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By Peter Middleton | Broker in San Diego, CA

Could the Foreclosure Plague be Ending?

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Foreclosure filings were down 3% in October, the third consecutive month-over-month dip, according to RealtyTrac, the online seller of foreclosed homes.

To be sure, foreclosure rates are still elevated from a year ago: They're up 18% compared with October 2008. But the month-over-month decrease followed a 4% drop in filings during September and a 1% fall in August.

Where Does Your State Rank?

"Three consecutive monthly declines is unprecedented for our report, and, on first blush, an indication that the foreclosure tide may be turning," said James Saccacio, RealtyTrac's CEO, in a prepared statement.

He cautioned, however, that three consecutive singles does not constitute a hitting streak. So there still may be dark days ahead.

"The fundamental forces driving foreclosure activity in this housing downturn -- high-risk mortgages, negative equity, and unemployment -- continue to loom over any nascent recovery," he said. "And despite all the efforts and resources directed at helping homeowners avoid foreclosure, we continue to see foreclosure activity levels that are substantially higher than a year ago in most states."

Broad economic distress, such as the rising unemployment rate, has RealtyTrac spokesman Rick Sharga thinking that declining foreclosures may be artificial rather than a real trend. "Processing delays and legislative actions are slowing down foreclosures," not actual improvement in the market, he said.

The slowdowns include banks taking time to judge whether some loans are eligible for the Making Home Affordable program, President Obama's foreclosure-prevention initiative that was passed last spring.

And new state-level regulations have also lowered foreclosure statistics. One such rule that took effect July 1 in Nevada allows homeowners who receive notices of default to demand mandatory mediation with their lenders.

As a result, "There was a 27% drop in filings in October in Las Vegas," said Sharga. "That hasn't happened in, like, forever."

Those factors may have especially delayed bank repossessions. RealtyTrac reported 77,077 REOs in October, down 12.2% compared to September, when nearly 88,000 homes were lost. For the year, there have been a total of 700,929 properties taken back by banks.

Home prices on the increase

One positive trend is that home prices have retained modest gain over the past few months. As a result, fewer mortgage borrowers owe more than their homes are worth. And that's good news for the foreclosure rate.

The second trigger is owing more on the mortgage than the home is worth. Millions of borrowers are in that position: More than 20% of borrowers are underwater, according to Zillow.

Most will continue to pay off their mortgages. However, if a family member loses their job or someone gets sick or the loan resets to a much higher interest rate, that's when the home may be lost.

Homeowners with positive home equity are in less jeopardy. Even if they run into unexpected expenses or periods of unemployment, they can tap their home value, via a home equity loan or cash-out refinance, to tide them over.

The usual suspects

The "sand states," Nevada, California, Florida and Arizona, continued to suffer the worst foreclosure problems. Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation, one filing for every 80 housing units.

In second place was California, where filings dipped 1% to one filing for every 156 households. The state, by far the most heavily populated, had more filings, 85,420, than any other.

Florida, with 51,911 filings, had the third highest foreclosure rate, one for every 168 households. Arizona was fourth with one for every 200.

Idaho has moved up the list of worst foreclosure states this year; it had a rate of one filing for every 255 households during October, more than double its rate in October 2008 and good for fifth place among states.

Other huge rate increases were recorded by New Mexico, up 371% year-over-year; Hawaii, which recorded a 134% spike; Wisconsin, up 128%; and Maryland, where filings jumped 124%.

Las Vegas is still the worst hit metro area. More than one in every 68 households received a filing during October, fives times the national average. 

Comments

By Dan Chase,  Sun Nov 22 2009, 15:20
Not very likely. Look at the real numbers below.

Housing outlook: Slower sales, falling prices, more foreclosures
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/11/18/housing-market-forces-point-to-slower-sales-more-foreclosures-a/?icid=sphere_blogsmith_inpage_dailyfinance
2.7 Million Homes In The Foreclosure Pipeline Could Overwhelm Market
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/27-million-homes-in-the-foreclosure-pipeline-could-overwhelm-market-53901.aspx
7 million foreclosures to come
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aw6_gqc0EKKg

The housing market dropped off a cliff in October. I will wait several more months to see just how deep that cliff went. I figure by next fall prices will be so much more affordable. And to think, all of that time I will also be adding to my savings, what a sweet deal.

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