the only place we agree.

"Not true, at least in the New Jersey and most other markets I'm aware of. Real Estate taxes can always be appealed."

98% of appeals are denied. Appeals are run by the people benefiting from higher taxation. States cannot print their own money so it is guaranteed that states will raise taxes until the pitchforks and guillotines come back.

I know of several people that buy cars for gold. Seeing more and more of this. Americans are going to be very late to the gold and silver game...Asians are buying hand over fist on the dips! Americans will buy the top out of these markets years from now after abccbsnbc says it is ok to buy gold.

Well people aren't buying cars or homes with gold bullion these days and all the comparisons of and talk of gold in this thread is irrelevant investor speak.

I for one being someone in the real estate business dealing with hundreds of transactions per year have never met anyone or heard of anyone buying a home or a car with gold. Maybe in the rich investment banker crowd but those people don't run in the same circles and most folks to rub shoulders with so that one post with all the gold references is pretty irrelevant.

On of the spin masters said "I have seen it said that it does not matter if Prices continue to decline. It will only matter what prices are when you sell."

Who said that?

Actually what I have seen said and said myself was in response to a lot of the investor talk, (often the same people on trulia pretending to be buyers, sellers or real estate agents using these profiles to spread misinformation and usually those that always seem to talk down to realtors and the real estate market to promote their agendas outcome.)

What I've said is, if you constantly tell people buying now they will lose tons of money because values will go down a little more in a couple months. That statement would mainly effect investors & flippers who will sell in the next couple months or short sell stocks. Otherwise the statement is just flat wrong because those who buy a home for their families to live and grow old in won't likely be selling during this brief down period.

What a reach for straws to spin and weave any string they can grab at. These forums are so unreliable these days with spin masters like this at large. Advice to any serious buyer, renter or landlord, contact a real estate pro directly for data and local market information to help make your decisions vs hucksters here online.

With the lack of moderation in these forums for accuracy or direct deception of people representing themselves as real estate brokers when they clearly are not makes it hard to disseminate the good from the bad, unfortunately making this site a worse and worse resource.

These hucksters also will now spin and tell you investing in stocks is risky, that's true but they do it for a living anyway and several of the regularly extremely negative people that troll this site constantly making these sky is falling posts usually are the stock and commodities short sellers which have plenty to gain the worse the market does. So these people troll sites like these spreading mis information and fear to the public. The thing they wont tell you is how to make a killing in the market by gambling that the real estate market will tank via short selling as previously noted in articles addressing these same folks as they flip flop their good guy persona when confronted.

It is was said "Yet now that values are going down the taxes are not going down. "

Not true, at least in the New Jersey and most other markets I'm aware of. Real Estate taxes can always be appealed. Be sure to check with your local municipality and perhaps an attorney or appraisers that specializes in tax reassessments for your areas rules and regulations for these appeals. Usually an appeal can only be filed between certain dates each year.

I have seen it said that it does not matter if Prices continue to decline. It will only matter what prices are when you sell.

I would disagree. Not everyone buys a house to resell. Some (like me) buy it to live and then die of extreme old age in. Most people I know have been in the same house for decades. The rest have just not lived long enough for it to be decades yet.

For that person there is no ROI involved. If they buy a house at a higher than needed price (it fell $50k after I bought) they either 1 paid to much cash for it and almost (1-4 years) immediately recognize their loss of capital. or 2 Their monthly payment is always going to be higher than it should have been. For 30 years they are paying more every single month than they needed to. Paying to much could even affect the taxes they pay forever.(California)

Investing in stocks is risky. I know someone who has lots almost 3/4 of what I have saved (in banks and credit unions) in the stock market. Hopefully they will recover. Investing in options up or down is far riskier still. All it takes is being wrong by one day to lose everything. I lost in the market (crash of 1987) when I needed money from my mutual fund in 1989. Since then I have never trusted it. I never got that $350 back. I never will.

The only case shiller chart I really know of is the one showing the house price changes from 1890 to 2006 (or so) thanks to Glenn Beck's show. You can find that on utube. It is the only one I have ever referenced. Since I have seen several reports made on that same chart by many news organizations. I did see one report saying they had agreed that prices went up recently during the $8k bribe period. but never saw a chart on it.

You might be surprised at how many people got upset over their houses value going up. They are going to live there and only see taxes take more of their money for no benefit to them as a home owner. There are many cases here of people paying MORE in taxes than they paid for the house in the 60's or 70's. Yet now that values are going down the taxes are not going down. The theory was all wrong. People can afford to pay taxes because the house has increased in value. Yet the taxes do not drop when the values do.

Maine had a interesting statistic. It has one of the highest ownership rates in the country BUT had much fewer people able to buy now if they had to buy at the high prices. I am not sure when this came out. Might have been 2004 might have been early his year. Other states have a lot of move from house to house mentality. Maine is a buy it and stay there kind of state.