Your best methodology for accurately determining when home values will begin to "increase" in ANY location in Arizona would begin at looking into the National and Global economy landscape. The fact of the matter is that nationwide, most areas have been hit by a "declining market" factor, that was largely due to the "over-exuberance" in the real estate markets of 2003 - 2005...at least here in "The Old Pueblo" and its surrounding communities.
All that said, it truly is anyone's guess exactly how long it will take for the pendulum to swing back completely in Tucson and in all areas, communities and subdivisions. I think it is safe to say that the market is moving better than it has been since the end of 2005, but as long as the inventory stays at its current levels, supply and demand will dictate that it could be as far out as 2 or more years. As in the case of any investment, hold your investment until it matures; 3 to 5 years is almost an industry standard in any investment. Long term, you will be just fine and you will see a solid Return On Investment (ROI) in an ever-growing Tucson Metropolis.
'Hope this helped! - Sun Feb 24 2008, 23:19