Real Estate Data for the Rest of Us

articles about “Gayborhoods

Gayborhood Watch: How Home Prices Have Changed in America’s Gayest Neighborhoods

Of the gayest neighborhoods in America, most are more expensive than other neighborhoods in their metro area, but some have grown even more expensive than others.

Three years ago, we explored how the housing market fared in the gayest neighborhoods across the country. One of the most interesting findings from that report was that gay men tended to live in more expensive ZIP codes than gay women, even when looking at ZIPs within the same metro. In honor of Gay Pride this year, we wanted to revisit these neighborhoods and find out what’s changed since 2012.

To do this, we calculated the share of households that are same-sex male couples and same-sex female couples in every ZIP code in America using the 2010 Census (see note below on how we did this). Focusing on just the top 10 ZIPs with the highest concentration of same-sex male and same-sex female couples, we then calculated the median price per foot of homes for sale in each ZIP code on Trulia as of June 1, 2015 and compared it to June 1, 2012 to find out how prices have changed, both over time and relative to their metropolitan area.

Home Prices Higher and Growing Faster Where Gay Men Live
In June of 2012, homes in gay men neighborhoods cost $188 per square foot, which is $55 more expensive than in gay women neighborhoods. Since then, gay men neighborhoods have gone on a tear – becoming $81 per square foot more expensive.

Over the last three years, home prices in gay men neighborhoods have grown by an average of 23%. Of course, this figures mask changes in individual neighborhoods, so here’s a look at where prices have risen the most.

Trulia_GayNeighborhoodPrices

Where Gay Men Neighborhoods Are Getting More Expensive

# ZIP Code Median Price Per Foot, Jun 2012 Median Price Per Foot, Jun 2015 % Change Price Per Foot, Jun 2012-Jun 2015
1 92262Palm Springs, CA $158 $260 65%
2 94131Noe Valley / Glen Park / Diamond Heights, San Francisco, CA $522 $768 47%
3 92264Palm Springs, CA $174 $240 38%
4 48069Pleasant Ridge, suburban Detroit, MI $137 $188 37%
5 94114Castro, San Francisco, CA $699 $948 36%
6 90069West HollywoodLos Angeles, CA $611 $802 31%
7 75219Oak Lawn, Dallas, TX $185 $225 22%
8 33305Wilton ManorsFort Lauderdale, FL $249 $292 17%
9 19971Rehoboth Beach, DE $193 $203 5%
10 02657ProvincetownCape Cod, MA $604 $616 2%
Average for all Gay Men Neighborhoods $188 $238 23%
Note: Only zip codes with at least 1000 persons are included in the analysis. Average growth rate is weighted by number of gay households, so the listed percentage increase is different than the simple percentage change between average price per foot in 2012 and 2015. Data in this report are different from our report in June 2012 because of new MSA definitions and observed time period of listings (month vs. previous year in the June 2012 report)

Trulia_LesbianNeighborhoodPrices

 Where Gay Women Neighborhoods Are Getting More Expensive
# ZIP Code Median Price Per Foot, June 2012 Median Price Per Foot, June 2015 % Change Price Per Foot, June 2012-June 2015
1 94619Redwood Heights / Skyline, Oakland, CA $237 $389 64%
2 30002Avondale Estates, suburban Atlanta, GA $114 $173 52%
3 02130Jamaica Plain, Boston, MA $303 $414 37%
4 94114Castro, San Francisco, CA $699 $948 36%
5 95446Guerneville, north of San Francisco, CA $270 $335 24%
6 01060Northampton, MA $197 $216 10%
7 19971Rehoboth Beach, DE $193 $203 5%
8 01062Northampton, MA $190 $196 3%
9 02657ProvincetownCape Cod, MA $604 $616 2%
10 02667WellfleetCape Cod, MA $326 $323 -1%
Average for all gay women neighborhoods $133 $157 18%
Note: Only zip codes with at least 1000 persons are included in the analysis. Average growth rate is weighted by number of gay households, so the listed percentage increase is different than the simple percentage change between average price per foot in 2012 and 2015. Data in this report are different from our report in June 2012 because of new MSA definitions and observed time period of listings (month vs. previous year in the June 2012 report)

 

Home Price Growth Outpaces Metro Area Where Gay Women Live
Several gayborhoods are located in expensive metros that have also experienced sharp price gains in the last few years, such as San Francisco and Boston. So it could be that rising home prices in these neighborhoods are driven by price changes in their respective housing market, rather than the demand to live in gayborhoods themselves. To tease out these neighborhood-level effects, we’ve compared prices in these gayborhoods with their respective metro areas.

As it turns out, home prices in almost all of the gayborhoods that we look at in this study are more expensive than their metros as a whole. For example, homes in the Castro neighborhood of San Francisco cost $948 per square foot – which is 34% more expensive than the San Francisco metro area ($705 per square foot), while places like West Hollywood, CA and Provincetown, MA are 123% and 119% more expensive, respectively. The only gayborhood that isn’t more expensive than its respective metro is Guerneville, north of San Francisco, CA, which is only 2% cheaper per square foot than its metro area.

Home Prices in Gay Men Neighborhoods vs. Wider Metro Area

# ZIP Code Median Price Per Foot,Jun 2015 Median Price Per Foot of Metro,Jun 2015 Gayborhood Premium, Jun 2015 Difference in Price Per Foot Growth Relative to Metro, Jun 2012 – Jun 2015
1 92262Palm Springs, CA $260 $173 50% 13% points
2 19971Rehoboth Beach, DE $203 $153 33% 5% points
3 94131Noe Valley / Glen Park / Diamond Heights, San Francisco, CA $768 $705 9% -1% points
4 48069Pleasant Ridge, suburban Detroit, MI $188 $122 54% -6% points
5 33305Wilton ManorsFort Lauderdale, FL $292 $158 85% -10% points
6 92264Palm Springs, CA $240 $173 39% -12% points
7 75219Oak Lawn, Dallas, TX $225 $119 89% -12% points
8 94114Castro,
San Francisco, CA
$948 $705 34% -13% points
9 02657ProvincetownCape Cod, MA $616 $281 119% -19% points
10 90069West HollywoodLos Angeles, CA $802 $360 123% -26% points

Interestingly, when we compare price growth in these neighborhoods to their metro area, gay women neighborhoods have outperformed their gay men neighborhood counterparts. Even though neighborhoods with the most gay men are more expensive, a larger number of gay women neighborhoods (six) have outpaced their metro areas than gay men neighborhoods (two). And not only have prices in more gay women neighborhoods grown faster than their metro, they have grown by a larger amount.

For example, prices in gay women neighborhoods like Avondale Estates in Atlanta, Jamaica Plain in Boston, and Northampton in West Massachusetts have grown 35%, 28%, and 11% points faster than their metro area. On the other hand, the top two fastest growing gay men neighborhoods have only grown 13% (Palm Springs, CA) and 5% (Rehoboth Beach, DE) points faster than their metro, and the third (Noe Valley / Glen Park / Diamond Heights, San Francisco, CA) actually lost one percentage point.

Home Prices in Gay Women Neighborhoods vs. Wider Metro Area

# ZIP Code Median Price Per Foot,Jun 2015 Median Price Per Foot of Metro,Jun 2015 Gayborhood Premium, Jun 2015 Difference in Price Per Foot Growth Relative to Metro,Jun 2012-Jun 2015
1 30002Avondale Estates, suburban Atlanta, GA $173 $96 80% 35% points
2 02130Jamaica Plain, Boston, MA $414 $243 70% 28% points
3 01060Northampton, MA $216 $140 55% 11% points
4 94619Redwood Heights /Skyline, Oakland, CA $389 $373 4% 7% points
5 19971Rehoboth Beach, DE $203 $153 33% 5% points
6 01062Northampton, MA $196 $140 41% 1% points
7 94114Castro,
San Francisco, CA
$948 $705 34% -13% points
8 02667Wellfleet,
Cape Cod, MA
$323 $281 15% -13% points
9 95446Guerneville,north of San Francisco, CA $335 $341 -2% -18% points
10 02657Provincetown,
Cape Cod, MA
$616 $281 119% -19% points

So why the discrepancy in price growth between same-sex male and female neighborhoods? A couple of reasons. First, the top gay men neighborhoods are places where prices were already high relative to their metros, and thus were not hit as hard during the housing crash as other less expensive neighborhoods within their respective metros. Second, gay women couples are 2.4X as likely to have children than gay men couples, so it could be that gay women seek up-and-coming neighborhoods with good schools to raise their children. Nonetheless, all of these neighborhoods are likely to be full of pride during the month of June, and not just because of strong price gains.

(The fine print: The Census doesn’t ask sexual orientation, of course, so the only way to measure gay neighborhoods is based on where couples live. The Census data requires some corrections and adjustments, described here. Finally, ZIP codes don’t line up perfectly with neighborhoods, but we did our best to use the closest neighborhood names that correspond to the ZIP codes in our analysis.)

0 comments

Home Prices Rising Faster in Cities than in the Suburbs – Most of All in Gayborhoods

The suburbs may have faster population growth, but urban neighborhoods have faster home-price growth nationally and in 16 of the 20 Case-Shiller metros. Furthermore, home prices are climbing most steeply in high-rise neighborhoods and areas with large gay and lesbian populations.

Home prices have been climbing nationally for more than a year. The Trulia Price Monitor, Case-Shiller, and other price indexes show price gains for nearly all large metro areas. But within a metro, the city and the suburbs are often totally different housing markets.  In last decade’s housing bubble and bust, most of the overbuilding and foreclosures happened in the suburbs and outlying areas, but many downtowns are dotted with vacant buildings or even vacant blocks. Which areas are seeing a stronger recovery – cities or suburbs?

To answer this, we looked at (1) price gains, based on the change in median price per square foot among all non-foreclosure homes for sale on Trulia, and (2) population growth, based on the U.S. Postal Service’s count of occupied households in each ZIP code. Both measures are year-over-year, with prices through the end of May 2013 and population through mid-June 2013. We classify urban and suburban neighborhoods based on the kind of housing they have – urban neighborhoods are mostly condos, apartments, and townhouses, while suburbs have mostly detached, single-family homes – which we think is more accurate than using big-city boundaries (see note).

Urban Neighborhoods Have Stronger Price Recovery, but Slower Population Growth
Here’s the punch line: urban neighborhoods had faster price growth in the past year, while suburban neighborhoods had higher population growth. The median asking price per square foot was up 11.3% in urban neighborhoods, versus 10.2% in suburban neighborhoods.  (The overall national increase, including urban and suburban neighborhoods, was 10.5%.) But despite faster price growth in cities (by williams here), the suburbs are where people are moving: suburban neighborhoods had faster population growth than urban neighborhoods did, 0.56% versus 0.31%.

Change in home prices, Y-o-Y Change in population, Y-o-Y
Urban neighborhoods

11.3%

0.31%

Suburban neighborhoods

10.2%

0.56%

But shouldn’t price gains and population growth go hand-in-hand? Not necessarily: there’s more room to build new housing for a growing population in sprawling suburbs than in dense urban areas, so suburbs can more easily accommodate growth with new construction. In contrast, the more people want to live in dense, urban neighborhoods, the more they bid up the price of existing homes. Even with the recent rebound in construction of urban multifamily buildings, most new housing is still in the suburbs.

… continue reading

0 comments

Welcome to the Gayborhood

From Provincetown to the Castro, gay men and women have made neighborhoods their own. Many are pricey, but we’ve found some affordable neighborhoods where you can be out and proud.

In honor of Gay Pride month, when New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and many others cities across the country hold their annual parades, we wanted to find the gayest neighborhoods across America. No surprise that San Francisco’s Castro neighborhood is at the top of the list, but throughout the country there are suburban and small-town neighborhoods with high concentrations of gay people. Even in the big, expensive cities, it’s possible to find a gay community without spending a fortune. And the picture looks different for gay men and women, who often cluster in very different neighborhoods even in the same metro.

Here’s what we did. For each ZIP code in the U.S., we calculated the share of households that are same-sex male couples and same-sex female couples, based on the 2010 Census. Then, we combined the Census data on where gay people live with median price per foot of listed homes in each ZIP code on Trulia over the past year.

(The fine print: The Census doesn’t ask sexual orientation, of course, so the only way to measure gay neighborhoods is based on where couples live. The Census data requires some corrections and adjustments, described here. Finally, ZIP codes don’t line up perfectly with neighborhoods, but we did our best to use the closest neighborhood names that correspond to the ZIP codes in our analysis.)

… continue reading

0 comments