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By Laura Kelley | Agent in San Diego, CA

Monday Morning Cup of Coffee: Positive outlook for 2012's housing market

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Monday Morning Cup of Coffee: Positive outlook for 2012's housing market
By Jessica Huseman
• July 8, 2012 • 11:02pm

A look at stories across HousingWire's weekend desk, with more coverage to come on bigger issues:

The weekend was full of speculation as to the future of the housing market. Optimism was the mood of choice, with all signs pointing to a way out of this long-suffered slump.

The San Francisco Chronicle summed up recent research, including the growing number of new and existing home sales, the boost in new construction permits, and rising median home prices, to conclude that “the longest and deepest slide in the housing market since the Great Depression could finally be coming to an end.”

“Based on the new data, many analysts now predict the housing sector will add to economic growth this year for the first time since 2005. That certainly will be a welcome state of affairs,” the article said.

The New York Times points out that the positive data was enough to produce gains in real estate investment trusts along with the funds that focus on them.

This is leading many advisers to recommend REITS, saying they provide income when it's difficult to find, as well as the possibility of growth.

“You’ve got a lot of people who need income, REITs are in good financial shape, and they have a lot of opportunities to pick up buildings on the cheap,” Allan Flader, a financial adviser at RBC Wealth Management in Phoenix, told the Times. “On the other hand they are trading at rich prices. They’re not by any stretch inexpensive by historical standards.”

In keeping with the good news, Jed Kolko, the chief economist at Trulia, penned a column for Bloomberg over the weekend detailing just how much home prices are rising. He points out that — even adjusting for seasonal patterns — all major home price indexes point to an upturn in prices.

Trulia’s asking-price index went up at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2012, and rose in 84 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas. Trulia said 61% of people surveyed expect prices to continue to rise.

While this is cause for relief, Kolko points out it could be fleating — European economic issues may slow us down. But a tightening inventory could give a boost to home prices, he notes.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Federal Housing Administration are expected to announce guidance in the coming weeks that urges banks to loosen credit standards on government-backed mortgages, the Los Angeles Times reported. Mortgage lenders are adding underwriting requirements and program restrictions to avoid buyback claims, the article said.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accept FICO credit scores of 660 to 680 while private lenders may demand scores 100 points higher. Private institutions, driven by uncertainty and overcorrection, are slowing up the market. “Since the two top agencies are trying to figure how to do this, homebuyers might see slightly less punitive "overlay" fees and underwriting later in the year,” the column said.

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