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Nicole Hedges' Blog

By Nicole Hedges | Agent in Scottsdale, AZ
  • State of the Market...contrasting local & national stats / trends - 'go west young investor'

    Posted Under: Home Buying in Phoenix, Home Selling in Phoenix, Property Q&A in Phoenix  |  September 6, 2013 1:35 AM  |  223 views  |  No comments

    The last Tuesday of August means it is time for the S&P/Case-Shiller© Home Price Index© to be published. If we look at at the long term chart (below) for this index, we can see the following:


    1. Phoenix started the recovery in September 2011, a few months before the other 19 areas covered by the index.
    2. It has moved 37.1% higher since reaching bottom in September 2011.
    3. It moved up 1.8% in the last month (Apr-Jun versus Mar-May)
    4. It moved up 19.8% in the last 12 months (Apr-June 2013 versus Apr-Jun 2012).
    5. The monthly rate of increase reached a peak of 2.5% in Apr-Jun 2012 and has moderated somewhat since then.
    6. The weakest period since Oct-Dec 2011 was Oct-Dec 2012 when the price index increased by 0.9% per month.
    7. The index would have to increase another 66% to match the bubble peak of 227.42 in June 2006.
    8. The current index is higher than June 2004 and October 2008. Between those months, the index was higher than now.

    These conclusions are all very consistent with the price per sq. ft. measurements we take from the ARMLS data, once you allow for the time delay inherent in the Case-Shiller process.

    Phoenix still sits further below the bubble peak than most of the country. The 20-city composite currently would have to increase 29% to regain it's maximum. Las Vegas has the furthest to climb with a 100% jump required. Miami (68%) and Tampa (61%) are in a similar position to Phoenix. Dallas and Denver have both regained and surpassed their previous peaks and are setting all time price records now. However both are non-volatile markets. Denver is 43% above its January 2000 point while Dallas is up by only 30% in the last 13 years.

    In terms of annual increases we have been overtaken by three of our neighboring cities and the ranking table looks like this:

    1. Las Vegas +24.9%
    2. San Francisco +24.5%
    3. Los Angeles +19.9%
    4. Phoenix +19.8%
    5. San Diego +19.3%
    6. Atlanta +19.0%
    7. Detroit +16.4%
    8. Miami +14.8%
    9. Portland +11.8%
    10. Seattle +11.8%
    11. Minneapolis - 11.5%
    12. Tampa +11.1%
    13. Denver +9.4%
    14. Dallas +8.0%
    15. Charlotte +7.8%
    16. Chicago +7.3%
    17. Boston +6.7%
    18. Washington DC +5.7%
    19. Cleveland +3.5%
    20. New York +3.3%

    It is clear that the market is much stronger in the West than in the Northeast. However, even for New York, home prices are increasing faster than inflation.

    Another trend that jumps out at you when looking at the long term chart is the sudden acceleration of price increases on the west coast and in Atlanta & Chicago. Between the reading for Dec-Feb and the current reading for Apr-Jun, a period of just 4 months, the index has increased as follows:

    1. San Francisco +16.7%
    2. Atlanta +12.5%
    3. San Diego +12.4%
    4. Las Vegas +11.2%
    5. Los Angeles +11.0%
    6. Seattle +11.0%
    7. Chicago +10.0%
    8. Portland +9.2%
    9. Miami +8.5%
    10. Tamps +8.3%
    11. Detroit +8.1%
    12. Dallas +7.5%
    13. Washington DC +7.3%
    14. Phoenix +7.2%
    15. Denver +7.1%
    16. Boston +7.1%
    17. Charlotte +6.6%
    18. Minneapolis +6.4%
    19. Cleveland +5.9%
    20. New York +4.2%

    Note that Phoenix has "only" increased by 7.2% over the last four months (consistent with its annual trend of +19.8%), but this places us in a lowly 14th place and below the overall 20-city average of 8.8%. The rate of increase for the top 7 cities over the last 4 months is staggering, representing annualized rates of over 30% and over 50% in the case of San Francisco. The 20-city increase of 8.8% is the highest four month increase EVER posted for this index since it was first reported in January 2000. The maximum 4 month increase during the bubble was 7.7% in June and July 2004.

    The 10-city index increased by 8.90% over the last 4 months and this also sets a new record since January 1987 when the 10-city index was first published. By a whisker it breaks the previous record of 8.88% set in June 2004.

    Yet we still hear talk of a "slow recovery". It doesn't get any faster than this, folks. In the past 4 months the Case-Shiller 10-city and 20-city indexes have risen faster than at any time in living memory. Some cities were rising even faster in 2012 but the composite indexes were dragged down by other cities that were still declining at that point.

    For the record, the fastest decline was at a slightly more extreme rate of -9.5% over 4 months reported in January and February 2009.

    The press release issued with the report mentions "the pace of price increases is moderating". However this moderation is actually fairly slight and represents a change in pace from insane to merely ridiculous.

    The mass-obsession with interest rates and "the Fed" has caused the press release to downplay the actual numbers being reported and focus instead on what might happen over the next few months. It is indeed possible, even likely, that price increases may slow and the market quieten down, but none of this is evident in the numbers reported today. The interest rate rise happened too recently to affect the current Case-Shiller numbers in any meaningful way. Next month is the first time increased interest rates can have an impact on the Case-Shiller index.

    So we can talk about the slowing numbers as and when they actually happen, but for now, as a statistician, I would like to focus on two more all-time records broken with this month's report:

    1. Highest 4-month increase ever for San Francisco of 16.7% (previous record 15.3% in June 2000)
    2. Highest 4-month increase ever for Charlotte of 6.6% (previous records 5.5% in June 2012 and 5.4% in July 2006)

    Even though Charlotte has a relatively non-volatile housing market, we should be fair and acknowledge the fact when it makes a new record. 

    ~Cromford Daily Observation for August 27th

  • Phoenix Supply Vs. Interest Rates

    Posted Under: Home Buying in Phoenix, Financing in Phoenix, In My Neighborhood in Phoenix  |  June 14, 2013 3:18 PM  |  305 views  |  No comments
    This is a timely message, as it speaks to what many may be concerned about in the current housing market atmosphere of generally rising prices, high demand, low supply, but new (albeit inevitable) evidence of a rising trend in interest rates.

    While the sample data reported below is from Maricopa County, the fundamentals of this message apply statewide. 

    There is no inverse correlation between interest rates and home prices. In the past, home prices have often gone up when interest rates went up and they have also gone up when interest rates went down. Home prices only go down in unusual situations when supply is well in excess of demand. Prices have fallen like this in the Phoenix area between 1989 and 1991 and between 2006 and 2011. Between mid 1989 and mid 1991, the fall in prices was about 9 to 10%. During this time 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates fell from around 10% to around 8.5%. No inverse correlation there.

    Between June 2006 and August 2011 prices were also in a strong downward trend, though most of that decline happened between 3Q 2007 and 1Q 2009. Between 2006 and 2011 mortgage interest rates dropped from around 6.75% to around 4.5%. No inverse correlation there.

    Interest rates went up sharply during 1994, during 1996, between 1998 and 1999 and between 2003 and 2006. Did prices go down during these time. No they did not, they went up just like the interest rates. No inverse correlation there.

    During all these times the direction of home prices and the direction of mortgage interest rates were the same. At other times they can move in opposite directions. There is no clear correlation either negative or positive. The fact that the majority of people believe there is a correlation, does not change the reality.

    Prices have moved strongly upward between August 2011 and June 2013. During that time interest rates drifted down from 4.5% to around 3.5% and very recently have moved back up to around 4%. There is little evidence that low interest rates had any major influence on the market pricing. Demand has been only slightly above normal during this time despite the very attractive interest rates. It was lack of supply that drove these huge price increases.

    So now that interest rate have finally started to rise from a ridiculously low level, some people have said this is going to cause home prices to fall. There is no logical basis for this assertion at all.

    When interest rates rise, this causes affordability to fall. However affordability does not equate to demand. Demand is one of the two key factors that influence prices, affordability is not. The highest demand we have seen in the past 30 years was in 2004 and early 2005 when affordability was extremely low.

    In fact increases in mortgage interest rates often cause an increase in demand in spite of falling affordability. That is because many people expect the upward trend to continue, so they want to lock in the current rate by getting a mortgage now before it rises higher. This "sense of urgency" phenomenon is very real and has been observed many times in the last 60 years and confirmed by many experienced Realtors®.

    Now if interest rates were to increase dramatically and suddenly, this could destroy the "sense of urgency" because people would immediately feel they were too late to make the move. I am talking of a jump from 4% to 9% or something of that nature. But is that really likely? I doubt it. The government likes to interfere with interest rates and they are unlikely to let that happen.

    Gentle and predictable rises in interest rates will actually be good for the housing market because the rising gap between low and high rates will probably encourage lenders to be a little more flexible with their underwriting practices. Opening up the market to more people will have a much larger effect than the increase in their monthly payments. It's no good being able to afford a mortgage payment if you can't get approved for it.

    Of course demand is not sufficient to determine prices. Supply is the other key factor. The foreclosure crisis has caused us to under-build new homes by a huge amount for over 5 years. This is still creating a supply hole that has been largely unrecognized by the general public. This effect is likely to dominate the market for a very long time, except in areas where the population is shrinking. Only the builders can create significantly more supply. It is not coming from lenders, it is not coming from landlord investors and it is not coming from ordinary homeowners. Ordinary homeowners and landlord investors usually involve homes that are occupied. So when they sell they do not create net new supply. The families or individuals living there move into a new home, often not too far away. This means they add 1 to supply and 1 to demand. The net effect is zero. Only when that home is somewhere other than Greater Phoenix do we see an increase in our supply. For the foreseeable future those people are likely to be outnumbered by the people who are moving here from somewhere else, who add 1 to demand and 0 to supply.

    This housing cycle still has a very long way to run before it turns down again. None of the negative factors mentioned by observers recently have enough market power to overcome the dominant effect of the chronic supply shortage.

    From The Cromford Report Daily Observation

  • The conventional wisdom is usually wrong...

    Posted Under: Home Buying in 85018, In My Neighborhood in 85018, Investment Properties in 85018  |  February 28, 2013 2:51 PM  |  305 views  |  No comments
    When working with buyers is that the 'the conventional wisdom is usually wrong'. Mike Orr (The Cromford Report) builds on this notion in yesterday's Daily Observation. From Mike Orr:

    February 21 - It was amazing to me how many intelligent people refused to believe we were in a bubble in 2004-2006. Now it is amazing to me how many intelligent people refuse to believe we are now in a genuine recovery. At both times the facts and figures were patently obvious to anyone with an open mind, but the determination of people to believe what they want to can overcome any mountain of facts. Real estate is clearly cyclical, and this recovery cycle is still young. Prices haven't even got back to the long term trend line yet. When the down cycle comes into view you will hear about it in these pages. People who always think the market is headed south are no more use than people who always think it is going up.

    Having started to give up on the patently silly theory that a huge shadow inventory of lender owned homes will flood the market, the skeptics are developing a new theory that buy and hold investors will discover that property management is more complex and expensive than they thought and dump a load of rental homes back onto the market at once. This is supposed to create a second drop in prices. Like most popular housing doom theories there is a grain of truth to this concept, but the bulk of it is nonsense. Property management is certainly a varied and complex challenge, but landlords have been doing it for centuries and the majority of them have done pretty well. One solution is letting an experienced property management company do the hard work for a fixed percentage of the rent. Any investor who has underestimated this task can get out now by selling at a large percentage profit and handing the home on to a landlord who understands how the real rental world works. There are more than enough professional investors around who know what they are doing and their appetite for additional properties is only slightly diminished since last year.

    The really serious threat to landlords is not unexpected property management costs but long term vacancies. These are much harder to predict because the future demand for rentals is essentially unknown. In addition, vacancy rates for single family homes are very difficult to measure. However it is abundantly clear that vacancy rates are still low right now, given how many people apply to lease most available rental homes. We currently have 6,889 active rental listings on ARMLS, a bit higher than last year at this time (6,045). but much lower than peak levels such as the 8.895 we saw in 2009. At some point in the future we will have more than enough rental properties to satisfy demand. We are not at this point yet, but when we reach it the savvy investors will gradually dispose of the surplus properties feeding them back into the owner-occupied market. Of course the skeptical pessimists assume that the investors are stupid and that they will exit the market in a panic sell-off. To be frank, this is as ridiculous as assuming that banks like to hoard homes and hide them from market observers.

    The basic issue that the skeptics seem to overlook and disregard is that we have a real and chronic shortage of homes in Phoenix relative to the population. This imbalance is due to continued population growth while the home building industry stagnated for 5 year between 2008 and 2012.

    My advice to a skeptic is this: spend a couple of weeks trying to buy (with a loan) just one decent home in a reasonable area of Phoenix or the surrounding cities for less than $175,000 (which is well above the median sales price). It is a nightmare task, and not just because of competition from investors. There is plenty enough competition from other owner-occupiers to make your assignment very frustrating. Bidding 15% over list price doesn't usually work because your appraisal will come in too low.

    In Phoenix affordable housing in central areas is so scarce that a large number of rentals coming back onto the market would have a welcome stabilizing effect. Thousands of normal owner-occupiers with good credit are struggling to find anything to buy at all. For this to change we need a lot more supply. Where is it to come from? The home builders are ramping up only slowly and their subdivisions are mostly in outlying areas. If you wish to live centrally you will probably have to set your sights on a re-sale. Good luck with that!

    The only way this gets resolved is for prices to go higher still. This brings out more sellers and we will know we have enough when active listings on ARMLS go back over 32,000 again.

    Investors will no doubt sell much of their inventory over the next ten years realizing a significant capital gain. However the homes they sell are currently occupied by tenants. Therefore the sale of one of these homes in the near term will not add to the net supply because that tenant will either stay in the home or have to live somewhere else. Net inventory will only grow when an empty rental unit is sold onto the open market. This is still a fairly rare event in 2013, unfortunately.

  • Upward Pricing Pressure in Phoenix

    Posted Under: Home Buying in Phoenix, Home Selling in Phoenix, Financing in Phoenix  |  January 29, 2013 11:52 AM  |  264 views  |  No comments

    To combine measures of supply and demand and adjust for seasonality, we use the Cromford Market Indexâ„¢. When this is above 100 then it indicates that demand exceeds supply and pricing pressure is upward. When it is below 100 it indicates that supply exceeds demand and pricing pressure is downward..

    Right now across the ARMLS territory we see the Cromford Market Indexâ„¢ at 172.8. That message is not vague. Long term pricing pressure is still strongly upward. There are areas where the Cromford Market Indexâ„¢ is much lower, but most of the local housing markets have a strong excess of supply over demand. Here are some of the local Cromford Market Indexâ„¢ values for the single family detached market:

    • Glendale - 228.8
    • Gilbert - 215.8
    • Tolleson - 214.0
    • Apache Junction - 209.5
    • Peoria - 208.5
    • Mesa - 206.5
    • Chandler - 204.3
    • Avondale - 197.6
    • Anthem - 197.0
    • Tempe - 194.9
    • Phoenix - 190.1
    • Paradise Valley - 171.6
    • Scottsdale - 170.3
    • El Mirage - 169.3
    • Cave Creek - 165.4
    • Laveen - 165.1
    • Fountain Hills - 163.1
    • Sun City -149.4
    • Sun Lakes - 140.8
    • Goodyear - 139.5
    • Sun City West - 134.1
    • Surprise - 129.3
    • Litchfield Park - 129.1
    • Casa Grande - 112.6
    • Arizona City - 110.8
    • Buckeye - 107.6
    • Queen Creek - 105.7 (dominated by San Tan Valley, the Town of Queen Creek is much stronger)
    • Gold Canyon - 91.5
    • Maricopa - 73.3

    There is typically a 12-18 month delay between changes in the Cromford Market Indexâ„¢ and a corresponding change in average sales price per sq. ft.. Note that Queen Creek (especially the San Tan Valley area) and Maricopa (city) have already seen huge increases in average price per sq. ft. and this has already done much to lessen demand and bring out more supply. Maricopa's CMI is now moving higher having hit a low point of 65.5 in December.

    That 12-18 month delay is the 'predicting' part. Put another way, if everyone had been paying attention to this index in 2005 (see demand plummeting even as prices kept rising in my compilation graph below) many buyers would have avoided disaster. So now today's index would suggest prospective buyers could be making a serious mistake not jumping in if they can find the right property. Add to this that Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR is going around the country talking about the inevitability of higher interest rates. Kind of a no-brainer! Still, remember, for every point rates go up on a 80% loan is the rough equivalent of paying 10% more for the house (because of what the difference in payment would amortize).



  • Market Conditions January 1st 2013

    Posted Under: Home Buying in Phoenix, Home Selling in Phoenix, In My Neighborhood in Phoenix  |  January 3, 2013 10:28 AM  |  319 views  |  No comments

    January 1 - A large number of listings expire on December 31 each year so it is normal to see the active listing counts drop suddenly on January 1. This year we see the active listing count excluding AWC/UCB across all areas and types drop 3.0% from 17,651 to 17,121. If we include AWC/UCB we saw a fall of 3.8%. These are larger falls than last year when we saw 2.3% and 2.1% respectively. This is to be expected as we have a higher proportion of normal listings and these more frequently expire on December 31 compared with short sales and REOs..

    Some areas have seen a much larger fall in active listings than others over the last few weeks, and some have seen an increase. The areas with a steep decline in active single family listings (excluding AWC/UCB) from December 1 to January 1 include:

    • Phoenix 85003
    • Phoenix 85006
    • Phoenix 85008
    • Phoenix 85014
    • Phoenix 85015
    • Phoenix 85016
    • Phoenix 85018
    • Phoenix 85020
    • Phoenix 85022
    • Phoenix 85024
    • Phoenix 85027
    • Phoenix 85028
    • Phoenix 85032
    • Phoenix 85044
    • Phoenix 85045
    • Phoenix 85048
    • Phoenix 85050
    • Phoenix 85085
    • Apache Junction 85119
    • Casa Grande 85122
    • Mesa 85203
    • Mesa 85207
    • Mesa 85208
    • Chandler 85224
    • Gilbert 85233
    • Gilbert 85234
    • Scottsdale 85254
    • Scottsdale 85255
    • Scottsdale 85260
    • Gilbert 85297
    • Glendale 85302
    • Glendale 85308
    • Peoria 85345
    • Surprise 85388
    • Avondale 85392

    We can assume that the market is improving in these areas.

    Those ZIP codes where the number of active single family listings (excluding AWC/UCB) has increased significantly from December 1 to January 1 include:

    • Phoenix 85009
    • Phoenix 85017
    • Phoenix 85019
    • Phoenix 85029
    • Phoenix 85033
    • Phoenix 85035
    • Phoenix 85037
    • Phoenix 85040
    • Gold Canyon 85118
    • Arizona City 85123
    • Eloy 85131
    • Casa Grande 85194
    • Tempe 86282
    • Tempe 85284
    • Waddell 85355
    • Sun City 85373
    • Wickenburg 85390

    The market is looking weaker in these areas.

    More supply has been released in West Phoenix while supply in North and East Phoenix is getting tighter.

    The Cromford Report Daily Observations

  • Priciest metro Phoenix home sales in the past week

    Posted Under: Quality of Life in Phoenix, Home Buying in Phoenix, In My Neighborhood in Phoenix  |  December 10, 2012 8:28 PM  |  339 views  |  1 comment
    By The Republic Fri Dec 7, 2012 6:29 PM

    An executive for Aetna Inc., a former health-insurance executive, an endocrinologist, a family of attorneys and a nephrologist are among the buyers and sellers in this week’s priciest home sales.

    $1,630,000

    David and Roselyn Balak, as trustees of their trust, paid cash for a four-bedroom, 4½-bath, 4,359-square-foot home with pool built in 2002 on the fairway of the first hole of the Desert Mountain-Chiricahua Golf Course in Scottsdale. The home has guest quarters with a separate entrance and includes a $140,000 deferred-equity golf membership. David Balak is regional vice president of national accounts for Aetna Inc. The home was sold by Archie and Sheila Rambeau, as trustees of their trust.

    $1,425,000

    Bryan and Christine Roche paid cash for 4,059-square-foot home with pool built in 2001 on the northern edge of the Desert Mountain-Chiricahua Golf Course in Scottsdale. The home was sold by Paul and Julie Gulstrand, as trustees of the Julie Gulstrand Trust. Paul Gulstrand was CEO of Minnesota United HealthCare Insurance Co. and CEO and president of Unimerica Workplace Benefits in Golden Valley, Minn.

    $1,315,000

    Laurance and Barbara Nilsen, as trustees of the Nilsen Family Trust, bought a 3,765-square-foot home with pool built in 1995 at Cheney Estates in Paradise Valley. Dr. Laurance Nilsen, M.D., practices in diabetes, metabolism and endocrinology in the Valley. The home was sold by William L. Nugent. William Nugent is president of W.L. Nugent Construction in Kingman and principal of Rose Commercial Group/R.C.G. Inc. in Kingman. He purchased a 7,700-square-foot home east of McDowell Mountain Ranch Park in Scottsdale for $2.5 million in June 2009 and sold it for $2.86 million in April 2010.

    $1,300,000

    Tamara R. Tiziano paid cash for a 5,269-square-foot home with pool on five acres built in 2005 on the east side of the Cave Creek Recreation Area in Cave Creek. The home was sold by Kenneth and Sylvia Bruening.

    $1,248,000

    Christopher and Whitney Meister and Donald and Michele Meister bought a 6,122-square-foot home with pool built in 1978 at Tatum Canyon in Paradise Valley. Christopher Meister is an employment and labor law attorney with Ogletree Deakins in Phoenix. Whitney Meister, an attorney and director at Fennemore Craig in Phoenix, practices in the areas of labor and employment law, civil appeals and commercial litigation. The home was sold by Phillip Green and his wife, Dr. Nancy Birendoim, M.D., an internist who specializes in nephrology, the treatment of kidney conditions and abnormalities.

    Researched by John McLean and the Information Market.

  • Mountain Shadows may have path to rebirth

    Posted Under: In My Neighborhood in Paradise Valley  |  December 10, 2012 8:22 PM  |  752 views  |  No comments
    By Philip Haldiman The Republic | azcentral.com Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:00 AM

    The long-shuttered Mountain Shadows resort in Paradise Valley could get some help in its struggle for a new existence.

    Rick Carpinelli, senior vice president of acquisitions and development for Crown Realty & Development, said at least one well-known hotel operator is interested in partnering with Crown Realty, the owner of the property, or possibly buying it and taking over redevelopment completely.

    But, he said, it all hinges on the approval of a proposed special-use permit, which outlines the redevelopment plan for the resort, resort-residential units and the property’s golf course.

    The permit initially was slated for a council vote Thursday, but the council has continued the discussion to Jan.10 because concerns from council and residents remain.

    Officials have not scheduled a vote on the permit.

    “The operators are finding us and coming to us and knocking on our door,” he said. “But they’re waiting to see what happens with the (special-use permit).”

    Carpinelli said high-profile hotel operators have been interested in the historic Mountain Shadows resort in the past.

    In May, Solage Hotels and Resorts, a luxury-hotel operator, entered into a preliminary joint-venture partnership agreement with Crown, but negotiations later broke down, and Crown continued with the permitting process exclusively.

    “(Hotel operators) don’t want to get involved when things are up in the air,” Carpinelli said.

    One document still missing from the permitting process is the town’s development agreement with Crown, which, Mayor Scott LeMarr said will include the financial aspects of the redevelopment. He said because the development agreement had not been completed by Thursday’s meeting, a discussion to review it will be scheduled for a later date.

    “The development agreement will cover the deal points with Mountain Shadows,” he said.

    Since the permitting process began in May, Mountain Shadows has seen ups and downs, including proposed changes with the special-use permit, possible claims from both of the resort’s homeowners associations and a bankruptcy filing by Crown.

    Crown recently submitted its reorganization plan in U.S. bankruptcy court that it says will help it emerge from bankruptcy and redevelop the resort, which has been closed since 2004.

    The reorganization plan may rely on a 20-year-old Mountain Shadows’ development agreement with the town, which could allow Crown to raze the resort’s 18-hole executive golf course and develop the resort at a much higher density than the proposed special-use permit would allow.

    Crown officials say allowing the resort, at 56th Street and Lincoln Drive, to be developed based on the 1992 agreement could help bring the resort out of bankruptcy.

    Based on the 1992 development agreement and greater density of new structures, the resort has been appraised at about $65million, according to bankruptcy-reorganization plans.

    Carpinelli said under the proposed permit, which limits the density allowed, the property is valued at about $45million.

    He said the company’s proposed plan would keep the golf course, but trim it from about 3,000 to about 2,500 square yards.

    He also said the 1992 development agreement would allow for 484 more resort rooms and residential units than the special-use permit allows.

    But Crown is willing to give up some of the value of the 1992 agreement by not developing the maximum it allows, in order to gain approval of a timely “fair and balanced” special-use permit, he said.

    However, Carpinelli said if the permit is not approved, Crown may be forced to pursue higher densities and elimination of the golf course for more residential space as allowed in the 1992 agreement.

    “We’ve said we want to work with the community and all parties involved,” he said.

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