This morning as I felt cool air on our desk once again, I was heartened by the sight of new buds on a tree.

We are on the verge of spring in spite of a new dose of cool weather.  Yesterday in the morning our temperatures were in the mid-sixties.  There are plenty of daffodils blooming, and last week it was warm enough to take our skiff out on the river.

Perhaps we were a little early for the fish, but real estate is not exactly consuming all of my time these days.  NC's Crystal Coast has been a favorite spot of mine for over fifty years.  In 2006 after over three years of looking we bought a place in western Carteret County on the shores of the White Oak River.

At that time, I went into a career in real estate after a career of 25 years in technology.  While I am confident that our home on the water was a good enough value that we will be okay over time, it is pretty obvious that getting into real estate in 2006 is going to be one of the bigger challenges in my life.

I have managed to do well compared to other newcomers, but the market is taking its toll of established Realtors®.  While we might see plenty of blooming flowers and even fresh strawberries within the next five or six weeks, I suspect recovery in our real estate market is going to be a more drawn out affair.

As I look at some market statistics, I am sobered at the challenged that we face this spring.  We have more than double the number of active listings that were around at the same time in 2004.  While the number has dropped since last year by slightly less than 10%, new listings are still being added faster than in 2004.

At the same time, the number under contract is slightly less, but the number sold is less than half what is was in 2004 and has declined by 25% from the same time in 2008.  Our total volume is down almost 70% from the peak it reached in 2005 and has declined almost 40% from last year.

Average sale price has declined, dropping almost 20% just since last year.

It appears that the best description of the market is a "Buyer's market with few buyers."

While it would be easy to be very pessimistic with all those challenging statistics, I remain optimistic.

First of all, given what happened last fall in the financial markets, and the efforts to get things moving again, I am not surprised that people are taking their time re-entering the market. That is the sensible thing to do.  Certainly the delay does not help my cash flow, but it makes sense, and I would likely do the same thing if I were a buyer in this market.

Many people's portfolios have seen significant loses, so people are sitting on the fence at this point.  If we add to that the difficulty in selling a home in almost any spot in the US, I think we have to be somewhat grateful for any sales in such tough conditions.

My reasons for feeling confident about the future boil down to just a few.

First our area along the Crystal Coast did not go through a huge splurge in building.  While we might have a couple of subdivisions where there are many lots and no houses, we also have many more subdivisions like ours in Bluewater Cove which are in pretty good shape.  We have forty-two homes already built and only a handful of lots left in the original section.  There are only three homes for sale which includes one spec house by the builder.

Second we remain a very attractive place for retirees and people looking for reasonably priced homes either on the water or with water access.  We are within ten minutes of the beaches and the Intracoastal Waterway-Bogue Inlet.  Our services are modern, year round, and growing.  Our schools are great as evidenced by the local high school winning an award as one of the top six hundred high schools in the country.  Taxes are low, the climate is one of the best I have seen, and how much better can it get than to be sandwiched between 158,000 acres of Croatan National Forest and the beautiful beaches of Emerald Isle. On top of that our waters are some of the purest around.

Third, we are something of a secret.  Many people outside of North Carolina have never heard of the Crystal Coast. While the Northern Outer Banks (OBX) are well known, the Southern Outer Banks (SOBX) have been something which mostly depended on word of mouth advertising.  Most people when they end up looking at both areas, quickly decide our area is the better choice for year round living.  I doubt that trend will change.  There are good reasons to choose the Crystal Coast, and if anything, there are more to add to the list that brought us here.

Fourth, we are seeing many people who are inquiring about our area and putting us on their evaluation list.  While our inventory might look huge from one perspective, a few hundred new residents would a huge difference.  In the meantime we have a strong rental market for homes on the beach.  It is only down about 5% from last year compared to many coastal areas where demand has dropped 35%.

Finally, many of what I considered to some of the best waterfron buys have been snapped up in the last couple of years.  Bargain hunters have done a pretty good job of picking up the best buys in the low end of the market.  In response to that, we have seen a recent increase in inquiries on waterfront or water access lots.  While we might have lots of inventory, very little of it is actually prime waterfront housing especially when you start looking for boat ramps and other ammenities. It is just not that easy to find what we have and still have a friendly small town environment.

It remains a great time to look for a property, but it all depends on what type of property is your idea of the perfect place.  I seriously doubt that value to price ratio will improve much more on already built homes.  The leverage that a buyer has especially in the over $200K market is about as good as it is going to get.    While most buyers are reluctant to admit that, I suspect that will change in the next six to nine months.

We might have plenty of time for spring fishing, but fall might have its challenges.  In the meantime, I will keep writing, enjoying the beaches, fishing,  loving where I live, and using Trulia to enhance my website.]]>