Market will be substantially down. Looking at historical norms of income and prices, homes are over-priced. Should see a 25-50% decline, in general according to Case-Schiller. I would not believe anything NAR says, b/c they are biased. (they are interested in seeing a strong market and lots of homes selling)

Ask you self this "does the average joe in the bay area have enough income to afford the average home?"

Wed Mar 12 2008, 17:14

Hi Trulia ,


No one can be sure of the outlook of the market in the Bay Area. But I know one thing that the jobs growth in SF and SJ in the next 2 years will be up to 2.1% (according to N.A.R. report) That will make the demand of housing in those areas and surroundings will be stronger and better. That also means it will drive the prices up since the demand will be up due to new job openings. I hope this would be helpful. You might want to check out the housing market in SF and see it for yourself. Nothing is better than doing the research by yourself and use your own judgment to see the fact. Good luck.

Wed Mar 12 2008, 12:01

The real estate forcast-- The best way to answer this question is to look at the history of real esate sales. The Bay Area shows a 5-year pattern with property value. RIght now, with the subprime mess occurring, it will take some time to understand where we are headed.

Investors will say, it only makes sense to buy real estate in a bad market, the values are there. If this is to be your primary residence, then there is really no bad time to buy --property value will always go up, it's just a matter of time; and if this 5-year principal holds true, then buy and hold on to your property for a longer period of time.

Best to consult with an experienced agent, and have this agent show you the neighborhods that you are considering: look at the statistics, comparables, and really monitor the sales. It makes sense to understand the lending process, what's required, your mortgage payment, and that interest rates are incredibly low. There are incentives to be a home-owner vs renter. Check with your CPA about this, and talk to several lenders about first-time buyers programs. Title company offer discounts to seniors and first-time buyers with closing costs. Keep saving for your down payment! Timing is everything.

Please feel free to conact me anytime if you'd like more information on this subject, like to see real estate statisitics, pattern, check out homes in the area...Good luck! --Lisa

Mon Mar 3 2008, 13:55

Got it. I'm aware that that is the situation in some places around the country, didn't know it was happening in Alameda. Wow. We have microclimates and micro real estate markets.

Sat Jun 23 2007, 00:34

One more thing--I overheard a very experienced local agent discussing the market with a colleague and he said (this is a quote) "Things are going south here fast." ...

Sat Jun 23 2007, 00:16

Hi Vicki,

Thanks for the answer. Alameda is the market I watch very closely.

In the past year, I don't believe I have seen a single property sell for over asking, and multiple price drops are common. One gorgeous property listed at $629K in early 2006 sold for $542K after languishing on the market for 4 months with no offers.

Another extraordinary Victorian started over $800K, fell out of escrow, was relisted at $799K, fell out of escrow again, and sold for $715K 4 months after being relisted.

Condos take months to sell after multiple price drops, when just 2 years ago they were being snapped up for significantly more than the list price, with bidding wars all over the island.

I'm watching this market obsessively and have most of the listings memorized... I'm just not seeing any of the crazy prices and bidding wars we used to see just 2 years ago.

Sat Jun 23 2007, 00:15

I think you have to get very specific about the area you're referring to. "Bay Area" is too broad. I work on the Peninsula - not in SF.

On the Coast, in general, it is taking longer than it has in the recent past for homes to sell. However, that's not true on the Peninsula of San Mateo County. There are multiple offers; homes are selling over the asking price.

Like I said, I don't work the SF market; however, I'm hearing from my peers that that market is extremely competative. Multiple offers are far over the asking price, as in 50k to 150k+.

I'm seeing short sales; but many of those are receiving multiple offers. Prices are not rising as fast as they were, but still are climbing. Homes are taking longer to sell, but not to the point of stagnating.

To answer your question specifically, I expect that those trends will continue.

Land is at a premium; the weather is superior; new construction is very limited; major companies continue to hire. The population still grows faster than the housing available.

Basically, I'm not seeing what you describe.

Would you post the city where you're seeing these things? I'd be really interested in running statistics.

Fri Jun 22 2007, 21:43