Homeownership Archives - Trulia TrendsTrulia Trends
Real Estate Data for the Rest of Us

articles about “Homeownership

America’s Dream Home: Midsized, Suburban and Modern

Americans are surprisingly practical when it comes to their dream homes. Being married and having children is one of the biggest drivers of homeownership, but age will likely determine the type of homes that people want.

For many Americans, homeownership is part of their personal American Dream. For some, this dream of owning a home is well within reach, but for others it may as well be a dream within a dream. But what does this dream home look like? And where is located? What amenities do people dream of most? To find out, an online survey conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Trulia surveyed 2,026 Americans in late May 2015 to tell us about their homeownership aspirations and the home they hope to buy one day. Here’s what we found.

First Comes Marriage, Then Comes Baby and House
With the U.S. housing market on the mend, 7 in 10 Americans (71%) said owning a home is part of achieving their personal “American Dream.” While still a majority, this is a notable decrease from 77% in 2010. Yet despite this downward trend, America is not becoming a nation of renters. Most Millennial renters aged 18-34 (89%) plan to buy a home one day – more than any other generation.

American Dream Home_WhoWantsToBuy

But as more people today forgo or delay marriage and children, homeownership has become more of a lifestyle choice than an expected life milestone. Among parents with children under 18 years old, 81% said homeownership is part of their American Dream. In fact, most parents – regardless of their marital status – plan to buy a home as their primary residence once day.

American Dream Home_KidsDriveHomeownership

More than 7 in 10 Millennials Plan to Buy in 2018 or Later
While many Americans aspire to become homeowners, most are not ready to buy a home. Only 14% of those who plan to buy say they will do so within the next year. Most (69%) plan to wait at least two years.

In tracking the housing recovery, the intentions of Millennials has been a key indicator that we’ve been following. Why? This generation of first-time homebuyers was hit hard during the recession, and their ability to find jobs, move out of their parents’ homes and form their own households, and eventually become homeowners is a key part of a healthy housing market. Of the 18-34 years old who aspire to become homeowners, 72% said they plan to buy a home in 2018 or later. The sense of urgency only increased when marriage and children were involved.

American Dream Home_When

When Do You Plan to Buy (Another) Home as Your Primary Residence?
All Married without Kids Under 18 Married with Kids Under 18
Within the next 6 months 4% 6% 9%
7-12 months from now 7% 10% 18%
13-24 months from now 17% 29% 20%
More than 2 years from now 72% 55% 53%
Note: Among Millennials (18-34 year old) who plan purchase a home

So what’s holding Millennials back from homeownership? Money. Only 36% of Millennials are currently saving up to buy a home in the next five years. Most (52%) have their eyes on a new car, while others have shifted their priorities towards college tuition (35%), a trip of a lifetime (26%), a wedding (15%), retirement (9%) or an engagement ring (8%). Nevertheless, this generation remains optimistic with 87% believing that they will be able to purchase their dream home one day.

Most Americans Aren’t Dreaming About McMansions or Tiny Homes
Only a small subset of Americans (just 35% of homeowners) said they’ve already purchased their dream homes – that means an overwhelming majority are still searching for a perfect place to call “dream home”. In fact, over one quarter of Americans are regularly searching for a dream home online with 28% looking at least once a month. So what does the American dream home look like? Well, it really depends on how old you are.

In general, Americans aren’t big fans of McMansions or tiny homes. In fact, 44% want a home between 1,401 and 2,600 square feet – one that’s neither too small, nor too big. However, as people get older, their dream home gets smaller.

American Dream Home_HomeSize

How Big Is Your Dream Home?
All Millennials (18-34 Year Olds) Gen X (35-54 Year Olds) Baby Boomers (55+ Year Olds)
800-1,400 square feet 10% 5% 7% 15%
1,401-2,000 square feet 21% 17% 18% 25%
2,001-2,600 square feet 23% 20% 24% 24%
2,601-3,200 square feet 14% 16% 15% 11%
More than 3,200 square feet 11% 12% 14% 7%
Not Sure 22% 29% 22% 17%

Moreover, Millennials and Gen X gravitate towards modern homes, which can often have newer home amenities and technologies. Baby Boomers, on the other hand, want ranch homes (aka single-story homes that are typically more accessible and without stairs).

And contrary to what you might think, only 6% of millennials would prefer a high-rise penthouse. That said, they are still 6X more likely to prefer this type of home than any other generations – even those with kids under 18. Similarly, only 4% of millennials dream of converted lofts, while Baby Boomers have no affinity for converted lofts at all.

American Dream Home_Style

What Does Your Dream Home Look Like?

All

Millennials (18-34 Year Olds) Gen X (35-54 Year Olds) Baby Boomers (55+ Years Old)
Modern Style Home 18% 22% 17% 16%
Ranch Home 15% 6% 13% 23%
Victorian or Craftsman Style Home 11% 13% 12% 7%
Farm House or Log Cabin 10% 10% 11% 9%
Colonial or Southern Plantation Style Home 8% 8% 8% 7%
High-rise penthouse apartment 3% 6% 1% 1%
Converted Loft 2% 4% 1% 0%
Other

33%

31% 37%

37%

Note: “Other” includes options such as Mediterranean style home, townhouse and houseboat, as well as other.

Americans Dream of Suburbs Over Cities
When describing where their dream home is located, most Americans wanted to live in the countryside (27%) and suburbs (27%) rather than in the heart of a major American city (8%). This was especially true for Baby Boomers and Gen X. But for Millennials, living a short commute to work (34%) and in a great school district (34%) were far more important that the actual location. But generational differences aside, there were some notable geographical preferences.

American Dream Home_GeoLocation

Top Dream Home Amenities: Decks, Gourmet Kitchens and Open Floor Plans
Americans love to entertain and eat. The top dream home features were social spaces where guests could gather and mingle, namely a backyard deck, open floor plan, or balcony with a view. Food-related amenities like a gourmet kitchen or vegetable garden were also popular. But as for private spaces, 44% of men wanted a man cave whereas only 17% women wanted a she shed (aka, a recreational room for the ladies).

American Dream Home_Amenities

Top “Dream Home” Features
% of Americans Who Want This Feature % of Homes Listed for Sale on Trulia as Having This Feature in the Last Year
Backyard Deck 59% 8.5%
Gourmet Kitchen 47% 2.0%
Open Floor Plan 46% 3.9%
Balcony with a View 45% 1.3%
Vegetable Garden 40% 0.1%

Millennials, compared to any other generation, want it all. Given the option, 18-34 year olds would like all the latest and greatest amenities in their dream home – especially want a balcony with a view.

Top “Dream Home” Features for Millennials
Balcony with a View 60%
Backyard Deck 59%
Gourmet Kitchen 53%
Swimming Pool 52%
Open Floor Plan 45%

Generation X, however, followed the national trend with most wanting a backyard deck. The only variation was that 35-54 year olds preferred having a swimming pool over a vegetable garden.

Top “Dream Home” Features for Gen X
Backyard Deck 65%
Gourmet Kitchen 50%
Open Floor Plan 47%
Balcony with a View 46%
Swimming Pool 44%

Similar to Generation X, Baby Boomers want a backyard deck, open floor plan and gourmet kitchen. But unlike other generations, the 55+ age group has a green thumb with 37% wanting a vegetable garden.

Top “Dream Home” Features for Baby Boomers
Backyard Deck 55%
Open Floor Plan 46%
Gourmet Kitchen 41%
Vegetable Garden 37%
Balcony with a View 33%

All in all, Americans are pretty realistic and practical when it comes what they want in their dream home. Most people aren’t looking for a grand mansion, tiny home or even a home with an iconic architectural style – they want a mid-sized, modern home in the suburbs with a backyard deck. This is likely because the dream of homeownership is largely driven by marriage and children. Having a duel income makes buying a home more affordable, while parents often want the stability that comes with owning a home. As a result, many would-be homeowners dream of finding a home where they can raise their families. Such is the game of life.

 

METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted online within the United States between May 26th and 28th, 2015 among 2,026 adults (aged 18 and over) by Harris Poll on behalf of Trulia via its Quick Query omnibus product. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, the words “margin of error” are avoided as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in our surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

0 comments

What Falling Oil Prices Mean for Home Prices

The recent plunge in oil prices could cause home prices to slip in the oil-producing markets of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and elsewhere. But it typically takes two years for oil prices to fully affect home prices in those markets. At the same time, lower oil prices could boost home values in the Northeast and Midwest.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of housing price and rent trends nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months. As a result, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. Here then is the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Asking Prices Slowed in December, Rising 0.5% Month-Over-Month

Nationwide, asking prices on for-sale homes were up 0.5% month-over-month in December, seasonally adjusted — a slowdown after larger increases in September, October, and November. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 7.7%, down from the 9.5% year-over-year increase in December 2013. Asking prices increased year-over-year in 97 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.

December 2014 Trulia Price Monitor Summary
% change in asking prices # of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases % change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures
Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted
0.5% N/A 0.7%
Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted
3.4% 87 3.7%
Year-over-year 7.7% 97 8.1%
Data from previous months are revised each month, so current data reported for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

Where and When Falling Oil Prices Will Hurt — Or Help — Home Prices

Four of the five markets where asking prices rose most year-over-year are in the South, including Atlanta, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, and Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach. Of the top 10, four are in the Midwest, including Cincinnati, Detroit, Lake-Kenosha Counties, and Indianapolis. Among markets with the largest asking price increases, Houston stands out for having a large local oil industry, accounting for 5.6% of jobs there.

 

  Where Prices Increased Most in December
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % asking price change, Dec 2014 % of jobs in oil-related industries
1 Atlanta, GA 15.9% 0.3%
2 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 15.5% 0.1%
3 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 15.0% 0.1%
4 Cincinnati, OH 14.8% 0.1%
5 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 14.7% 0.1%
6 Oakland, CA 14.5% 0.4%
7 Houston, TX 13.4% 5.6%
8 Detroit, MI 12.9% 0.6%
9 Lake-Kenosha Counties, IL-WI 12.7% 0.1%
10 Indianapolis, IN 12.6% 0.2%
Note: among 100 largest metros. Employment in oil-related industries is from County Business Patterns, 2012 (see note at end of post). To download the list of asking home price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF.

metro map dec 2014

Only Bakersfield and Baton Rouge have an even higher employment share in oil-related industries than Houston. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, New Orleans, and Fort Worth round out the seven large metros where oil-related industries account for at least 2% of employment. It’s not until you look at smaller metros that you find oil-related industries representing a larger employment share. In Williston, ND, and Midland, TX, they account for almost 30% of local jobs.

oil country map dec 2014

On average, in the seven large metros where oil-related jobs are at least 2% of the total, home prices rose 10.5% year-over-year — faster than the 7.7% increase for the 100 largest metros overall.

Home Price Changes in Top Oil-Employment Markets
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % asking price change, Dec 2014 % of jobs in oil-related industries
1 Bakersfield, CA 12.4% 6.9%
2 Baton Rouge, LA 3.0% 6.1%
3 Houston, TX 13.4% 5.6%
4 Oklahoma City, OK 6.3% 4.3%
5 Tulsa, OK 10.1% 3.7%
6 New Orleans, LA 7.3% 2.6%
7 Fort Worth, TX 10.2% 2.5%
8 Gary, IN 7.3% 1.8%
9 Wichita, KS 5.3% 1.4%
10 Toledo, OH 10.2% 1.0%
Note: among 100 largest metros. Employment in oil-related industries is from County Business Patterns, 2012 (see note at end of post).

Oil prices have plunged from over $100/barrel in July 2014 to around $50/barrel in early January 2015, threatening oil-producing economies around the world. Within the U.S., big oil price drops have historically been associated with job losses and falling home prices in energy-producing regions. In particular, plummeting oil prices in the 1980s were followed by declines in employment and home prices in Houston, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, New Orleans, and other nearby markets.

We looked at year-over-year trends in oil prices, jobs, and home prices from 1980 to the present in the 100 largest metros and found that:

  1. In oil-producing markets, home prices tend to follow oil prices, but with a lag. For instance, in the 1980s, the largest year-over-year oil price declines were in early- and mid-1986. In Houston, job losses were steepest in late 1986. But home prices didn’t slide most until the third quarter of 1987. Since 1980, employment in oil-producing markets has followed oil-price movements roughly two quarters later and home prices have followed oil-price movements roughly two years later.
  2. While home prices and oil prices move in the same direction in oil-producing markets, they tend to move in the opposite direction in many other markets. Cheaper oil lowers the costs of driving, heating a home, and other activities, boosting local economies outside oil-producing regions. In the Northeast and Midwest especially, home prices tend to rise after oil prices fall. The specific markets where home prices get the biggest jolt depend on which years we analyze.

This history offers three lessons for today’s housing market. First, any negative impact of falling oil prices on home prices should be concentrated in oil-producing markets in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and other places with large oil-related industries. Second, in these markets, oil prices won’t tank home prices immediately. Rather, falling oil prices in the second half of 2014 might not have their biggest impact on home prices until late 2015 or in 2016. Third, falling oil prices will probably help local economies and home prices in markets that lack oil-related industries.

Rental Affordability Toughest in Miami, Los Angeles, and New York

Nationwide, rents rose 6.1% year-over-year in December. The least affordable rental markets are Miami, Los Angeles, and New York, where median rent for a two-bedroom unit eats up more than half of the local average wage. Rents are rising faster than the national average in the markets that are already the least affordable. The most affordable large rental markets are St. Louis, Phoenix, and Houston. Although Denver had the largest year-over-year increases, Denver rentals remain more affordable than those in most of the big coastal markets.

Rent Trends in the 25 Largest Rental Markets
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % change in rents, Dec 2014 Median rent for 2-bedroom, Dec 2014 Median rent for 2-bedroom as share of average local wage
1 Miami, FL 7.4% 2300 57%
2 Los Angeles, CA 7.0% 2450 53%
3 New York, NY 9.3% 3200 52%
4 Oakland, CA 11.6% 2400 45%
5 San Francisco, CA 10.8% 3600 45%
6 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 5.0% 1500 44%
7 Orange County, CA 7.4% 2050 44%
8 San Diego, CA 4.1% 1950 42%
9 Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA 6.8% 2250 39%
10 Boston, MA 4.3% 2300 39%
11 Newark, NJ 7.1% 2100 37%
12 Chicago, IL 6.0% 1750 37%
13 Baltimore, MD 8.7% 1550 35%
14 Washington, DC 2.9% 2000 34%
15 Denver, CO 14.1% 1500 31%
16 Philadelphia, PA 7.5% 1500 31%
17 Seattle, WA 6.1% 1700 31%
18 Portland, OR 8.8% 1300 30%
19 Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL 7.5% 1100 29%
20 Dallas, TX 5.4% 1400 29%
21 Atlanta, GA 5.9% 1250 28%
22 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 3.2% 1300 28%
23 Houston, TX 3.1% 1400 27%
24 Phoenix, AZ 8.6% 1050 26%
25 St. Louis, MO 8.5% 900 22%
Note: average local wage is from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for the year up to 2014 Q2.

The next Price and Rent Monitors are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, February 10.

Notes:

The share of jobs in oil-related industries is based on County Business Patterns, 2012. Oil-related industries include NAICS codes 211, 213111, 213112, 2212, 23712, 32411, 333132, 4247, 4861, 4862,and 48691; these cover oil and gas extraction, drilling, support operations, refineries, machinery construction, pipeline construction, and pipeline transportation. Nationally, 0.9% of jobs are in these oil-related industries. For counties where the exact industry employment level was suppressed for confidentiality reasons, we estimated employment based on the establishment size distribution.

To estimate the relationship among trends in oil prices, employment, and home prices, we identified the lags that yielded the highest correlations between the time series for individual metros. Because the results are sensitive to the time period analyzed and other assumptions, we are reporting only the broad results that hold under various assumptions.

This post (and future Trulia Trends posts) uses new government metropolitan area definitions, as explained in this FAQ.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor track asking home prices and rents on a monthly basis, adjusting for the changing composition of listed homes, including foreclosures provided by RealtyTrac. The Trulia Price Monitor also accounts for regular seasonal fluctuations in asking prices in order to reveal underlying price trends. The Monitors can detect price movements at least three months before the major sales-price indexes. Historical data are revised monthly. Thus, historical data presented in the current release are the best comparison with current data. Our FAQs provide the technical details.

0 comments

Housing’s Millennial Mismatch

Asking prices are rising faster in Gen X, boomer, and senior markets than in millennial markets. But there’s a mismatch in where young adults live versus where they can afford to buy a home. For many millennials, homeownership will require moving to a cheaper market.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of housing price and rent trends nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months. As a result, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Asking Prices Accelerated in November, Rising 7.4% Year-over-Year

Nationwide, asking prices on for-sale homes jumped 1.5% month-over-month in November, seasonally adjusted — a surprisingly large increase. Future months will tell whether this was a blip or the beginning of a sustained climb. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 7.4%, down from the 10.3% year-over-year increase in November 2013. Asking prices rose year-over-year in 98 of the 100 largest U.S. metros — everywhere but Little Rock and New Haven.

November 2014 Trulia Price Monitor Summary
% change in asking prices # of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases % change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures
Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted
1.5% N/A 1.6%
Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted
3.4% 95 3.5%
Year-over-year 7.4% 98 7.3%
Data from previous months are revised each month, so current data reported for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

Prices Rising Fast in Florida, Slowest in Favorite Millennial Markets

Four of the 10 metros where asking prices rose most year-over-year were in Florida. These Sunshine State markets have older populations, and they all have a lower share of millennials than the national average of 21% and a higher share of baby boomers than the average of 24%. In fact, only one of the 10 markets with the largest price increases in November has a higher share of millennials than the national average—and only slightly (Las Vegas, at 22%).

Where Prices Increased Most in November
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % asking price change, Nov 2014 % of population age 20-34 (Millennials) % of population age 50-69 (Boomers)
1 Ventura County, CA 17.2% 20% 24%
2 Palm BayMelbourneTitusville, FL 15.2% 16% 30%
3 North PortBradentonSarasota, FL 14.7% 14% 30%
4 Oakland, CA 13.4% 21% 24%
5 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 13.4% 20% 25%
6 Cape CoralFort Myers, FL 13.3% 16% 29%
7 LakelandWinter Haven, FL 13.0% 18% 25%
8 Las Vegas, NV 12.9% 22% 23%
9 Detroit, MI 12.9% 20% 25%
10 Atlanta, GA 12.9% 21% 22%
National average 7.4% 21% 24%
Note: among 100 largest metros. Population shares based on 2013 Census population estimates. To download the list of asking home price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF

metro map nov 2014

To see how the age distribution of a metro’s population relates to home prices, we identified the 10 markets with the highest shares of each of four distinct generations: millennials (age 20–34); Gen X (age 35–49); boomers (age 50–69); and seniors (age 70 and up). (See note.) In the 10 markets where millennials account for the largest share of the population, including Austin, San Diego, and Virginia Beach-Norfolk, the average year-over-year price increase was 6.1% — below the 7.4% national increase. Markets with the highest shares of Gen Xers, including Raleigh, San Francisco, and San Jose, averaged price increases of 9.4% — highest among the four age groups. Prices in the favorite markets of seniors, most of which are in Florida, rose 8.6% — also above the national increase.

GenerationalHomePrices

The Millennial Mismatch in Housing Affordability

When young adult renters are asked if they will buy a home someday, a whopping 93% say yes. You’d think it would be good news for them that prices are rising more slowly in the markets where they currently live. Not so fast though. Prices might be rising more slowly in millennials’ favorite metros. But affordability is nonetheless a big challenge in those markets.

To see this, compare the millennial population share in each metro with the percentage of homes for sale that a typical millennial household can afford (from our most recent Middle Class Affordability report — see note below on how we define affordability). In metros with higher millennial shares, homeownership tends to be less affordable for this group. For instance, in Austin, Honolulu, New York, and San Diego, 20–34 year-olds account for at least 23.5% of the population, putting those metros in the top 10 for millennial share. But fewer than 30% of homes for sale in those markets are within reach of the typical millennial household. Some markets with a high millennial share are more affordable, including Oklahoma City and Baton Rouge, but they’re the exception (see note).

LiveVsAfford[2]

Call it the “millennial mismatch.” Millennials can afford markets where they don’t live, but they can’t afford many of the markets where they do live. Many millennials who hope to buy someday will be priced out of the market where they live now. They’ll face a tough choice: Do they keep renting or move to a cheaper market?

Rents Gains Easing Slightly in Most Large Markets

Rents continued to climb. Nationwide, rents rose 6.1% year-over-year in November. Still, rent gains have cooled since August in 14 of the 25 largest rental markets, including the Northern California markets of San Francisco, Oakland, and Sacramento. In November, Denver had the steepest increases in the country, though the typical two-bedroom unit there still rents for less than half of what it would cost in San Francisco or New York. But rent increases could slow next year if new apartment construction finally catches up with demand.

Rent Trends in the 25 Largest Rental Markets
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % change in rents, Nov 2014 Y-o-Y % change in rents, Aug 2014 Median rent for 2-bedroom, Nov 2014
1 Denver, CO 14.2% 12.7% 1550
2 San Francisco, CA 12.2% 13.4% 3600
3 Oakland, CA 11.9% 14.3% 2450
4 Baltimore, MD 9.3% 8.1% 1550
5 Phoenix, AZ 8.5% 8.1% 1050
6 New York, NY-NJ 8.3% 5.4% 3400
7 Sacramento, CA 8.2% 13.4% 1200
8 Portland, OR-WA 7.8% 3.5% 1300
9 Philadelphia, PA 7.5% 9.2% 1550
10 TampaSt. Petersburg, FL 7.4% 5.5% 1150
11 Miami, FL 7.3% 9.0% 2300
12 Los Angeles, CA 7.3% 8.2% 2500
13 Seattle, WA 7.3% 8.5% 1750
14 Orange County, CA 7.3% 4.7% 2100
15 St. Louis, MO-IL 7.3% 6.3% 950
16 Las Vegas, NV 6.5% 5.4% 950
17 Chicago, IL 5.9% 7.2% 1700
18 RiversideSan Bernardino, CA 5.8% 6.1% 1550
19 Dallas, TX 5.7% 4.5% 1400
20 Atlanta, GA 5.6% 7.5% 1200
21 Houston, TX 4.2% 4.2% 1400
22 San Diego, CA 4.0% 6.5% 2000
23 Boston, MA 3.8% 4.5% 2300
24 Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV 3.4% 3.6% 2000
25 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI 1.8% 1.7% 1300
Note: among 100 largest metros. Population shares based on 2013 Census population estimates. To download the list of rent price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF

Note: Data on share of metro population in each age group are from the Census’s 2013 county population estimates. Because the Census reports county population estimates by age in 5-year buckets (20–24, 25–29, etc.), we defined the four age groups as 20–34 (millennials), 35–49 (Gen X), 50–69 (boomers), and 70+ (seniors).

The correlation for the data shown in the scatterplot between millennial share and homeownership affordability for millennials is -0.28 (-0.48 when weighted by metro number of households), which is statistically significant at the 5% level.

We measure affordability as the share of homes for sale on Trulia within reach of the typical millennial household. Our standard is whether the total monthly payment, including mortgage, insurance, and property taxes, is less than 31% of the metro area’s median income for households headed by millennials. The total monthly cost includes the mortgage payment assuming a 4.2% 30-year fixed rate mortgage with 20% down, property taxes based on average metro property tax rate, and insurance. We chose 31% of income as the affordability cutoff to be consistent with government guidelines for affordability.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor track asking home prices and rents on a monthly basis, adjusting for the changing composition of listed homes, including foreclosures provided by RealtyTrac. The Trulia Price Monitor also accounts for regular seasonal fluctuations in asking prices in order to reveal underlying price trends. The Monitors can detect price movements at least three months before the major sales-price indexes. Historical data are revised monthly. Thus, historical data presented in the current release are the best comparison with current data. Our FAQs provide the technical details.

0 comments

Where Veterans Live

Veterans tend to live in affordable smaller metros and rural areas, near military bases, and in places with fewer immigrants. Among the largest 100 metros, Colorado Springs and Virginia Beach have the highest concentration of veterans, while Miami, New York, and Los Angeles have the lowest.

Roughly 1 in 12 civilian adults are veterans. But in some smaller metros that figure is as high as 1 in 5, while in several large metros it’s just 1 in 20. We’re marking Veterans Day the Trulia way, by taking a look at where people who served their country in the armed forces live.

Basic Training on Veteran Demographics and Homeownership

Where veterans live reflects who they are. Veterans tend to be older. Their median age is 64, nearly two decades older than the 45-year-old median age of civilian adults who didn’t serve in the armed forces. Gulf War veterans are relatively young, with a median age of 41. But they’re outnumbered by Vietnam Era vets, whose median age is 65. Veterans of the Korean War and World War II are older still.

War or Era Served In

Share of civilian adult population Median age
Gulf War 2.2% 41
Vietnam Era 2.9% 65
Korean War 0.9% 81
World War II 0.5% 88
All veterans
8.1% 64

Note: Some veterans served in multiple wars or eras, and others served only between wars and eras. Therefore, data for “all veterans” does not equal the sum or average of the above rows in the table.

Veterans are also overwhelming male (92%), and born in the U.S. Just 3% of veterans are foreign-born, compared with 17% of the non-veteran civilian population.

Finally, veterans are more likely to be homeowners than other adults. Households headed by veterans have a 79% homeownership rate, significantly higher than the 63% rate for households headed by civilian non-veterans. Age accounts for most of this gap. As we noted, there’s a two-decade age gap between veterans and non-veteran civilians, and, except for the very old, the homeownership rate is higher for older adults. Nevertheless, even adjusting for this age difference, homeownership is still about seven percentage points higher for veterans, thanks in part to U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs loan programs (VA loans) and other incentives.

As we’ll see below, these demographic differences help explain where veterans live.

Top Veteran Areas are Smaller Metros Near Military Bases

Veterans tend not to be concentrated in big cities. They account for only 6.4% of the civilian adult population in big, dense cities (see note). But they make up 11.2% in small towns and rural areas.

VeteranGraph

Because veterans tend to live outside larger markets, we looked at the largest 500 metros rather than just the 100 largest, as we typically do in Trulia Trends. In 7 of the 500 largest metros, veterans represent more than 20% of the civilian adult population. The 10 metros with the highest share of veterans have one thing in common: they are affordable. Their median asking price per square foot is below $150 in all but Oak Harbor, WA. Several of these metros have large military bases, including Camp Lejeune in Jacksonville, NC; Fort Hood in KilleenTempleFort Hood, TX; and Fort Sill in Lawton, OK.

Metros with Highest Veteran Share

# U.S. Metro Veteran Share of Civilian Adult Population Median Asking Home Price Per Square Foot, $
1 CrestviewFort Walton BeachDestin, FL 22.3% 137
2 Oak Harbor, WA 22.0% 173
3 Jacksonville, NC 21.4% 110
4 KilleenTempleFort Hood, TX 21.2% 82
5 The Villages, FL 20.4% 122
6 Sierra VistaDouglas, AZ 20.2% 91
7 Fayetteville, NC 20.0% 86
8 Lawton, OK 19.6% 75
9 Clarksville, TN-KY 19.2% 91
10 BremertonSilverdale, WA 19.1% 142
Note: among 500 largest U.S. metros. Veteran share is from Census; home prices from Trulia.

None of the 100 largest metros makes the list. In fact, the largest of the top 10 is Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX, which ranks just 153rd in population nationwide. Among the largest 100, Colorado Springs and Virginia Beach-Norfolk have the highest share of veterans. Both also have major military bases. Even among these larger metros with high concentrations of veterans, housing is relatively affordable.

Metros with Highest Veteran Share (Large Metros Only)

# U.S. Metro Veteran Share of Civilian Adult Population Median Asking Home Price Per Square Foot, $
1 Colorado Springs, CO 18.4% 107
2 Virginia BeachNorfolk, VA-NC 17.8% 129
3 Palm BayMelbourneTitusville, FL 16.4% 100
4 Tacoma, WA 15.2% 134
5 North PortBradentonSarasota, FL 14.4% 150
6 Jacksonville, FL 14.0% 109
7 Charleston, SC 13.2% 134
8 Cape CoralFort Myers, FL 13.1% 133
9 San Antonio, TX 12.9% 107
10 Tucson, AZ 12.5% 111
Note: among 100 largest U.S. metros ONLY. Veteran share is from Census; home prices from Trulia.

Where are veterans scarce? Of the largest 500 metros, the 10 with the lowest share include several large metros: Miami, New York, Los Angeles, San Jose, and San Francisco. But the list also includes Laredo and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX, and El Centro, CA, on the Mexican border. Five of the bottom 10 are expensive markets, with prices over $300 per square foot: New York, the 3 big California metros, and Edwards, CO, which includes the Vail ski resort.

Metros with Lowest Veteran Share

# U.S. Metro Veteran Share of Civilian Adult Population Median Asking Home Price Per Square Foot, $
1 Miami, FL 3.2% 180
2 Laredo, TX 3.7% 94
3 New York, NY-NJ 3.8% 320
4 McAllenEdinburgMission, TX 4.6% 82
5 Los Angeles, CA 4.6% 334
6 San Jose, CA 5.1% 430
7 Edwards, CO 5.2% 336
8 ProvoOrem, UT 5.4% 96
9 El Centro, CA 5.4% 116
10 San Francisco, CA 5.5% 613
Note: among 500 largest U.S. metros. Veteran share is from Census; home prices from Trulia.

So what can we say in general about where veterans live? The map shows no clear regional pattern. Many western states have pockets where veterans live, but California has relatively few veterans. Florida includes the metro with the highest share of veterans, Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, and the lowest, Miami. Texas has Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, with a high proportion of veterans, and border towns with low concentrations.

veterans county map

 

Still, we can make some generalizations. We should note first though that where veterans live depends on when they served. Gulf War vets tend to live in different places than World War II vets, not least because they’re on average more than four decades younger.

In sum, veterans are more likely to live:

  1. Near military bases and areas with active-duty residents. This is especially true for Gulf War veterans.
  2. In more affordable, lower density areas. Vietnam Era veterans, in particular, are more likely than other veterans or civilian non-veterans to live in small towns and rural areas.
  3. In areas with a lower share of foreign-born residents, especially older vets.
  4. In retirement areas, especially if they’re Korean War or World War II vets. In fact, the metros with the highest shares of these older veterans are in Florida.

Though their share of the population may vary, veterans can be found in nearly every community in America. If you want to thank a veteran on November 11, you probably won’t have to look far.

 

Notes: the Census identifies veterans as serving in the Gulf War, the Vietnam Era, the Korean War, and World War II, as well as between conflicts. See tables S2101 and B21002 in American FactFinder.

Homeownership rates are calculated from the 2013 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) and are based on whether the head of household, spouse, or unmarried partner is a veteran.

All national figures are based on the 2013 1-year ACS. All metro and county figures are based on the 2012 5-year ACS, covering the period 2008-2012. Nationally, veteran share of the civilian population was 8.1% in the 2013 ACS and 9.3% in the 2012 5-year ACS.

County density is based on tract-weighted density, and quartiles were defined to be roughly equal in total population.. See note to this post for more detail.

To identify the location of military bases, we used Census data on the share of adults currently in the armed forces (which not does include veterans) from table DP03 in American FactFinder.

 

0 comments

What Home Price Slowdown? Some Markets Buck the Trend

Asking prices are rising more slowly now than a year ago. The price slowdown in especially sharp in California and the Southwest. Nevertheless, in 40 of the 100 largest markets, price gains have accelerated.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of housing price and rent trends nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months. As a result, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed. 

Asking Prices Rose 6.4% Year-over-Year in October

Nationally, the month-over-month increase in asking home prices rose to 1.0% in October. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 6.4%, down from the 10.6% year-over-year increase in October 2013. Asking prices rose year-over-year in 91 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.

October 2014 Trulia Price Monitor Summary
% change in asking prices # of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases % change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures
Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted
1.0% N/A 1.1%
Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted
2.2% 90 2.2%
Year-over-year 6.4% 91 6.1%

Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

Price Gains Aren’t Slowing Everywhere

Nationally, year-over-year price gains have slowed from a year ago. In some markets, this price slowdown has been precipitous. In the most extreme case, Las Vegas prices rose 10.1% in October 2014 versus 31.9% in October 2013, a drop of 21.8 percentage points. Price gains have slowed by almost 20 percentage points in both Northern California (Sacramento, Oakland) and Southern California (RiversideSan Bernardino, San Diego) markets. Among the 10 markets with the largest price slowdowns, only one – WarrenTroyFarmington Hills, next to Detroit – is outside California or the Southwest.

Nationally, price gains have slowed in 60 of the 100 largest metros, although prices are actually falling year-over-year in only nine metros.

Where Price Gains Have Slowed Most
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % asking price change, Oct 2014 Y-o-Y % asking price change, Oct 2013 Difference in price change, Oct 2014 vs Oct 2013, percentage points
1 Las Vegas, NV 10.1% 31.9% -21.8%
2 Sacramento, CA 10.0% 29.8% -19.9%
3 RiversideSan Bernardino, CA 9.1% 28.4% -19.3%
4 San Diego, CA 2.0% 21.0% -19.0%
5 Oakland, CA 11.3% 29.9% -18.6%
6 Bakersfield, CA 6.8% 24.6% -17.8%
7 Orange County, CA 5.1% 21.5% -16.4%
8 Los Angeles, CA 6.0% 22.0% -16.0%
9 WarrenTroyFarmington Hills, MI 8.3% 22.6% -14.3%
10 Phoenix, AZ 4.2% 18.4% -14.2%
Note: among 100 largest metros. Differences in price gains were calculated before rounding. To download the list of asking home price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF

Where then are the 40 metros where prices have accelerated? They’re concentrated in the Midwest and the South. Prices gains have accelerated most in Dayton, Louisville, and Akron. However, the speed-ups aren’t as dramatic as the slowdowns. In no metro have prices accelerated by more than 10 percentage points. Dayton comes closest at 9.1 percentage points. By contrast, prices have slowed by more than 10 percentage points in 12 metros, including Orlando and Fort Lauderdale in addition to the 10 listed above.

Where Price Gains Have Accelerated Most
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % asking price change, Oct 2014 Y-o-Y % asking price change, Oct 2013 Difference in price change, Oct 2014 vs Oct 2013, percentage points
1 Dayton, OH 8.9% -0.2% 9.1%
2 Louisville, KY-IN 10.7% 2.1% 8.6%
3 Akron, OH 5.9% -0.7% 6.5%
4 Palm BayMelbourneTitusville, FL 13.5% 7.9% 5.6%
5 Toledo, OH 9.2% 3.9% 5.3%
6 Gary, IN 8.3% 3.1% 5.1%
7 Tulsa, OK 7.8% 2.9% 4.9%
8 Pittsburgh, PA 5.7% 1.0% 4.7%
9 Virginia BeachNorfolk, VA-NC 5.1% 0.7% 4.4%
10 Syracuse, NY 4.5% 0.4% 4.1%
Note: among 100 largest metros. Differences in price gains were calculated before rounding. To download the list of asking home price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF

Thus, the price deceleration is very pronounced in some markets, but by no means universal. In fact, the slowdown represents continued fallout from the housing crisis. Metros where the past decade’s housing crisis was especially severe (see note) experienced huge price rebounds last year, rates of increase that couldn’t be sustained. On average, these severely hit markets notched almost 20% price gains year-over-year in October 2013, compared with 7.9% in October 2014. Things that can’t last forever, don’t. And double-digit home-price increases are a prime example of something that can’t last forever. By contrast, markets that had a moderate housing bust experienced a gentler rebound in 2013 and slowdown in 2014. Markets that had only a mild housing bust have seen year-over-year price gains ease back just slightly, from 6.8% in October 2013 to 6.2% in October 2014.

Still, even with the sharp price slowdown in the severely hit markets, in October 2014 asking prices still rose more year-over-year in markets where the housing bust was severe than in moderate or mild markets.

HousingBustGraph

Rents Rising Fast in the Least Affordable Rental Markets

Nationally, rents rose 6.2% year-over-year in October. But in the markets where renters are stretched thinnest, rents are rising even faster. In Miami, Los Angeles, and New York, the median rent on a 2-bedroom unit equals more than half of the average monthly wage, and it’s nearly that much in Oakland and San Francisco. In all five of these least-affordable markets, rents rose 7.8% or more year-over-year. The rental affordability crisis is getting worse in the markets where it’s already bad – and that may hold until apartment construction brings more units onto the market.

 

Rent Trends in the 25 Largest Rental Markets
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % change in rents, Oct 2014 Median rent for 2-bedroom, Oct 2014 Median rent for 2-bedroom, as share of average local wage
1 Miami, FL 7.8% 2400 61%
2 Los Angeles, CA 8.3% 2550 56%
3 New York, NY-NJ 7.8% 3450 55%
4 Oakland, CA 13.3% 2550 49%
5 San Francisco, CA 14.4% 3600 49%
6 RiversideSan Bernardino, CA 6.1% 1550 46%
7 Orange County, CA 6.8% 2100 46%
8 San Diego, CA 5.3% 2000 44%
9 Boston, MA 4.2% 2300 40%
10 Chicago, IL 5.9% 1700 37%
11 Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV 4.0% 2050 35%
12 Baltimore, MD 8.4% 1550 35%
13 Denver, CO 14.3% 1550 33%
14 Philadelphia, PA 7.7% 1600 33%
15 Seattle, WA 8.5% 1750 32%
16 TampaSt. Petersburg, FL 6.6% 1150 31%
17 Portland, OR-WA 5.9% 1300 31%
18 Dallas, TX 5.7% 1400 29%
19 Houston, TX 4.9% 1500 29%
20 Sacramento, CA 9.6% 1250 29%
21 Atlanta, GA 6.1% 1250 28%
22 MinneapolisSt. Paul, MN-WI 0.6% 1300 28%
23 Las Vegas, NV 5.8% 1000 28%
24 Phoenix, AZ 8.2% 1050 26%
25 St. Louis, MO-IL 5.9% 950 24%
Note: average local wage is from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for full-year 2013.

 

The next Trulia Price Monitor and Trulia Rent Monitor will be released on Tuesday, December 9.

The severity of the housing crisis for each metro is based on peak-to-trough price declines in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s home price index.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor track asking home prices and rents on a monthly basis, adjusting for the changing composition of listed homes, including foreclosures provided by RealtyTrac. The Trulia Price Monitor also accounts for regular seasonal fluctuations in asking prices in order to reveal underlying price trends. The Monitors can detect price movements at least three months before the major sales-price indexes. Historical data are revised monthly. Thus, historical data presented in the current release are the best comparison with current data. Our FAQs provide the technical details.

0 comments