Home > Blogs > Michigan > Wayne County > Detroit > The Post-Crash Rebound, Not Job Growth, Drove 2013 Price Gains
40,677 views

Kenan Jue's Blog

By Kenan Jue | Real Estate Pro in San Francisco, CA

The Post-Crash Rebound, Not Job Growth, Drove 2013 Price Gains

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Asking Prices Up 11.9% Y-o-Y in December, Slower Than in November
In December, the year-over-year increase in asking home prices slowed for the first time since the price recovery began in early 2012: prices rose 11.9% year-over-year in December, compared with November’s 12.2% year-over-year increase. Asking prices rose 0.4% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted, the third straight month of gains less than 1%.

Quarter-over-quarter, prices rose 2.6% seasonally adjusted, which is also a slowdown from previous months. Quarter-over-quarter asking prices rose in 83 of the 100 largest metros and fell in 17, which is the most metros with quarter-over-quarter price declines in 10 months.

Trulia_PriceMonitor_LineChart_Dec2013

December 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

% change in asking prices

# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases

% change in asking prices,excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted

0.4%

Not reported

-0.5%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

2.6%

83

1.6%

Year-over-year

11.9%

98

11.3%

*Month-over-month change is December versus November. Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes are three-month averages. Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.

Asking Prices in 2013 Rose Most in Hardest-Hit Metros
All of the 10 metros with the largest year-over-year price increases in December were hard-hit during the housing bust. Asking prices fell by at least a third from peak to trough in these 10 metros, and by almost half or more in the three metros with the biggest price rebounds year-over-year: Las Vegas, Sacramento, and Riverside-San Bernardino.

Where Asking Home Prices Rose Most in 2013

#U.S. Metro

Y-o-Y % asking price change, Dec 2013

Price change in bust, peak to trough

Y-o-Y % change in jobs, Nov 2013

1Las Vegas, NV

33.0%

-61%

2.4%

2Sacramento, CA

28.2%

-48%

1.5%

3Riverside-San Bernardino, CA

25.9%

-50%

0.9%

4Oakland, CA

25.2%

-39%

0.3%

5Ventura County, CA

23.6%

-38%

2.0%

6Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI

22.7%

-37%

1.7%

7Detroit, MI

21.8%

-40%

-0.2%

8Los Angeles, CA

21.3%

-35%

1.7%

9Orange County, CA

19.9%

-33%

2.1%

10Fort Lauderdale, FL

19.1%

-48%

2.4%

Note: peak-to-trough price change from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Change in employment from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); November is the most recently published metro employment data. Among 100 largest metros. To download the list of asking price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF.

In most metros where the housing bust was milder, prices rose modestly year-over-year. The exceptions are Dallas, Houston, and Austin, where the housing bust was mild but prices experienced double-digit increases in 2013. West Palm Beach and several other Florida metros, in contrast, stand out for having had a severe housing bust but slower price gains in 2013 than most metros in California and Nevada.

The 10 metros with the smallest year-over-year price increases – or even declines – all had a milder housing bust than the 10 metros with the largest year-over-year price increases:

Where Asking Home Prices Rose Least in 2013

#U.S. Metro

Y-o-Y % asking price change, Dec 2013

Price change in bust, peak to trough

Y-o-Y % change in jobs, Nov 2013

1Albany, NY

-1.3%

-5%

0.5%

2Baton Rouge, LA

POST
 
Copyright © 2014 Trulia, Inc. All rights reserved.   |  
Have a question? Visit our Help Center to find the answer