That aside, my take is that Wilson has a different understanding, perspective and belief in the market. The human nature is that we are more attracted to and are more willing to accept what we want to believe in. The only way to convince people after reasoning with them is for them to go and try the theory and find out first hand.
I also want to give Realtor more credit as they so deserve. I believe Realtors are very intelligent and I donâ€™t think any Realtor will actually believe they can bring in a 20 cents to a dollar offer and get them accepted. If they really believe that, they might not want to be in this business. So, I am not too worried about whether the Realtors who read this thread will jump in and help Wilson just because what I said..
I believe that any Realtor with the knowledge about the market will only be investing time to show Wilson the possibilities and help him understand the reality of the market. I think they first have to decide if and how much they want to invest the time after they found out it might be an impossible task, at least not today..
I also want to believe in the fact that Wilson will be very upfront with the Realtors he is going to work with (just look at the thread). It does not do Wilson any good if he does not tell the Realtors what he wants to do because otherwise he will not be able to get the kind of help he needs and accomplish his goal no matter how remotely (im)possible that might be
Hope this explains my answer and position on this.
Â©If you have bought your house since the War...You have made your deal at the top of the market...The days when you couldn't lose on a house purchase are no longer with us." (House Beautiful, November 1948)
Â© "Be suspicious of the 'common wisdom' that tells you 'Buy now'...Because continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher." (NEA Journal, December 1970)
Â© "In California...For example, it is not unusual to find families of average means buying $100,000 houses...I'm confident prices have passed their peak." (John Wesley English & Gray Emerson Cardiff, The Coming Real Estate '' Crash. 1980)
Â© 'if you're looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore." (Miami Herald, October 25, 1985)
Â© "We're starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money-making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot." (Los Angeles Times, January 31, 1993)
Â© "Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment." (Kiplinger s Personal Financial Magazine, November 1993)
Â©"The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline." (Time, December 1, 1947)
Â© "Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today's average price is around $8,000â€”out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers." (Science Digest, April 1948)
Â© "The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs $28,000." (Business Week, September 4, 1969)
Â© "The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close." (Money, January 1981)
Â© "Most economists agree... [a home] will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980â€™s.â€ (Money, April 1986)
Â© The baby boomers are all housed now. They are being followed by the baby bust. By 2005, real housing prices will sit 40 percent below where they are today." (Harvard economist Gregory Mankiw, "The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Coming Collapse of Housing Prices." Journal of Regional Economics, Fall 1989)
But you have selective learning and read only to your point of view. This market has been appreciating since 1997. The Dot.Bomb implosion hit the bay area worse than anywhere. Remember the heady days of the Nasdq going to 5,0000? We lost close to 300,000 high tech jobs in the bay area after the bomb exploded and THEN the real estate market REALLY took off!
Retracing the last crazed market back in the late 80's our high water mark was it in '89 . We lost 10% of our values and went flat for 7 years. The OFHEO predicts the lenght of run-up of a market will predict the crater it forms after the bomb goes off. I waiting for the smoke, dust and debri to clear to see how big.
I never ever stated the appreciation we all experienced here in California could be maintained. I've been warning clients via my radio show for the past three years to throttle back using the analogy of selling at just before the peak of the Dot.Bomb. Many sold their homes here and bought retirement homes for the future and are now renting. Many though bought investment properties with $600-1,000 month negative cash flows. Most where highly leveraged as were many homeowner purchases.
I don't agree with Sylvia as I would not give your investment scenario the time of day. I appreciate you warning us off. My animosity stems from seeing investors such as yourself NOT being upfront with some of the more inexperienced, desperate agents out there and wasting their time while building up their hopes for a much needed closing. Why any self-respecting agent would waste their time working with you and your investment strategy is beyond me. But hey, we have thousands of very desperate Realtor/Licensees out there who will keep their fingers crossed when writing your absurd offers.
But you stil have not answered my question about your foresight and past investment strategy? I'm sure you called this many years ago. Then of course, I'm sure you called the historic run-up we had and took full advantage of that "Irrational" run-up? How about a bumper sticker for your investment scenario: "Honk if you want 20% of your homes value in cash!"
I understand where you come from and I agree with you that real estate is local and the markets are local and Marin is unique and other areas might not be so lucky.
However, you are talking about 2010. I am very simple minded (I do have a MAS degree in statistics but numbers can be used in different ways to support theories and positions), and my answer is fundamental â€“ supply and demand will dictate the market.
I have seen the inventory stayed stable for a few years due to the revolving door of the sellers market. The supply started to grow mid 2006. As owners heard about the softening market (a self-fulfilling prophet), they decided to sell their homes before the market dropped further; coupled that with short sales, the market has more than itâ€™s fair share of homes to sell.
However, for the sellers who do not HAVE to sell, they will not lower their price, nor are they anxious to sell. Quite a few have started to take their homes (whether primary home or investment property) off the market to either wait for better times or until they really have to sell. New housing starts probably all but halted. For my clients with existing homes (and a few others I personally know), they are renting out their current home while purchasing their new homes.
So, prices go up, homes go on market, supply grows, price drops, homes go off market, supply lowers, prices start to go up again. We had a big set back this year due to the sub prime problem and the shock for the reality of it all; but the subject is not such a big surprise anymore and lenders and others are trying to figure out how to remedy the situation, whether successful or not, itâ€™s a positive sign and has a calming effect, however tiny it might be.
I also see people started to invest in the very depressed area, just like what you are thinking but much more realistic; that also prevent the market from dropping further.
I am not even talking about Marin or Brentwood or Bel Air, I am talking about regular homes.
Maybe I am oversimplifying this but 20% of current market price in 2010, especially in west L.A. just does not work for me.
Will people continue to pay a premium for Marin? Yes, they will â€“ Marin is famous for conserving itâ€™s nature resource and beauty, land is scarce, jobs are plentiful in the bay area, commute is good, cultural events are close, schools are good, and people donâ€™t want to move away unless they really have to â€“ thatâ€™s what is holding the value here.
Buyers paid more than asking price because demand was high and supply was low. There are always buyers in the marketplace! People who are buying because they need to buy not just because they want to buy.
Real estate history tends to repeat itself. What comes up must come down and then it comes up again. Articles likes those that you have linked are partly to blame for the market. It scares the ______ out of buyers and then they stop buying thus creating the market that these authors have predicted. Yes, these articles can have influence over the market as they create panic in buyers and in sellers.
I am curious, what is your prediction for 2021 prices, 2031 prices, 2041 prices? You must think the prices will then come up if you are willing to buy at 2010 prices and not 2011, 2012, 2013, etc.
I agree that there is great concern to be had for the future of our country but can anyone really predict the future? This is a huge presidential election and this will have a huge effect on the real estate market. Can you predict the winner?
There were people who predicted that Realtors would no longer be needed because of the internet. Realtors are stronger than ever. There are more Realtors than ever. There were people that predicted that full service Realtors would go away and the flat fee companies would prevail because "it is all about getting it into the MLS" but these flat fee companies barely have market share.
The agent that decides to work with you... I will leave it at that.
Happy Low Balling! Please keep us informed.
In October the median price was $159,000 and falling. Median price per square foot had fallen to $164.
The percentage plunges were 42% off median house price and 35% off median price per square foot.
It is entirely appropriate to offer half price off of the 2005 or 2006 peak price.
Where the weirdness develops is that folks get the idea that half off means three quarters off.
Remember in Kindergarten when you learned to fold a paper square.
If you fold the paper in half it is 50% of its original surface area. If you fold it again in half it is only 25% of its original surface area. Then you continue to fold it in half repeatedly. No matter how thin the paper is to begin with, it eventually becomes so thick with folding that not even Superman could fold it at some point in the folding.
Why stop at squaring the fraction? Cube the halving fraction and you are offering 12% of the peak value. If half off can be repeated infinitely, you could eventually buy for a fraction of a cent.
You can buy armloads of houses in this valley for half off, the discount is not infinite.
Really, don't take it too personally. Actually, I did exactly the same thing, I saw Wilson being in N.Y, and then you mentioned Asbury, and thought I think from your previous answers, Asbury is in N.J. and O.K. NJ and N.Y. are close enough, must be why you suggested that. Then I noticed Wilson asked about L.A., so I thought I'd be nice and mention that to you so you know he's looking for things in L.A. instead of N.J.
No, I don't mind you answering out of state questions, as I do that myself sometimes â€“ but I refrain from answering location specific questions. So, take it as what it is, trying to help you instead of trying to 'police' you.
Taking things too personally on Trulia (or anywhere) is not worth it, but I am afraid to give you any more advise in case you think I am Trulia (fill in the blank), so you can decide how you want to read the meaning of anything that anybody writes and what applies to you.
This is the end for me on this subject.
Two words.. Good Luck.. No question we are seeing prices soften in Los Angeles County but don't count on an 80% drop in value.. There are areas where you will see a 35% drop but as already noted those are in the Inland Empire, Central Valley and the Sacramento area. I don't think you will see even 15% declines in most of the more affluent areas.. namely the Westside, Beverly Hills or any of the Beach Cities.. We have way too many of the big money crowd willing to spend a lot of cash.. and I mean cash.. for prime properties. If you don't expect to see prices fall that much in downtown NYC then don't expect to see it in LA.
Forget what you think you are reading in the local papers or the bubble blogs.. the bottom line is that homes are selling.. at a slower pace.. but still selling in your affluent areas...and prime property is selling at some very high numbers.. often with multiple offers and over list price. You will find out that there are not many foreclosures or short sales in the pricier zip codes. It's a slow market not a dead one and most of these areas have inventory that is well below that of last year. I'm afraid that the market you are seeking is not in the "hot " areas of LA.
While I congratulate you on being very optimistic on your outlook for Marin, I'm curious about your thoughts on outerlying areas. Surely, there is a balance between what one would be willing to pay to live in a particular neighborhood that is more desirable and a better commute to their workplace, versus living in a less desirable community that may be a longer commute.
So while you see an uptick in your particular areas of Marin, there is absolutely no progress in resolving the foreclosure/price depreciation in other parts of the Bay Area and even further areas outside such as Stockton. At some point, a home buyer will tip the balance and decide that it is preferable to live in a less desirable neighborhood at a percentage of the cost of living in the better area. Somebody might be willing to pay 25 percent more to live in Marin versus a distant East Bay community. But I think that very, very few people would be willing to pay 10 times as much to live in Marin as an outerlying area. Therefore, my theory is that until the entire region is cured, the downward pull on prices will be drastic in every community.
The same goes with Karoline and her mention of Riverside. Sure, the West Side is much more desirable than the Inland Empire. But that downward pull on prices in Riverside will eventually drag prices down on LA's West Side, as people balance the multiple that they would be willing to pay to live in either of those areas.
To summarize, what I'm asking is: how can you be optimistic if the entire area is not faring better?
Are you willing to take a fixer? a short sale? a place that's up and coming? a foreclosed, meaning bank owned? an 'AS IS" sale? a property nobody else wants, at least now?
If so, then yes, your offer might work, but then again, depends on your outlook in 2010.
Hi Francesca - Wilson's question said he's looking for home in LA; Asbury Park is in NJ, right?
It could very well be that everything Wilson's links have stated become reality but it is not reality today and banks can be more unrealistic than a traditional seller. I have seen it time and time again. If banks were realistic than more short sales would be approved than are approved.
I like to look at the positive message in Wilsons statement. He wants to buy at 2010 prices which tells me that 2011 (based on his beliefs) will bring price increases. Could it be that the boom starts all over again?
Michael...thanks for the quotes earlier. Those are proof that real estate goes up and comes down and then back up again.
RIGHT BACK AT YA . . . . "Really, don't take it too personally . . . "
RIGHT BACK AT YA: . . . . "so you can decide how you want to read the meaning of anything that anybody writes . . . . "
"Sorry, Wilson, to borrow your thread." . . . As a "founding member" I would think u wouldn't use a public forum to become defensive and slam another poster. FYI - doesn't bother me a bit, quite the contrary, I'm getting a kick out of it!
Finally, 195 words to respond to: R u the trulia police? Not worth it.
Do you see something wrong with directing consumers to other areas where he/she can cash in on foreclsoures . . . I don't .. . . isn't this meant to be a site to educate consumers?
You the trulia police?
This is starting to feel like a setup. Why didn't you just lead out with the fact that you want to offer 20% of current prices?
This doesn't seem consistent with your earlier post on looking for an apartment in NYC Upper East side.
Looking at fundamentals of housing shows that we are in for an unprecedented crash in real estate prices in the major metropolitan areas. Here are the fundamentals I've studied:
2) Cost of Rent vs. Home Prices
3) Normal Annual Appreciation
4) Lack of Available Credit
5) Lack of Savings and Down Payments
6) Home Prices vs. Income Growth/Home Prices vs. the Cost of Living
7) Home Prices in distant suburbs vs. Home Prices in prime metropolitan areas
I'll quote author John Rubino for a quick summary of what will happen in 2010.
Whatâ€™s your take on the tens of thousands of Real Homes of Genius in high priced metro areas?
Down 80% by 2010
It's not necessarily a prediction, but an educated guess based on research of housing fundamentals. If you can rebut with other facts that dictate a different outcome, please feel free to do so.
Oh, here is a thread.
And yes, Wilson should listen to what Larry Brackett (who came to our office meeting Thurday) had to say about Marin Real Estate for the last year - our company did very, very, ,very well, indeed! .
I realize you asked your question long ago, just in case you're still seeing the answers from Trulia or still looking for uber low price deals, I wanted to pass this one along to you.
It's in West LA County, Wilmington technically. It's an 8plex, owner of record is defaulting, there's a 1st & 2nd, held by private individuals. Owner of the 2nd knows he's toast, owner of the 1st wants what cash he can get out of it & is motivated. In my opinion the property is worth about $475K, a property nearby is asking $575K. 7 units are rented out. Let me know if you'd be interested in learning more & make an offer to the 1st lien holder.
Good luck to you Wilson. I think you will have better luck buying performing/non-performing notes and trying to achieve 15-20% return on those....
Very entertaining Michael.
Here's an article from today:
[ForeclosureRadar.com founder Sean] Oâ€™Toole said that in January, many lender-repossessed properties failed to receive reasonable bids at auction, despite â€™significant discounts.â€™"
He said the asking prices on 4,624 homes, or 23 percent of the 19,821 properties up for auction in the state, were reduced 30 percent to entice buyers.
â€˜The majority of these discounts are from the amount owed on an 80 percent first mortgage made in the last two to three years, meaning that many of these properties are being offered at 50 to 70 percent of their prior value,â€™ Oâ€™Toole said.
We are looking at 30 to 50 percent off of prices in California for foreclosures already...wonder what happens when banks really try to sell...
Unless we misunderstood Wilson's answer:
I'll quote author John Rubino for a quick summary of what will happen in 2010.
Whatâ€™s your take on the tens of thousands of Real Homes of Genius in high priced metro areas?
Down 80% by 2010
I think he wants to offer "the prices that the market will bear in 2010" (see his question above), which is 80% off current market price..
After all that answers below, the reality is if you will be offering $200,000 for a $1M house between 12/22 and 12/30, 2007; why would the seller not dropped the price 20% to $800K and offer that to the public? Even if they take a lowball offer (say another 20% off the new price), they'd still be getting $640K, instead of $200K.
It's great to be a savvy buyer, but I just don't think it's going to work in an upscale area (or depressed area). Sellers are savvy also.
Although the good thing about working with Wilson is that he did his research and he is upfront about his belief and what he wants to do. A Realtor can choose whether they want to work with him or not. Who knows, he might change his opinion after unsuccessful trys and he will remember the hardworking Realtor who helped him and come back and use their help when the time comes (at least I hope you wil, Wilson).
"Never say Never" is my motto.
Based on everything I've examined, most importantly, affordability and rent-to-purchase price ratios, home prices are four-to-five times overvalued in prime Los Angeles neighborhoods, as they are in most of California. Take a look at the rent-to-home price ratio in this article:
You may want to take an in-depth look at the entire mortgage scenario--not just the over-hyped sub-prime problems. The problems are far more extensive and have barely begun. You should take a look at the following article:
Based on some of the comments in the thread, I should disclaim that Marketwatch is not a bubble blog, nor is Herb Greenberg a doomsday blogger indescriminately wishing harm to the housing market.
Regardless, why the animosity? Instead, for your own benefit, and for that of your clients, please come up with a legitimate reason why irrational appreciation of 2004-2006 is sustainable. Would love to hear that...
Before we look, I want to make sure I understand you exact needs so I can show specific properties (this way we can make the most use of our time.
In todays market, I have been able to get people really good deals. My investors are buying up properties like crazy.
MY STORY: I' never had any interest in working with lowballers where I have to show 30+ properties, continually write contracts and show and write and show and write. However, recently a client came my way who did not tell me upfront he was going to be a lawballer. After our first offer was laughed at, he and I had a knock down drag out about the state of the market within which he was attempting to low ball. Thank goodness for his wife who persuaded him to keep working with me. CONCLUSION: 2 of the laughed at offers came back at us with an acceptance weeks after, 1 of which we eventually closed on. In this market I am no longer apprehensive of working with lowballers as long as they are upfront with their intent. However, if it had't been for this experience in a "normalized" market (neither seller's or buyers) I'd still be turning them down - the result being less cash in my pocket.
ASBURY PARK is one of my fortes; if u have any interest, let me know. You can email me by clicking on my website below.