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Rebecca Kallhoff's Blog

By Rebecca Kallhoff | Agent in San Tan Valley, AZ

How's the MARKET? How's the numbers?

Thanks for the information!! HERE Are the numbers....It is real, we are low on inventory!

 Fletcher Wilcox and Corrie Johnson
June 7, 2012
Report: Shadow inventory dwindled for single family properties in Greater Phoenix 
  For a You Tube video on shadow inventory in Greater Phoenix go to http://mytitleguy.com/2012/06/shadow-inventory-phoenix/
 1. Shadow inventory defined as the number of properties foreclosed on that are now being held by the lender (lender-owned) but not on the market.
 The number of lender-owned single family properties that are not listed or pending dropped twenty-seven percent from May 1, 2010 to June 1, 2012  for a total of 3,562.  So, there is not a dark shadow of properties lenders are holding and waiting to dump on the market.     
                   Single family properties held by lenders but not on market
May 1June 1Difference
Total4,872    3,562   -1,310 or 27%
 2. Shadow inventory defined as the number of properties in the foreclosure process.  A Notice of Trustee's Sale was recorded against these properties in the foreclosure process.  These properties have yet to go to auction completing the foreclosure process.  Some of these properties will never go to auction because they will end up as short sales.    
There was a very slight increase in the number of single family properties in the foreclosure process.   From May 1, 2012 to June 1, 2012 the increase was twenty-eight properties bringing the total number to 16,903.  
 You might say that 16,903 properties is a lot of properties in the foreclosure process.   Yes, it is, but low compared to the days when there were over 30,000.  But what would happen to property values if all 16,903 single family properties in foreclosure were foreclosed on at auction and released into the market all about the same time?   It is doubtful this would happen.  In May 2012, 2,683 or sixteen percent of the 16,875 homes in the foreclosure process were foreclosed on.   

May 1
June 1
Total single family properties in foreclosure process
+28 or less than one percent
For the first five months of 2012, there were 11,549 completed foreclosures compared to 23,410 for the same time period last year for a decrease of fifty-one percent.

January thru May 2011
January thru May 2012
Completed foreclosures
 - 11,861 or 51% 
3.  The number of foreclosure starts is down for the first five months this year averaging 3,607 per month compared to 7,714 per month for the same time period in 2009.  I define a foreclosure start as the day the Notice of Trustee's Sale is recorded on a property.   
 Even though overall foreclosure starts are down there may be mortgage products that increase in foreclosure starts.  Housing Wire.com on May 31 reported that a study by Lender Processing Services said in April, 63,129 FHA insured loans nationwide went into the foreclosure process, while HUD said the number is 19,000.  Let's take the worst of these two numbers, 63,129.  If we divide by fifty states each state has 1,263 more FHA insured properties in the foreclosure process (of course some states will have more and others less than 1,261).  This is not a big number.  http://www.housingwire.com/news/fha-foreclosures-spike-73-april 
Foreclosure starts for January thru May38,57229,23821,79918,034
                                                       Monthly Foreclosure Starts
 The Greater Phoenix residential market had some of the highest appreciation during the boom and then was one of the first areas to collapse.  Because most foreclosures in Greater Phoenix go through a foreclosure process called a trustee's sale, which is much quicker and less expensive than a judicial foreclosure our market disposed of foreclosure properties much sooner than most other areas of the country, especially those that rely on judicial foreclosures.   
  The decline in foreclosures leading to a decline in listing inventory has led to an increase in sold prices.  The question now is where will listing inventory come from?                                                    
                                                      Declining Listing Inventory
Single family activelistings under $200,000in Greater PhoenixMarch 13April 12May 13June 7March 13 to June 7
-889 or 28%

 The information for this report is from NetValueCentral.com and the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.

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