Asking prices are rising more slowly now than a year ago. The price slowdown in especially sharp in California and the Southwest. Nevertheless, in 40 of the 100 largest markets, price gains have accelerated.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of housing price and rent trends nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months. As a result, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed. 

Asking Prices Rose 6.4% Year-over-Year in October

Nationally, the month-over-month increase in asking home prices rose to 1.0% in October. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 6.4%, down from the 10.6% year-over-year increase in October 2013. Asking prices rose year-over-year in 91 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.

October 2014 Trulia Price Monitor Summary
% change in asking prices # of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases % change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures
Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted 1.0% N/A 1.1%
Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted 2.2% 90 2.2%
Year-over-year 6.4% 91 6.1%
Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

Price Gains Aren’t Slowing Everywhere

Nationally, year-over-year price gains have slowed from a year ago. In some markets, this price slowdown has been precipitous. In the most extreme case, Las Vegas prices rose 10.1% in October 2014 versus 31.9% in October 2013, a drop of 21.8 percentage points. Price gains have slowed by almost 20 percentage points in both Northern California (Sacramento, Oakland) and Southern California (RiversideSan Bernardino, San Diego) markets. Among the 10 markets with the largest price slowdowns, only one – WarrenTroyFarmington Hills, next to Detroit – is outside California or the Southwest.

Nationally, price gains have slowed in 60 of the 100 largest metros, although prices are actually falling year-over-year in only nine metros.

Where Price Gains Have Slowed Most
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % asking price change, Oct 2014 Y-o-Y % asking price change, Oct 2013 Difference in price change, Oct 2014 vs Oct 2013, percentage points
1 Las Vegas, NV 10.1% 31.9% -21.8%
2 Sacramento, CA 10.0% 29.8% -19.9%
3 RiversideSan Bernardino, CA 9.1% 28.4% -19.3%
4 San Diego, CA 2.0% 21.0% -19.0%
5 Oakland, CA 11.3% 29.9% -18.6%
6 Bakersfield, CA 6.8% 24.6% -17.8%
7 Orange County, CA 5.1% 21.5% -16.4%
8 Los Angeles, CA 6.0% 22.0% -16.0%
9 WarrenTroyFarmington Hills, MI 8.3% 22.6% -14.3%
10 Phoenix, AZ 4.2% 18.4% -14.2%
Note: among 100 largest metros. Differences in price gains were calculated before rounding. To download the list of asking home price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF

Where then are the 40 metros where prices have accelerated? They’re concentrated in the Midwest and the South. Prices gains have accelerated most in Dayton, Louisville, and Akron. However, the speed-ups aren’t as dramatic as the slowdowns. In no metro have prices accelerated by more than 10 percentage points. Dayton comes closest at 9.1 percentage points. By contrast, prices have slowed by more than 10 percentage points in 12 metros, including Orlando and Fort Lauderdale in addition to the 10 listed above.

Where Price Gains Have Accelerated Most
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % asking price change, Oct 2014 Y-o-Y % asking price change, Oct 2013 Difference in price change, Oct 2014 vs Oct 2013, percentage points
1 Dayton, OH 8.9% -0.2% 9.1%
2 Louisville, KY-IN 10.7% 2.1% 8.6%
3 Akron, OH 5.9% -0.7% 6.5%
4 Palm BayMelbourneTitusville, FL 13.5% 7.9% 5.6%
5 Toledo, OH 9.2% 3.9% 5.3%
6 Gary, IN 8.3% 3.1% 5.1%
7 Tulsa, OK 7.8% 2.9% 4.9%
8 Pittsburgh, PA 5.7% 1.0% 4.7%
9 Virginia BeachNorfolk, VA-NC 5.1% 0.7% 4.4%
10 Syracuse, NY 4.5% 0.4% 4.1%
Note: among 100 largest metros. Differences in price gains were calculated before rounding. To download the list of asking home price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF

Thus, the price deceleration is very pronounced in some markets, but by no means universal. In fact, the slowdown represents continued fallout from the housing crisis. Metros where the past decade’s housing crisis was especially severe (see note) experienced huge price rebounds last year, rates of increase that couldn’t be sustained. On average, these severely hit markets notched almost 20% price gains year-over-year in October 2013, compared with 7.9% in October 2014. Things that can’t last forever, don’t. And double-digit home-price increases are a prime example of something that can’t last forever. By contrast, markets that had a moderate housing bust experienced a gentler rebound in 2013 and slowdown in 2014. Markets that had only a mild housing bust have seen year-over-year price gains ease back just slightly, from 6.8% in October 2013 to 6.2% in October 2014.

Still, even with the sharp price slowdown in the severely hit markets, in October 2014 asking prices still rose more year-over-year in markets where the housing bust was severe than in moderate or mild markets.

HousingBustGraph

Rents Rising Fast in the Least Affordable Rental Markets

Nationally, rents rose 6.2% year-over-year in October. But in the markets where renters are stretched thinnest, rents are rising even faster. In Miami, Los Angeles, and New York, the median rent on a 2-bedroom unit equals more than half of the average monthly wage, and it’s nearly that much in Oakland and San Francisco. In all five of these least-affordable markets, rents rose 7.8% or more year-over-year. The rental affordability crisis is getting worse in the markets where it’s already bad – and that may hold until apartment construction brings more units onto the market.

Rent Trends in the 25 Largest Rental Markets
# U.S. Metro Y-o-Y % change in rents, Oct 2014 Median rent for 2-bedroom, Oct 2014 Median rent for 2-bedroom, as share of average local wage
1 Miami, FL 7.8% 2400 61%
2 Los Angeles, CA 8.3% 2550 56%
3 New York, NY-NJ 7.8% 3450 55%
4 Oakland, CA 13.3% 2550 49%
5 San Francisco, CA 14.4% 3600 49%
6 RiversideSan Bernardino, CA 6.1% 1550 46%
7 Orange County, CA 6.8% 2100 46%
8 San Diego, CA 5.3% 2000 44%
9 Boston, MA 4.2% 2300 40%
10 Chicago, IL 5.9% 1700 37%
11 Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV 4.0% 2050 35%
12 Baltimore, MD 8.4% 1550 35%
13 Denver, CO 14.3% 1550 33%
14 Philadelphia, PA 7.7% 1600 33%
15 Seattle, WA 8.5% 1750 32%
16 TampaSt. Petersburg, FL 6.6% 1150 31%
17 Portland, OR-WA 5.9% 1300 31%
18 Dallas, TX 5.7% 1400 29%
19 Houston, TX 4.9% 1500 29%
20 Sacramento, CA 9.6% 1250 29%
21 Atlanta, GA 6.1% 1250 28%
22 MinneapolisSt. Paul, MN-WI 0.6% 1300 28%
23 Las Vegas, NV 5.8% 1000 28%
24 Phoenix, AZ 8.2% 1050 26%
25 St. Louis, MO-IL 5.9% 950 24%
Note: average local wage is from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for full-year 2013.

The next Trulia Price Monitor and Trulia Rent Monitor will be released on Tuesday, December 9.

The severity of the housing crisis for each metro is based on peak-to-trough price declines in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s home price index.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor track asking home prices and rents on a monthly basis, adjusting for the changing composition of listed homes, including foreclosures provided by RealtyTrac. The Trulia Price Monitor also accounts for regular seasonal fluctuations in asking prices in order to reveal underlying price trends. The Monitors can detect price movements at least three months before the major sales-price indexes. Historical data are revised monthly. Thus, historical data presented in the current release are the best comparison with current data. Our FAQs provide the technical details.