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articles about “Price & Rent Monitors

Home Prices and Population Growth: Cities vs. Suburbs

From some angles, it looks like the housing recovery has brought an urban resurgence: for instance, the most urban counties are growing faster now than during the housing bubble, and many dense cities are having a boom in apartment construction. However, the most recent data show that asking prices in urban neighborhoods are rising only slightly faster than in the suburbs, and the suburbs actually have higher population growth.

 The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed (see note #1 below).

Asking Prices Continue to Rise as Spring House Hunting Season Begins
Despite declining investor purchases and more inventory coming onto the market, asking home prices continued to rise at the start of the spring housing season. Month-over-month, asking prices rose 1.2% nationally in March 2014, seasonally adjusted. Quarter-over-quarter, asking prices rose 2.9% in March 2014, seasonally adjusted, reflecting three straight months of solid month-over-month gains.

Year-over-year, asking prices are up 10% nationally and up in 97 of the 100 largest metros. Albany, NY, Hartford, CT, and New Haven, CT, are the only three large metros where prices fell year-over-year, albeit slightly.

TruliaPriceMonitor_LineChart_Mar2014

March 2014 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

 

% change in asking prices

# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases

% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted

1.2%

Not reported

1.1%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

2.9%

97

2.8%

Year-over-year

10.0%

97

9.5%

*Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

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What The Home-Price Slowdown Really Looks Like

The current slowdown of home prices has been sharpest in markets that crashed during the bust and bounced back last year. And although asking-price gains have been slowing since last spring, price increases remain high by historical standards.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Asking-Price Gains Have Been Slowing Down Since April 2013
Nationally, asking home prices rose 10.4% year-over-year in February 2014, down slightly after peaking in November 2013. But the year-over-year change is an average of the past twelve months and therefore obscures the most recent trends in prices. Looking at quarter-over-quarter changes instead, it’s clear that price gains have been slowing for most of the last year: asking home prices rose just 1.9% in February – a rate similar to those recorded in January and December – compared with increases near 2.5% from July 2013 to November 2013 and over 3% from April 2013 to June 2013. The quarter-over-quarter change in asking prices topped out at 3.5% in April 2013 and now, at 1.9%, the increase is just over half of that peak.

But even with this slowdown in gains, prices are still rising much faster than the historical norm. The quarter-over-quarter increase in February of 1.9% implies an annualized rate of almost 8% – which is well above the long-term average.

TruliaPriceMonitor_LineChart_Feb2014

February 2014 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

% change in asking prices

# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases

% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted

0.9%

Not reported

0.9%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

1.9%

87

1.8%

Year-over-year

10.4%

97

9.8%

* Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

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5 Truths of Tech-Hub Housing Costs

This special edition of Trulia’s Price and Rent Monitors looks at affordability in housing markets with local tech industries. Prices today are 82% higher in tech hubs than in other large metros, but most of this gap existed before the modern Internet era. Furthermore, housing markets differ radically among tech hubs: the most affordable, Raleigh, costs one-fifth as much as San Francisco and has ten times as much new housing construction.

Jed Kolko, Chief Economist
February 6, 2014

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Asking Prices Up 1.1% Month-over-Month in January
In January, asking home prices rose 1.1% month-over-month, the largest monthly gain since June 2013. But the quarter-over-quarter price increase of 2.1% remains below spring 2013 levels, when asking prices accelerated at their fastest rate in the recovery. Year-over-year, asking prices are up 11.4% nationally and are positive in 97 of the 100 largest metros.

TruliaPriceMonitor_LineChart_Jan2014

January 2014 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

% change in asking prices

# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases

% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted

1.1%

Not reported

0.8%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

2.1%

84

1.8%

Year-over-year

11.4%

97

10.7%

*Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

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The Post-Crash Rebound, Not Job Growth, Drove 2013 Price Gains

In 2013, the housing markets with the biggest increases in asking prices were all rebounding from severe price drops in the housing bust. Home prices are still in rebound mode, but this effect will weaken in 2014. Job growth, in contrast, mattered little for price gains in 2013 but helped drive rent increases.

Jed Kolko, Chief Economist
January 9, 2014

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Asking Prices Up 11.9% Y-o-Y in December, Slower Than in November
In December, the year-over-year increase in asking home prices slowed for the first time since the price recovery began in early 2012: prices rose 11.9% year-over-year in December, compared with November’s 12.2% year-over-year increase. Asking prices rose 0.4% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted, the third straight month of gains less than 1%.

Quarter-over-quarter, prices rose 2.6% seasonally adjusted, which is also a slowdown from previous months. Quarter-over-quarter asking prices rose in 83 of the 100 largest metros and fell in 17, which is the most metros with quarter-over-quarter price declines in 10 months.

Trulia_PriceMonitor_LineChart_Dec2013

December 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

% change in asking prices

# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases

% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted

0.4%

Not reported

-0.5%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

2.6%

83

1.6%

Year-over-year

11.9%

98

11.3%

*Month-over-month change is December versus November. Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes are three-month averages. Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

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Hottest Housing Markets Cool, But Warm Markets Heat Up

All housing is local – including the price slowdown. Asking-price gains have slowed sharply in Las Vegas, Oakland, Atlanta, and Phoenix, but price increases are accelerating in metros where the price rebound has been more modest.

Jed Kolko, Chief Economist
December 4, 2013

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Asking Prices Up 1.0% M-o-M in November, Regaining a Bit of Steam
In November, asking home prices rose 1.0% month-over-month and 3.0% quarter-over-quarter.  The quarterly increase is the fastest in five months, though still lower than in the spring. Year-over-year, prices are up 12.1% nationally and have increased in 98 of the 100 largest metros.

Trulia_Price Monitor_Line Chart_Nov2013

November 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

% change in asking prices

# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases

% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted
           1.0%

Not reported

0.6%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

3.0%

88

2.4%

Year-over-year

12.1%

98

11.9%

*Month-over-month change is November versus October. Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes are three-month averages. Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

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