Vegasbound, Home Buyer in Lake Las Vegas, Hend...

I am terrified of buying at lake Las Vegas! I am in love with a property that last sold for 750,000 and is

Asked by Vegasbound, Lake Las Vegas, Henderson, NV Sat Jul 25, 2009

now 250,000 . . .is it going to be worth 0 in a few years if I buy it? Will this community dissapear? thank you

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To put it simply. Las Vegas is the most depressed housing market in the country. Follow that by the fact that Las Vegas is also the fastest growing metropolitan city of the last 100 years and you have a very strong indication that the local market here is set to provide investors with a strong return over the long run.

The Brookings Institute recently came out with a study likening Las Vegas to living in Chicago in the 1870's, and Los Angeles in the 1920's. To put it bluntly, you will not see very many opportunities like this in your lifetime to invest for the long term.

Also, there are so many other reasons to purchase a home, from tax advantages, to freedom of lifestyle, etc.

Lake Las Vegas is a strong long term investment. Nobody has a crystal ball, including Case Schiller or REO Fund Manager. I would be weary of anyone telling you "they know" what will happen in the market, especially over a narrow time frame like 2 to 3 years. What I can tell you is that as an investment manager, you make money when others are running away. A perfect example of this is the equity market in 2009 that rose roughly 50% while everyone was declaring capitalism dead.

My advice is if you truly love the home, and you would like to own a property, and you can comfortably fit this investment into your overall financial objectives, you could do a lot worse than Lake Las Vegas right now.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Dec 25, 2009
Any agent or broker telling you we are near the bottom clearly has no real understanding of capital markets, mortgage markets, and therefore their own real estate market. The coming wave of foreclosures is many times larger than everything we have seen to date. Everyone has been ignoring the fact that Option ARM resets don't even start to ramp up until next month and don't even max out until January of NEXT year when the rate of monthly recasts will be $6 billion/mo. Case Shiller index and all reputable analysts are all predicting a minimum of an additional home price decline of 20% in NV in 2010. The good news is that if you are well educated on all of this, you are better able to pick your entry point back into this market. The other good news is that banks selling their REO's into this market will have baked some of this into their sale prices. The wave of investors scooping these properties up today are going to take those additional losses over the next 18-24 months until we reach the true bottom. The real downside is that now that the ratings agencies have learned that you can't stamp a AAA rating on everything using a 6-8% home price appreciation model into perpetuity at the same time that inflation adjusted wages are only climbing at 2-3%. So the effect is that it will take close to a decade for the prices to climb back to where they are today. I'll be buying in LLV as well, as long as it is still there 12 months from now.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Dec 8, 2009
Don't be terrified! All good deals come when everyone is scared. If everything was perfect, you couldn't buy anything for 20 cents on the old dollar. My clients are buying a lot of property there - so are celebs and countless investors. In fact, my last 10 client buys in LLV have yielded 7 closings above asking price and 3 at full asking price. But let's look at the asking prices - these are REO properties where the banks are shedding their assets at 15 to 35% of old values (2005 to early 2008). They have to move them and either you are a buyer at these depressed prices or you wait and pay double or triple in a few years. They may not get back to 2005 - 2008 values, but they don't have to - I'll take a double or triple in 5 to 7 years for my clients. By the way, my last 10 deals would have been 35 deals if it were not for the multiple offers on each and every REO property that hits MLS out there. We tried to buy 2 this week, but were told they were gone the first day. Not all are like that, so get a kick-but agent that sees all listing immediately when the come out. Do your homework and know the subdivision(s) you like and what you are willing to pay - let your agent feed you the deals as they come out and decide as quickly as you can about your interest level. There may be a new wave of foreclosures coming, but I bank on my own experience in LLV - prices are already increasing! We are paying as much as 45% more for the same type units we purchased 6 months ago, but they are still worth it!!! In fact, a couple of my clients that purchased a few months back are now reselling their units for double by offering owner financing!! Don't let anyone tell you that these deals will be there forever!! They won't! Good luck to you - truely! Mark
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Nov 19, 2009
Seems like a lot of Agents have been answering your questions.

I don't like the "still vibrant and active"

let's face it...LLV is in trouble. The city of Henderson is trying to work with the development as water contracts are about to expire...Thus, reason enough for the golf courses to shut down as they were getting free use of water from the City and still not making a profit. They are looking to take BK and/or SELL...but, if no buyers are found this year the City of Henderson will take over and they will become public courses.

While they are waiting... they are not making any new improvements or keeping the place up as once before - just enough to not look like it is runnning down. I do see that the sparkle is gone and things are starting to become less than vibrant. Plus the services in the area are also lack luster at best. But, I see that changing around once the economy starts to come back or the City takes over.

Now for the good news...The SC index perdicts only about 10-16% more of a drop in prices for the area.
If the home is is perfect condition --- go for it. If not, wait till around the 200k range. Forget those before the market crashed prices it last sold for. Also, the HOA it has now is about to tank and the City of Henderson will more than likely take over and remove the HOA fees except for south shore where the HOA will continue.

The neighborhoods themselves are still well keep and the homes will come into line based on the size of the homes. I wouldn't think the City of Henderson would let the development or community dissapear. They will put in the work to make this a fantanstic palce to live. LLV put a lot of money in the coffers for the City.

I do see this area 10-20% higher valued than the rest of the valley in the future....enough to make up for any drop you may see in the next 3-5 years.

Get a good agent and don't pay over $100 dollars a square foot out there!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Oct 8, 2009
Make sure to research what HOA fees you'll have to pay every month...I've heard they are extremely high there!!
I live in the Henderson area.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Oct 8, 2009
There is a growing consensus that we are just about to bottom out. Keep in mind everything runs in cycles. I believe that your getting a great deal. Your purchase will help contribute needed support to one of the best areas in Vegas. In return, once things turn around, (slowly but surely) you be glad you made the right choice. Besides your best advise should come from the person representing you in the deal. In case you dont have someone look me up:)
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 31, 2009
Hello - I actually concur with my colleague except both Reflection Bay and The Falls golf courses have now closed. This is an amazing area that despite the recent economic woes, is still vibrant and active. They just had an amazing fireworks event on the 4th of July, shops and restaurants are still open, every Thursday night during the summer there is a free outdoor movie in the square.

The prices have dropped significantly, but having a unique location with some properties also offering strip views, I believe this area will recover. In fact, there are whispers that a private organization is already making overatures to purchase one of the golf courses. You can read about the area here

I think this community deserves your consideration. Let me know if I can assist you in buying in this outstanding location.

Heather Peck
Rosen & Company West
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jul 26, 2009

I understand your concern. Lake Las Vegas has been hit extremely hard by the slowdown in the market. There were stories that there could be a problem with the pipes that run under the lake and that could lead to the lake loosing all it's water. That issue has thankfully been resolved and the repairs needed are being done. The two most recent issues are that two of the three golf courses have been closed down. The courses are still being watered and maintained, but the current owner is looking to sell the courses.
The Ritz Carlton and one other hotel there have recently declared bankrutcy.

The community itself is undeniable beautiful, but the home owners association fee's are very high. Many homes there have three different dues that need to be paid. I personally feel that this community will be fine eventually, but it will be a while before things out there do recover. I do not think you have to worry about the community vanishing or drying up. There has been millions or dollars spent out there and there is still plenty of land left. There are also several celebrities that call Lake Las Vegas home. This community will eventually recover and be built out, it will just take the right developer with some vision and a new much lower cost basis to make this happen.

Let me know if I can be of any further assistance.

Ron Johnson
Elite Realty
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jul 26, 2009
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