I have one of those big fancy aerial photos of Phoenix in my office. They are made by Landiscor and cost a ridiculous amount of money, but as a talking point, it's almost invaluable for people trying to understand the greater Phoenix area.
When they begin to talk about the most outlying areas, like Queen Creek, and housing prices, I show them the map, and I show them all of the vacant land that still exists between where they are thinking, and the airport. As we know, all of that vacant land will one day develop into housing. And when it does, it will be competition for everything that is further from the airport than the new home that goes up 5 or 10 or 15 miles closer to the airport.
That new home, on fresh new land, will be new. It will be built to the "modern" standard, whatever that happens to be 5 or 10 years from now. Perhaps that is more energy efficient, bigger, smaller, taller, fatter--we really don't know. But when it is built, people will like the shiny new thing, and the older thing that's further away will look...dated.
So when will Queen Creek bounce back? I've told my clients for years now: When all of that vacant land gets built. Right now there is far too much inventory, and the land is not even 50% built. Personally, I think it's going to be a long time. If a true bounce back happens by 2013, I'd be very surprised. My guess would be 2017, IF the economy doesn't plow into a great depression, thanks to our governments economic policies.... more