I would just like to acknowledge the last entry"Realestate#1". First of all, are you afraid to use your name? I don't understand why there are so many people(and I am seeing it alot) that have nothing better to do with thier time than to try to stir up controversy. I want to remark on your comment. In all of the blogs I have read and posted, I don't recall anyone ever saying that we are at rock bottom, that prices will never go a penny lower, and that tomorrow they will shoot up through the roof.
However, I have read and posted, that it is a good time to buy, which it is. Merely a fact. I don't know why you don't seem to get that.
Your response is like going to the doctor and him telling you that he is pretty sure you have cancer, and you should probably get treatment, and you telling him that that you don't think it is at its worst yet, so you are going to wait for treatment.
We are proffessionalls that live and breathe in what is going on. And yes things are different in different regions, but I would like to ask you this.
What are the factors that you feel determines the time to buy?
Is it when there is more supply than we have ever seen in our lifetime?
Is it when interest rates are lower than have ever been documented?
Is it when sellers are doing everything they can to get rid of their homes, including dropping the prices so low they are losing money, and it is way below appraised value?
Is it when the government is giving you money to buy?
Well, I can't imagine those not being good signs, so I am saying it's a great time. I forgot my crystal ball at home though, so I can't tell you what will happen tomorrow. But maybe your cancer will be better tomorrow and you will be soooo glad you didn't get that treatment.
Rodney Monk - Mon Apr 13 2009, 09:00
Dino,
In some areas you have seen more of an appreciation than others. We are talking broad brush about Austin though. Austin is like any other city in the country, where there are areas that do much better than others. There are several areas in Austin that are selling faster than almost anywhere in the country. Then you have others that are slower. For instance area 10S has an average of only 45 days on the market (WOW!). Yet downtown, which is an area most people would consider is doing well, is selling at an average of 119. And yes, it is possible some areas tripled in price, however this is not the norm throughout Austin. This is one reason why Austin is doing so well, we have had the average moderate appreciation in most areas. In turn others are seeing that this is a great place to be, and are coming by the droves. On top of that our job market is phenomenal. Add it all up, and yes this is a good market, and great place to buy. - Thu Sep 18 2008, 13:05
Hey Paul,
I thought you might appreciate having this article recently published by Inman News. It gives a historical overview of the Austin real estate market over the last 8-10 years and what factors make the future of real estate in Austin continue to look so bright.
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It's Back to the Future for Austin Real Estate!
Inman News
The serious downturn in housing sales in many parts of the country is well known. This downturn was preceded by a strong escalation in home prices. In many areas, prices rose beyond levels that were supported by local salaries and income. The driving force that fueled the growth in home prices was the availability of money. The easy availability of home buying money allowed the demand side of the market to build.
When buyers could expect 10%-30% appreciation and get 6% interest rates, who would not be motivated to buy? It's a no-brainer, right? Right. But, high demand leads to higher prices. And, high demand leads to more inventory, as builders respond to the need for homes.
The sources of money for mortgages came from new and unregulated sources. Prior to this, government regulated entities, such as Fannie Mae, were the main buyers of mortgages from lenders. Then, new Wall Street investors entered the market for buying real estate loans.
Alternative loans, interest-only loans, 100% loans, creative ARM's, no-documentation, and other high risk products became commonplace. Some of these loans began with a low interest rate that the borrower barely qualified for, and then switched to a higher rate after a short time. In many cases, the borrowers did not understand the risk that they were taking.
For most of my experience in real estate, buyers were limited to 80-90% loans, with 28% of their income allowed for mortgage payment, and their income was fully documented. When we began to see 100% financing on contracts, we were concerned by the buyer's lack of personal investment, or skin in the game, as they say. Loans such as these have an underlying expectation that the value of the home will increase quickly, and the buyers will be covered, if they need to sell.
Sub-prime, alternative, or high risk loans are not limited to low income buyers, and are not always predatory. Often, very sophisticated buyers elected to keep their cash and leverage more. On a large scale, the easy availability of money, through higher risk loans, fueled the growth of home ownership and investment in rental real estate. The demand for homes raised prices, and then raised inventories, as builders supplied more homes. Then the cycle was broken.
What caused the break? Foreclosures began to show up. Investors who bought mortgage backed securities realized that they contained more risk than they expected, and stopped buying them. Lenders lost the market for selling many of their loans. When home buying money dried up, demand for homes slowed down, and prices began to fall in many parts of the country.
Of course, real estate markets are local. Many areas will survive this much better. Fortunately, Austin is one of those areas. To be sure, we are experiencing the effects of the reduction in demand for homes, but it is not devastating. Why?
First, the Austin market has not had double digit appreciation during the past few years. During the years from 2001 to 2004, after the Dot.com bust, the market in Austin was somewhat soft. The median price rose by about 3.5% per year, on average.
From 2005 through 2007 our market tightened up, and we began to see very low inventory and strong demand, especially in the central areas. Throughout Austin, especially in suburban areas, builders produced inventory to keep up with demand. Overall, appreciation in Austin has been steady, but reasonable. Home prices have not risen excessively, and are not falling precipitously. Austin home prices are still in line with local salaries.
Second, the real estate market always reflects the job market. Approximately 20,000 new jobs were added during the past year. Our unemployment level is about 3.5%, a level that some would consider full employment. Retail outlets are opening at a fast clip-a result of widespread employment. New jobs are being created as companies move here and Austin companies expand. Jobs bring in people, and people buy homes.
It is true that the "new" restrictions on obtaining a mortgage will have a slowing effect on the Austin market. For the next year, we will see a more balanced market than we experienced in 2006 and 2007. Sellers will have to consider the fundamentals to attract a buyer. They will need competitive pricing, excellent presentation, and top level marketing. Buyers will have to have a down payment, good credit, and proper income for their loan.
So, it's back to the future for the Austin real estate market.
Let me know if you have any questions - Thu Sep 18 2008, 11:57
Hey Paul,
Well for starters, right now is a great time to buy. There are record #'s of homes to choose from, and prices are great!!! As far as getting the cold feet, I can understand that, but buying a home is always a good investment, since you have to live somewhere, might as well be somewhere that you can get money back from one day. $7000 is a good # to judge from for down and closing. It is very common for sellers to contribute to closing costs/downpayments. Especiallly right now when sellers are a little more desperate to do what it takes to sell. FHA loans are changing alot right now, so it is important to get prequalified first, and get the real story up front. There are several downpayment assistance programs available right now, but will be going away after October 1st. If you have any other questions, feel free to contact me, and I would be glad to help you with them. - Fri Aug 29 2008, 09:12