The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Asking Prices Rise 2.9% Nationally, Biggest Year-over-Year Increase to Date
In October, asking prices rose 0.7% month-over-month, for a 2.9% year-over-year increase – the biggest yearly gain in the Trulia Price Monitor to date. More than two thirds of large metros – 69 out of 100 – had year-over-year price increases. The month-over-month and quarter-over-quarter price increases are larger when foreclosures are included than when they’re excluded – which means foreclosure prices are now rising faster than prices on non-distressed homes.

October 2012 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

% change in asking prices

# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases

% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted

0.7%

(not reported)

0.5%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

1.8%

76

1.4%

Year-over-year

2.9%

69

3.6%

Asking Prices are Rising Fastest in Phoenix, Dropping Most in Chicago
Prices are galloping ahead 24.9% year-over-year in Phoenix, by far the strongest price rebound in the country. The ten metros with the strongest price increases include markets bouncing back from big post-bubble price declines, including Phoenix, Las Vegas, Cape CoralFort Myers, West Palm Beach, and Detroit and the suburban Warren, MI area. The other four markets with strong price gains – San Jose, Denver, San Francisco, and Oakland – have all had strong job growth in the past year, which boosts housing demand.

Metros with Largest Year-over-Year Asking Price Increases

# U.S. Metro

Y-o-Y % change in asking prices,
Oct 2012

1

Phoenix, AZ

24.9%

2

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

15.7%

3

San Jose, CA

12.7%

4

Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI

11.8%

5

West Palm Beach, FL

11.3%

6

Las Vegas, NV

10.9%

7

Denver, CO

10.1%

8

Detroit, MI

9.8%

9

Oakland, CA

8.8%

10

San Francisco, CA

8.7%

*Among the 100 largest metro areas.

At the other extreme, prices have fallen year-over-year by 5.3% in Chicago. Most of the metros with the largest price declines are in the Midwest and the Northeast, including Philadelphia and nearby New Jersey metros. Foreclosures are weighing down on prices in many of these markets. While rebounding Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Detroit have completed most of their foreclosures, Philadelphia, Chicago, Albuquerque, and the New Jersey metros are halfway or less through their foreclosure crises.

Metros with Largest Year-over-Year Asking Price Decreases

# U.S. Metro

Y-o-Y % change in asking prices,
Oct 2012

1 Chicago, IL

-5.3%

2 Camden, NJ

-4.4%

3 Gary, IN

-3.5%

4 Edison-New Brunswick, NJ

-3.5%

5 Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI

-3.5%

6 Greenville, SC

-3.3%

7 New Haven, CT

-3.3%

8 Allentown, PA-NJ

-3.0%

9 Philadelphia, PA

-2.9%

10 Albuquerque, NM

-2.2%

*Among the 100 largest metro areas.

Rents Up 5.1% Year-over-Year – and Rising Even in Markets Where Prices are Falling
Rents have increased year-over-year in 24 of the 25 largest rental markets – all except Las Vegas. Rents are rising alongside big price gains in Oakland, Denver, and San Francisco; people looking for a home in these markets will find bargains disappearing whether they’re looking to rent or own. But rents are also rising sharply in Chicago and Philadelphia, despite falling for-sale prices. In these markets, falling prices and rising rents combine to making owning increasingly affordable relative to renting. On the flip side, rents are falling in Las Vegas despite for-sale price gains of 10.9%, and Phoenix rents are rising by just 2.0%, compared with a 24.9% leap in prices. Accordingly, in Las Vegas and Phoenix, rental affordability is improving relative to owning.

Metros with Largest Year-over-Year Asking Rent Increases

# U.S. Metro

% change in rents, Y-o-Y,
Oct 2012

1 Houston, TX

16.5%

2 Miami, FL

10.0%

3 Oakland, CA

10.0%

4 Denver, CO

9.4%

5 Seattle, WA

8.8%

6 Philadelphia, PA

8.6%

7 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI

8.5%

8 Chicago, IL

7.7%

9 New York, NY-NJ

6.1%

10 San Francisco, CA

6.0%

*Among the 25 largest rental markets.

Final Election Round-Up: Prices Up Year-over-Year in Eight of Eleven Swing States
The presidential candidates may not be talking about housing – but that’s partly because prices are rebounding. If home prices in swing states weren’t rising as much as they are, we’d be hearing a lot more about the housing market from the candidates.

 

Looking at the swing states, prices are up year-over-year in eight of the eleven states that could still go either way in tomorrow’s presidential election. Among the five swing states with the most electoral votes, three (Florida, Ohio, and Michigan) saw year-over-year price gains and two (Pennsylvania and North Carolina) saw price declines. The two swing states that suffered the most housing misery during the bust have both had strong price rebounds in the past year, with prices up 10.3% in Nevada and 5.8% in Florida.

Swing states*

Y-o-Y % change in asking prices,
Oct 2012

Electoral votes

Florida

5.8%

29

Pennsylvania

-2.3%

20

Ohio

2.3%

18

Michigan

7.6%

16

North Carolina

-1.5%

15

Virginia

0.7%

13

Wisconsin

0.3%

10

Colorado

6.8%

9

Iowa

3.2%

6

Nevada

10.3%

6

New Hampshire

-0.4%

4

* as categorized by Real Clear Politics, as of Friday morning November 2.

How does the housing market now compare with the market when Obama became President? Home prices at the end of 2012 should be 1.1% below the level when he took office in January 2009. Here’s why: according to the latest Case-Shiller data, sales prices fell 3.3% between January 2009 and August 2012. Looking forward, the Trulia Price Monitor shows that sales prices should rise another 2.3% from August to December because asking prices rose by that amount from June to October and tend to lead sales prices by two months. Altogether, we expect the overall change in housing prices from January 2009 to the end of Obama’s term to be -1.1%.

The next Trulia Price Monitor and Trulia Rent Monitor will be released on Tuesday, December 4, at 10 AM ET.

How did we put this report together? To recap the methodology, the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor track asking home prices and rents on a monthly basis, adjusting for the changing composition of listed homes, including foreclosures provided by RealtyTrac. The Trulia Price Monitor also accounts for the regular seasonal fluctuations in asking prices in order to reveal the underlying trend in prices. The Monitors can detect price movements at least three months before the major sales-price indexes do. Our FAQs provide all the technical details.