Good Morning!!!

IT ALREADY HAS. WE HAVE BEEN VERY BUSY, LEASING, SELLING, SHORT-SALES, B.P.O.'s, FORECLOSURES. THIS IS THE NEW MARKET AND IT IS BUSY! VACATION RENTALS HAVE BEEN STRONG AS WELL.

Just like the stock market, they have long/short, put/calls, options, commodities, currency exchange, etc., etc., I've been licensed since 1978 and this current market is the strangest thing ever! Just recently I made the decision to go with the flow!

THE BEACH HOUSE • SUNNY ISLES BEACH HOUSE • AVENTURA • THE WATERWAYS

Sat Jul 5 2008, 15:53

Being in the trenches it’s difficult to take a long step back to objectively formulate an opinion based on information outside of our day to day experiences. In other words, it isn’t easy to see “The Big Picture”.

Putting aside the potential impact a positive or negative change in the economy will have on the market, I propose a simple answer to the question “when will the Miami market turn around”; When consumer confidence returns, the market will turnaround. I believe this will happen overnight.

Over the past two years, countless buyers have relocated to the Miami area and have opted to rent until they “feel comfortable that prices will not decline further”. In general, with no empirical data, the public’s opinion on any market is simple conjecture. This leads me to believe that what truly moves markets is information. The public makes decisions based on the information provided to them by various media outlets. So, when the public sees an article in the NY Times stating “The Miami Cono Market Hits Rock Bottom”, consumer confidence will return and buyers will “feel comfortable that prices will not decline further”. It will be at that very point when the market will turn around.

This year, I have been working with many savvy buyers that share the opinion that the time to buyer is prior to when the general public comes rushing back into the market. Make no mistake, the demand for housing is very real and with every passing month this demand is growing. I call this “pent-up-demand”. When the news breaks, this pent-up-demand will be unleash on the market. Increased buyer activity will in turn boost seller confidence and lessen their willingness to discount their sale price.

I forecast we will see such an article towards the end of 2009 or sometime early 2010.

Bryan Sereny
http://www.bryansereny.com

Sat Jul 5 2008, 10:33

Hi Brian,

We, in the business, have an ago old answer to that question! When one buyer finds one property and signs one contract, that market has turned around. That being said, a near recession in our economy has fewer people looking. Buyer should want to buy BEFORE the market turns around, like soon.

Best of Luck,

Joe
South Beach and Fisher Island

Fri Jul 4 2008, 06:50

Well Bryan...someone told me once that "opinions are like noses...everybody has one!" Mine? NOW.

If jobless/employment levels and inflation remains tame and no outside forces or major catastrophe further disrupts our status quo, we may even begin to see the economy pick up steem after November.'s elections

But, as other's have said...throw a dart and see where it lands. You may fair just as well since anybody's guess may be the right one (of course, then they'll claim they called it, right?)

Best wishes

Wenceslao Fernandez Jr, BS, CDPE
Keller Williams Realty

Mon Jun 2 2008, 22:33

When the prices drop down to 1999 levels!

When people expect $20K investment to return $200,000 in one year - your guess is as good as mine!

Condo prices may come down but maintenance will not. A 1000 sq ft 2b/2b condo going for $500K will have 10K in taxes and another $12K in maintenance.

Investor would need $5K in rent to make it worthwhile. Going rents are about $2000 at the most. So either the price has to come down or the rents have to go up.

Tue May 6 2008, 14:33

Bryan,

Not all areas within Miami are the same, as you know. South Beach cannot be compared to the Downtown Miami market. If we consider levels of inventory and ratio of sale price versus list price we can see that we are in for a long recovery period. Some areas have inventory levels as high as 3-5 years of supply. Prices will continue to decline until most of the inventory is sold. Properly priced properties are being sold, however, the majority of properties out there are still overpriced. This is causing a backup in inventory of unsold homes, couple this with the fact that everyday more and more inventory comes on to the market. This keeps on slowing the market down.
Single family homes and older condos (buildings built before 2002) will stabilize faster than any new development built after '02. I use the word stabilize because until levels of inventory begin to decrease we won't be anywhere near a turn around. If activity continues as is I believe we will see most of the market, not including new developments, begin to stabilize late fourth quarter.

Mon Jan 7 2008, 14:59

It is changing all the time, for better...sometimes worse. As a broker/agent in Sunny Isles Beach (33160) Miami- I see changes all the time - on a daily basis.

Wed Dec 26 2007, 17:28

No Bryan, it's not you, it's us. Trulia is very addictive. Some questions require a location and it irritates those of us that want advice from an outsiders perspective. So we have all started to ignore the location.
Sorry,
Ruth

Mon Sep 17 2007, 18:01

New to Trulia, I incorrectly assumed that by posting in "Miami Beach > 33139 > Market Conditions " readers would answer my question as it pertained to the Miami market. My apologies. Next time I will be more specific.

Mon Sep 17 2007, 17:52

The National Realtors Association just predicted through 2008.
See CNN Money for the article dated Sept 11, 2007.
I'd post the link but I'm having trouble with my posts right now.

Mon Sep 17 2007, 16:31

Now there's a loaded question! Turn around and do what? In California we have an affordability problem which was somewhat moderated by loan products now showing some major flaws! In our area the last time we had a "market turn around" we dropped 10% of value and went flat for 7years. Then we had a recession, high interest rates and plenty of inventory. Now we have low unemployment (my area of California!--sorry Michigan!), no recession (yet!), low-interest rates, but an affordability numbe of 18%!! The OFHEO has done many studies of markets which went "bust" (falling 10-20% of value) and found unemployment being the MAJOR factor. I think you got to throw in their "Affordability". So we are coming down from Historic Highs. Our chief Economist for CAR is predicting late 2009 for all of the "junk" to shake out--current crop of short-sales, foreclosures, investor's bailing and new "recasting" of 2/28's and 3/27's and subsequent short-sales, foreclosures, blah, blah, blah! Forget thoughts of "When" the market is going to "turn-around" and start lead generating a minimum of 3 hours a day. Do this for 3 months. You'll make YOUR market Turn-around a whole lot faster!!

Mon Sep 17 2007, 16:27

I need my crystal ball to answer this questions. OOOPsss, I just dropped it. Oh, it has a crack. Sorry need to get it fixed.
Note: Anyone who says they can predict this is pulling your leg. This is what makes our business fun. We can make good guesses and close predictions. No one can tell you for sure WHEN or What.

Mon Sep 17 2007, 16:14

It appears to be a "normal RE market" where I am in South FL. Homes are selling. They are not flying off the market like before but every month I do see on our property appraiser's website that there are plenty of sales happening. I have also noticed a sudden increase in the number of "under contracts" on our local realtor's websites.

Mon Sep 17 2007, 11:53

I have an Uncle who used to be a Floor Trader (Stocks, Options, etc.) so everyone would constantly ask him: Vince, is the market going to go up/down/whatever? he would answer : "If I knew that, I would be on a yacht surrounded by Supermodels". Kaye's answer on this is about as good as it gets, it depends on your area.

Mon Sep 17 2007, 11:01

Bryan,
In this business you have to make your own market everyday.

I look at it this way.
The sellers market has turned around, and now it`s a buyers market.

Mon Sep 17 2007, 09:57

Hey Bryan,

In this business you have to make your own market everyday.

If anyone here could actually tell you when the market would turn around. They wouldn`t be selling real estate, they would be betting horses.

Mon Sep 17 2007, 09:42

The market is around. Every buyer or seller market has RE plays. Put your mind in the zone and have fun.

Mon Sep 17 2007, 08:45

Bryan- I think the answer to this is that it depends on your location. If you are in an area that is not experiencing huge problems then the turn around will be relatively soon.. perhaps third quarter of next year.. However if you are in an area with a number of foreclosures where housing is really depressed it could take years before the market turns.. there are still places that have never really recovered from the 90's downturn..

Mon Sep 17 2007, 08:11