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Kendyl Young's Blog

By Kendyl Young | Agent in Glendale, CA

Home values Report La Cañada, August 2011

It is time to examine our numbers for August 2011. Are home values in La Cañada up or down?  Is this a good time to buy?  To sell?  Without further ado, let's dive into the numbers.

How are sales?
Our number of homes for sale is down, and has been going down, for 3 months.  This is a normal trend as we are a school schedule driven town and everyone pushes to sell before the school year starts.  However, we are down over 20% from this time last year.
The number of homes sold and closed is also down from last month, but we have sold more homes than this time last year.
I think the most interesting trend is the steady rise of homes entering escrow.  You would think this is due to low end short sales, but, no!  The bulk of these new sales comes from the mid range, one to two million dollar listings.

And prices?
Prices are another interesting story. Median price spiked in March as proactive parents moved early, and then started a gentle downward march for the rest of the year.  However, I participated in a bunch of multiple offer battles during those months- I can assure you my buyers were NOT feeling like prices were declining!  A more accurate picture of price is the average price per square foot, as this number tends to smooth out the differences in house size and price range. This chart shows a nearly flat trend line over 15 months with predictable fluctuations based on season.

So, where are we going?
Let's look at the Months Supply of Inventory (MSI).  As a review,the MSI is a nice snap shot of the pace of sales.  It shows that if no new homes come on the market it would take (<em>x)</em> number of months to sell our current inventory at our current rate of sales.  If the MSI is 0-4 months, it is considered a seller's market and prices are probably going up. 4-6 months is a neutral market with prices remaining flat.  Anything over 6 months inventory on hand is a buyer's market and prices are probably heading down.
Taking a look at the 15 month chart for La Cañada we see a real roller coaster ride, but there are patterns.  The June/July/August pattern of 2010 is repeated in 2011.  If we continue to follow last year, the MSI should stay, solidly, in seller's market territory for the rest of the year, and prices are likely to at least remain neutral.

Can I bet on that?
Puh-lease.  You know this is only an educated guess.  Anyone tells you they can predict the future is telling you a fib, plain and simple.  Do you need to sell?  Probably not. But, do you really want to move on with your life?
"Now" is one of the best times to sell in recent history.  "Later" might be better.  It might also be worse.  So, are you the gambling type?

Kendyl Young blogs daily at www.KendylsOpenHouse.com.  and she covers local real estate trends, hot properties and community happenings in Glendale, La Canada and La Crescenta.  You call or text her at 818-396-7588 or email kendyl@kendylyoung.com.  Amusing tweets; @kendyl

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