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Tom Priester's Blog

By Tom Priester | Managing Broker in Jupiter, FL
  • Pending Home Sales All Over the Map

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Hobe Sound, Home Buying in Hobe Sound, Home Selling in Hobe Sound  |  July 4, 2014 4:19 AM  |  337 views  |  No comments

    North County Pending Home Sales Drop for 2nd Straight Month


    As of July 1st the number of pending home sales in the northern Palm Beach County dropped almost 6% over the past 30 days. They now sit at a 4 month low and trail year ago numbers by almost 11%. Is the market changing? Should we be concerned? Yes and no.



    As we keep telling you, each individual property marches to it's own set of statistics. What is true for your home may not be the same for your best friend's home a couple miles down the road. This months numbers are a great example as pending home sales in Hobe Sound are actually up 39% over the past 2 weeks. In Jupiter they have dropped a little over 4% during the same time period. If you are interested in making knowledgeable decisions then you have to know the market forces that are affecting your homes' value.

    Each year after our seasonal visitors head north the real estate world chills out a bit. It is a welcomed relief as we have more elbow room at our favorite watering holes and restaurants. We get our town back. It used to be for 6 months but that keeps shrinking and the summer months keep getting busier. The vibe of what is going on in the North County region is cool. Things are happening. So yes the market is changing; it does every year around this time. Last year at this time we reported an 11% month over month decline in pending home sales. This year it is only 6%. Are we here at Paradise Sharks concerned? Not even a little bit.

    On the front lines the buyers appear to be ready, willing and able with not enough inventory to satisfy their demands. We still think things will level off a bit over the summer months. But while sales have been slowing prices remain heading only one way and that is up, up, up. We reported in this column back on June 21st that condo prices in the area jumped again to the highest levels we have seen in over 6 years. While we won't have final numbers on monthly singly family home prices until next week we expect to see them up again for the 8th straight month. And watch for a very important milestone as we are expecting that number to hit $400,000 for the first time since 2007. We have only had three years in this area where that number exceeded $400,000. We are getting ready to add 2014 to that list.

    So the summer sales slow down is in full force but much appears to be inventory related and not demand related. Prices continue to move higher and we see no reason to think this market is changing for awhile. If you have any questions about real estate please feel free to call The Shark. After all real estate is our passion.



    Fins up.........




    Tom Priester
    Paradise Sharks Real Estate

    561.308.0175
    tom@paradisesharks.com

    www.paradisesharks.com
  • Slower Sales Raises Absorption Rate in Hobe Sound to 4 Month High

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Hobe Sound, Home Buying in Hobe Sound, Home Selling in Hobe Sound  |  December 6, 2013 10:31 AM  |  376 views  |  No comments


    Absorption Rate in Hobe Sound Moves Higher by 26%

    The period between Thanksgiving and New Years always seems to be a bit quieter than others during the year. Holiday celebrations, time spent with family and friends, goal setting for the new year and other reflections do take away from the normal routines of our every day lives. As we wind down the few remaining days of 2013 we want to thank each of you who has supported our efforts and we look forward to keeping you informed in the new year.

    A year ago it was clear that a major shift in the local real estate market was underway and the recovery continues to this day. Sometime after the first of the year we will do a complete recap of this year and projections for next so for now let’s just say it has been a very good year. Looking just at single family home sales in Jupiter through the 1st 10 months of this year they were up a whopping 16% from 2012 numbers. Median prices during the same period are up almost 13% from $323,500 to $365,000. Luxury sales over $1,000,000 have soared almost 21%. Again, all in all a very good year.

    I just received the news flash on my phone that over 200,000 jobs were added in November driving the unemployment rate down to a 5 year low and it looks like the stock market is ready to climb to new record highs. Balance that with our national debt and an approaching ceiling and other not so rosy items on the economic front and it is hard to say for sure what direction the value of your south Florida home may be heading.

    For most of us a home is the biggest single purchase we will make in our lifetime. The value of that home is a cornerstone of our personal economic stability and that is why we spend so much time keeping you up to date on the latest data affecting the local markets. We want our clients, both buyers and sellers, to make the most well informed and knowledgeable decisions that they can. Knowledge is power and we want each of you to have that power. Our goal for 2014 is to raise the bar even higher and raise the value of real estate services throughout the region. If you are not getting the most bang for your buck then something is amiss.

    For the last time in 2013 we are pleased to bring you the latest absorption rate data for Hobe Sound and her neighbors. This metric is very important to both buyers and sellers as it should impact what they either offer for, or list their properties at. Again, knowledge is power so keep in mind that you should understand the absorption rate for your particular home type or neighborhood as it can be completely different than the overall rate for the town in which you reside. When selling you need to know the higher the absorption rate the more aggressive you will need to have your property shine above the competition. Conversely when the rate is falling as a buyer you may need to make a stronger offer to be successful. 

    We base our number on how long it will take the market to absorb all of the homes on the market if sales levels over the prior 30 days remain constant and no other listings are added to the market. We look at the absorption rate which includes pending and contingent listings as it gives us a truer picture than the inventory level which eliminates those listings. The absorption rate will always be higher than the inventory level. So let’s check in on the current absorption rate in Tequesta and see what has changed since the last numbers we published on November 8th.


    Absorption rate in Palm Beach Gardens - 

    Absorption rate in Jupiter -

    Absorption rate in Hobe Sound - 8.49 months up from 6.73

    Absorption Rate in Tequesta - 9.00 months down from 10.14

    Last month at this time we reported that 75% of our reporting municipalities showed increases in their absorption rates with the average absorption rate sitting at 7.91 months and this number has been trending higher for a couple months. This month we have 50% of our towns and villages again show increases with the average moving ever so slightly lower to 7.89 months. This consolidation is a good sign but we still see some volatility depending on location. 

    We next move in this months report to Hobe Sound where we saw a significant increase in the absorption rate by about 26% which is a bearish sign for the market. A 15% decrease in final sales numbers combined with an 8% increase in inventory levels brought the absorption rate in Hobe Sound to 8.49 months up from the 6.73 months we reported last month. With this increase we moved above the 12 month average which sits at 7.86 months but did stay well below our year ago numbers when we reported 11.15 months. 

    Overall the market remains bullish but consolidating. Fins up .............


  • Home Sales in Hobe Sound Fall to Lowest Level Since November 2012

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Hobe Sound, Home Buying in Hobe Sound, Home Selling in Hobe Sound  |  December 1, 2013 3:45 AM  |  399 views  |  No comments


    October Home Sales in Hobe Sound Down Measurably by 41% 

    Our best wishes to all our friends and hope that you enjoyed a fabulous Thanksgiving with your friends, neighbors and family. It is the best time of the year to reflect on all that we have and give thanks for our many blessings. For our Jewish friends in the middle of Hanukkah we wish you a very special holiday.

    There are so many factors that have an effect, either direct or non-direct, on the real estate market. The changes are at times lightning fast and like a NFL running back easily cutting in another direction. The industry has been the foundation which the overall economy has relied on over the past 18 months. But as we have reported here the market changed again about three months ago with sales stalling even as we saw inventories increase substantially off their multi-year lows. The government shut down caused by the debt-ceiling crisis that was kicked down the road a bit no doubt gave many reason to pause and wonder if right now was a good time to invest in a new home. The bad news is this “crisis” will be hitting us smack between the eyes early next year creating another round of negative consumer sentiment so we pray for our elected officials to start working together for a long term solution.

    This week interest rates remained relatively unchanged and still historically a bargain. However the Fed again is hinting they may start slowing their bond purchases in the not too distant future. Still rates are up a full point since the first “hint” and we believe the Fed is in a tight spot. Any significant pull back on their purchases could drive rates much higher and with that the interest payments on our national debt. Janet Yellen will most likely make it through her confirmation and take over for Ben Bernanke as of January 31st and she will be jumping into a very hot seat.

    Here in southern Florida our market is a bit different than many parts of the country and therefore plays by it’s own set of rules. International buyers are a huge factor as they have cash and want to invest it somewhere that looks relatively safe compared to other investment vehicles. The international view, as the dollar slides in relationship to some other currencies, is the odds for potential appreciation are very good. The available supply of homes is constrained by the fact there is very little undeveloped land in Palm Beach County and coupled with a steadily increasing demand points to higher prices ahead.

    Throw in they steady flow of baby boomers that will be the driving force in helping Florida become the third most populated state within the next 2 years. Look for New York to slide to number 4 as our population heads north of the 20 million mark. It is easy to see why large corporate investors like Blackstone are making huge bets in real estate prices moving higher.

    As we have seen sales slide over the past few months we continue to juggle signs for optimism and those pointing towards harder times ahead. Home sales in Hobe Sound and the surrounding villages first started to show weakness in July with significant drops again last month. Now that the final numbers can be tallied for the month ended November 1st let’s see where the market headed last month.


    Palm Beach Gardens - 

    Jupiter - 

    Tequesta - 

    Hobe Sound - down 41%

    North Palm Beach - down 64%

    Last month in this column we reported that 80% of our reporting communities showed weaker sales with a spread of 40% between the best and worst performing municipalities. That was a smaller spread than we had been seeing in what has become a very volatile market. This month we have 60% of our communities showing a decline in sales but this month the spread grew dramatically to 96% which shows volatility is still out there. Once again this volatility points to inventory as a major contributor to sales numbers and that is amplified when we look at the diversity in sales numbers this month in neighboring communities.

    We next move in this months report to home sales in Hobe Sound that fell dramatically by 41% on the heels of last month’s decline of 7%. During the month of October a total of 16 Hobe Sound single family homes sold compared with 27 during the previous month. With this showing we fell far below the 12 month average sales volume which currently stands at 24.67 On a “seasonal” note home sales in Hobe Sound were also lower than the 18 sales we had in the same month in 2012.

    As we saw sales volume decrease in Hobe Sound we saw the heaviest activity in homes priced between $150,001 and $300,000 with 8 sales representing 50% of the market. With this showing the median sales price moved higher to $270,000 up 8% from last months number of $250,000. This was a new 3 month high but still shy of the 12 month average which now stands at $283,667. From a “seasonal” perspective we did remain above the median sales price from October of last year which came in at $254,150. Below are the charts showing the percentage of single family home sales in each category for the month of October as well as median prices over the past 12 months in Hobe Sound.




    The next 3 to 4 months will be critical as we see how many of our seasonal visitors decide to make a long term investment in south Florida real estate. Fins up until December...........

  • Home Inventory Levels in Hobe Sound Remain Lowest in the Region

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Hobe Sound, Home Buying in Hobe Sound, Home Selling in Hobe Sound  |  November 21, 2013 3:25 AM  |  319 views  |  No comments


    Home Inventory Level in Hobe Sound Down Slightly as of November 1st

    One week until we all hopefully take at least a couple days to spend with family and friends and give thanks for all we have been blessed with. Anyone who has owned real estate in south Florida is probably thankful as their property is in almost all cases worth more this year than it was in 2012. 

    In our last articles published back on November 10th we reported that absorption rates throughout the north county region had increased again mainly do to sales levels that continued to fall. While we are a few days away from reporting final October sales numbers it is looking like we have had a very nice rebound with sales once again picking up. The number of homes under contract in Hobe Sound and the surrounding municipalities is down slightly as on November 15th with a total of 845 properties waiting to close which is down 4 units from the October 15th numbers.

    Housing inventory numbers have been rising for about three months and it appears that buyers are reacting with sales certainly stabilizing if not rebounding but we are getting a few days ahead of ourselves. Interest rates had been increasing which reduces buying power for those borrowing money to fund their home purchase. Another good sign for the market is after being up sharply for 2 straight weeks so far this week the market has taken back much of those gains with average overnight rates on a conforming 30 year mortgage down sharply to 4.30%. Todays rate is down a full 21 basis points from where we stood last week at this time.

    Each month at this time we take a deeper look at home inventory levels in Hobe Sound and the neighboring communities. These numbers have been showing nice increases over the past three months. If we see this trend continuing it means buyers will have more options and should assist, along with lower rates, in providing us higher sales numbers in the coming months. So let’s take an in depth look at changes in the home inventory level in Tequesta and the surrounding areas since our last update on October 23rd. Last month in this report we reported inventory increases in 80% of our towns and villages with the average inventory level moving higher by 2.6%.  Now let’s take a closer look at what has transpired since then and how it will affect buyers, and sellers, as we move forward.



    This report shows our home inventory “power rankings” for the month starting on November 1st. These rankings are set up so the top rated municipality will be the one who shows the highest overall reduction in inventory levels. Since it is these reductions, when coupled with stronger sales, that will continue to move prices higher we want to rank those accordingly. So here are the inventory power rankings are the rankings for the month that ended on October 31st.

    #1 Juno Beach - 

    #2 Hobe Sound - down 0.5%

    #3 Palm Beach Gardens - up 1%

    #4 Jupiter - up 5%

    #5 Tequesta - up 11%

     
    Last month we had 80% of our reporting municipalities show higher inventories in available home inventory with the average moving higher by 2.6% and the median increase weighing in at 4%. This month we have 60% of our communities showing further increases in inventory so buyers will have more properties to choose from. Overall we had an average increase of 3.3% which was heavily weighted by a large increase in Tequesta. The median increase was only 1% which more accurately reflects what we see in the overall market. We move next in this months report to the home inventory level in Hobe Sound where inventory levels decreased slightly by 0.5% after the previous months increase of 5%. As of November 1st, the total home inventory level in Hobe Sound sits at 252 which is down 1 unit from the 253 we had on October 1st. With these levels we find ourselves with the home inventory level in Hobe Sound still down 12.5% from the 12 month average that now sits at 284.92. Looking at the “seasonal” factor we are still down 26% from the home inventory level in Hobe Sound that we reported on November 1st of last year.

    Lower interest rates and more choices for today’s buyers could provide the boost we need to turn around local sales that had flattened.

    Fins up until December .........

  • Absorption Rate in Hobe Sounds Remains Close to 7 Year Lows

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Hobe Sound, Home Buying in Hobe Sound, Home Selling in Hobe Sound  |  November 8, 2013 5:51 AM  |  283 views  |  No comments


    Absorption Rate in Hobe Sound Moves Higher by 3%

    There is no doubt that those of us who practice real estate are drawn by the constantly evolving market that keeps things interesting. Much like a physician we have “charts” that we can read to determine the health of the market. Over the past year these charts have shown for the most part a very healthy market with little reason for concern. Inventory levels shrank month over month while sales strengthened leading to prices rising for the first time in 7 years. Interest rates were at historical lows and all was well but then something happened.

    The Fed jumped in and stated publicly they were going to start scaling back on their purchases of our national debt instruments. They had been buying these bonds and treasuries like crazy over the past years to the tune of almost 3 trillion dollars. These purchases were designed do keep interest rates at artificially low levels hopefully spurring an overall economic recovery. There is no doubt this stimulus played a huge role in the strength of the market over the past year. But as soon as the Fed said they were going to scale back interest rates jumped; and significantly. Interest rates increased each week for a record 11 straight weeks jumping over 32% as the rate on a 30 year fixed conforming loan moved from 3.42% to to 4.52%.

    It is hard to say the increased rates started a reversal in market strength but there was a shift. Frustrated buyers unable to find suitable opportunities with inventory levels that continued to fall also played a role. But something changed and three months ago we started to see sales pull back from record levels. Inventory levels started to climb and sales last months in some areas hit 18 month lows. Some signs point to overpriced inventory more to blame than waning demand but there is no doubt something is shifting and not for the better.

    As sales have stalled so have price increases as month over month numbers show little change and in some neighborhoods we are seeing declines. Any respected physician knows a patient’s charts very well and this is precisely why each month we look at our “chart” to see what signs we see for the health of the absorption rate in Hobe Sound and our other local municipalities.

    The trend of these numbers shows buyers what they can expect in choices when they start shopping for the perfect Florida home. We base this number on how long it will take the market to absorb all of the homes on the market if sales levels over the prior 30 days remain constant and no other listings are added to the market. We look at the absorption rate which includes pending and contingent listings as it gives us a truer picture than the inventory level which eliminates those listings. The absorption rate will always be higher than the inventory level. So let’s check in on the absorption rate in Hobe Sound and her neighbors to see what has changed since the last numbers we published on October 5th.


    Absorption rate in Hobe Sound - 6.73 months up from 6.55

    Absorption rate in Jupiter - 7.22 months down from 7.98

    Absorption rate in  Palm Beach Gardens - 7.85 months up from 7.0

    Absorption Rate in Tequesta - 10.14 months up from 9.5

    Last month at this time we reported that 100% of our reporting municipalities showed increases in their absorption rates with the average absorption rate sitting at 7.76 months which was a significant bounce from what had been 7 year lows. While an increase off of record lows is not unusual the bounce we experienced last month was a big one. This month we have 75% of our towns and villages again show increases, mostly minor, with the average moving higher by 5% to 7.985 months. However we again hit the highest level we have seen in some time. 

    We wrap up this months report in Hobe Sound where we saw an increase in the absorption rate by about 3%. A 9% decrease in final sales numbers combined with a 7% decrease in inventory levels brought the absorption rate in Hobe Sound to 6.73 months up from the 6.55 months we reported last month. With this increase we stayed well below the 12 month average which sits at 8.08 months and also managed to stay far below our year ago numbers when we reported 13.66 months. With these numbers the absorption rate in Hobe Sound stayed very close to 7 year lows which like the report we got out of Jupiter is a positive sign as we head into the 2013-2014 season.

    If you are contemplating a real estate transaction of any kind make sure you check in with your doctor so you know just how healthy a market you are in as it can save you many thousands of dollars. Fins up .............

  • Home Sales in Hobe Sound Down Slightly in September

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Hobe Sound, Home Buying in Hobe Sound, Home Selling in Hobe Sound  |  October 30, 2013 9:39 AM  |  302 views  |  No comments


    September Home Sales in Hobe Sound Down 7% 

    Father Time does keep marching on and it is so hard to believe that Friday we will be into November with Thanksgiving just around the corner. Already we see multitudes of our winter visitors and their cars arriving as the beaches, bars and restaurants are quickly filling up. Welcome back!

    The real estate market has gone through changes since our visitors left us in May with limited well priced inventory continuing to be a problem for buyers. Interest rates have pulled back, the unemployment rate is back down to a 5 year low and our leaders in Washington have delayed any substantive talks to deal with our debt issue until after the first of the year. Locally home prices have leveled off as we still see double digit year over year gains but the month over month numbers show very little change. 

    While more and more transactions are being settled for cash the ability for borrowers to qualify for loans has improved as lenders are accepting lower credit scores and smaller down payments. Right now the average FICO score on a closed home loan is 732 and over 30% of all loans went to those with sub 700 scores. This is down from the 750 average score we saw a year ago. While underwriting is still a frustrating process banks are trying to approve more loans as the re-financing activity has all but dried up so banks are getting creative with loans once again trying to drive business.

    Everybody agrees that real estate has been the driving force behind the economic recovery we have seen and historic low rates were a huge factor in the recovery. Everyone was a buyer again with investors adding to the fury purchasing at least 20% of all properties sold in Palm Beach County over the past year. Sellers have raised their prices as inventory levels continue to shrink. But the market is always moving and as overpriced inventory sits stagnant we have seen the overall selection improve with stabilization in the overall inventory for two straight months.

    As quickly as they had been buying buyers started hitting the brakes and we have seen sales slow in the northern Palm Beach County region both in July and August and something in the air just feels a bit different. Is demand slowing just because sellers are asking too much and buyers aren’t going to overpay with the last bubble still fresh in their mind?

    Once again it is time to take a deeper look in to sales levels of single family homes in the north county region to see if the recent slide in closings will continue. Home sales in Hobe Sound and the neighboring communities started to level off in July so let’s see what transpired during the month ended October 1st.


    North Palm Beach - 

    Hobe Sound - down 7%

    Palm Beach Gardens - down 24%

    Jupiter - down 29%

    Tequesta - down 32%

    Last month in this column we reported that 60% of our reporting communities showed weaker sales with a spread of 72.5% between the best and worst performing municipalities. That was a huge spread but if we throw out the strong numbers reported by North Palm Beach sales were really down across the board with a spread of 10%.  This month we have 80% of our communities showing a decline in sales but this month the spread shrank to 40% which still shows volatility. This volatility points to inventory still a major contributor to sales numbers but this months drop when you consider inventory stabilization is significant.

    We next move in this months report to home sales in Hobe Sound that dropped 7% on the heels of last month’s drop of 10%. During the month of September a total of 27 Hobe Sound single family homes sold compared with 29 during the previous month. With this showing we did stay above the 12 month average sales volume which currently stands at 24.83. On a “seasonal” note home sales in Hobe Sound we were far higher than the 8 sales we had in the same month in 2012.

    As we saw sales volume decrease in Hobe Sound we saw the heaviest activity in homes priced between $150,001 and $300,000 with 18 sales representing 67% of the market. With this showing the median sales price still moved higher to $250,000 up 9% from last months number of $229,000. We did however fall below the 12 month average which now stands at $282,346 From a “seasonal” perspective we also remained significantly higher than the median sales price from September of last year which came in at $147,000. Below are the charts showing the percentage of single family home sales in each category for the month of September as well as median prices over the past 12 months in Hobe Sound.




    It has been a while since we were at such an important crossroad and the next month will help us determine where this market is headed. Fins up until November...........


  • First Increase in 6 Months for Home Inventory Level in Hobe Sound

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Hobe Sound, Home Buying in Hobe Sound, Home Selling in Hobe Sound  |  October 23, 2013 6:35 AM  |  280 views  |  No comments


    Home Inventory Level in Hobe Sound up 5% as of October 1st

    Almost everywhere one looks we find stabilization in the local real estate markets. The steep declines in inventory levels have abated. Interest rates have dropped and moderated after the Fed announced their decision to continue the current level of quantitative easing. Even the median home price increases have leveled off and while the year over year numbers look great we are not seeing much movement in the month over month numbers.

    However, almost everywhere, is not the same as everywhere and some concern should be shown for the significant drop is home sales and corresponding increase in the absorption rate we have seen over the past couple months. While it still appears that the drop is sales is due more to the lack of well priced inventory the jury is still out on where we go from here in the great real estate recovery of 2013.

    Home inventory is extremely crucial as it shows what buyers out shopping have to pick from. There are properties out there but many sellers are priced above the most recent comparable sales after reading about the huge price increases and thinking they will continue. Buyers often times are more concerned about some of the negative economic news we get bombarded with and do not want to overpay while visions of 2007 through 2012 are still dancing in their heads.

    While interest rates have headed a bit lower the cost of owning a home has increased as prices have increased. Some see the market changing from a strong seller’s market back into one that may favor the buyer in coming months. Just look at a recent survey of Realtors® 86% of whom during the 2nd quarter thought it was a great time to sell. Those numbers changed during the 3rd quarter to 72% or a decline of 16%.

    The market changes daily and the effect of these changes can have a significant impact on any real estate decision you may be contemplating. So let’s take an in depth look at changes in the home inventory level in Hobe Sound and the surrounding areas since our last update on September 12th. Last month in this report we reported declines in the number of available homes but is was very slight at 1.54%. Now let’s take a closer look at what has transpired since then and how it will affect buyers, and sellers, as we move forward.



    This report shows our home inventory “power rankings” for the month starting on October 1st. These rankings are set up so the top rated municipality will be the one who shows the highest overall reduction in inventory levels. Since it is these reductions, when coupled with stronger sales, that will continue to move prices higher we want to rank those accordingly. So here are the inventory power rankings are the rankings for the month that ended on September 30th.

    #1 Tequesta - 

    #2 Juno Beach - 

    #3 Jupiter - 

    #4 Hobe Sound - up 5%

    #5 Palm Beach Gardens - up 5%

     
    Last month we had 40% of our reporting municipalities show further declines in available home inventory with another 40% showing an increase. Overall the northern Palm Beach County region showed further inventory declines with the average falling by another 1.54% and the median decrease weighing in with no change. This month we have 80% of our communities showing further declines in inventory which is certainly a bearish sign for sellers. Overall we had an average decline of 2.6% as we see the continued stabilization in this metric. We next move in this months report to the home inventory level in Hobe Sound where inventory levels increased 5% after the previous months decrease of 6%. It really is amazing as this was the first increase in six months in the home inventory level in Hobe Sound. As of October 1st, the total home inventory level in Hobe Sound sits at 253 which is up 12 units from the 241 we had on September 1st. With these levels we find ourselves with the home inventory level in Hobe Sound down 13% from the 12 month average that now sits at 292.25. Looking at the “seasonal” factor we are also down 24% from the home inventory level in Hobe Sound that we reported on October 1st of last year.

    Keep a very close eye on our upcoming sales report to see where the tug of war between sellers and buyers goes from here.

    Fins up until November .........


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