I wouldn't count on the deal falling through. I don't know anyone that has numbers on how many deals fall through because of the appraisal or loan issues. There are some deals that fall through, but the chances that the one you want will fall through is slim.
If you are counting on the first time buyer credit, I wouldn't waste time waiting to see what will happen with this house. You will also need to avoid short sales because most take months to close. Bank owned properties can also take time, and you won't have the leverage with a bank to force them to move quickly as you would with a private owner.
Your best best is to look for homes and plan on paying 3-6% off list price. If you are trying to get sellers to come down much more, the chances are high that you will not be able to agree on a price. - Mon Sep 21 2009, 13:41