Paul, this is very difficult to answer. This is when a crystal ball would really come in handy. If you listen and/or read media reports some areas are still going to drop by an estimate of 50%, interest rates are going to increase.
Presently in my area, prices have increased and interest rates are under 5%. Demand for housing is strong and supply is low. So if you were in my neighborhood I would choose #3.
If there are a lot of foreclosures and you can buy a home for less than it would cost to build one then wait. Choose #1
I am not sure of picking #2 even huge builders only build the models before building totally.
You should probably contact a realtor that has knowledge of the local market in that area.