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Jim Flanagan, GRI, e-PRO's Blog

By Jim Flanagan, GRI, e-PRO | Broker in Toms River, NJ
  • Toms River Market Report for the 1st Quarter of 2011

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Toms River, Home Buying in Toms River, Home Selling in Toms River  |  April 10, 2011 4:33 PM  |  2,292 views  |  No comments

    by Jim Flanagan on April 6, 2011 in Uncategorized

    Single Family Homes in Toms River (First Quarter 2011):

     

    Toms River Market Report-1st Quarter

    Toms River Real Estate-1st Quarter 2011

    This chart displays the sales and inventory of Single Family Homes in Toms River, NJ.  The high-lighted area focuses on the first quarter of 2011.  As we can see, sales dropped in February before spiking in March but the supply of homes for sale spiked in February and dropped in March (despite the current inventory increasing by over 120 homes)!  Both of these factors could be attributed to March traditionally marking the beginning of the “Spring Selling Season”, when we historically see more homes come on the market in anticipation of more buyers entering the market, and January being the “snowiest” month in New Jersey in over 60 years.

    Single Family Homes in Toms River (First Quarter 2010):

    Toms River Market Report-1st Quarter 2010 Toms River Real Estate-First Quarter 2010

    Notice the significant differences in the high-lighted areas between February and March of 2010; sales shot up while inventory dropped!  This is because we were entering the last  2 months of the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit” here in Toms River.  So, with the Federal Government offering up to $8,000 to home-buyers at this time last year, Toms River is only 12 sales behind, year-over-year.  Why?

    Sold/Closed Profile of Single Family Homes in Toms River (Year-Over-Year):

    Sold profile of homes in Toms River-Year over Year Sold Profile of Single Family Homes in Toms River (Y-O-Y)

    This chart illustrates the four distinct “types” of home-buyers that were active in Toms River during the First Quarter:

    1. The “Investor” clearly; when was the last time we heard of a sale in Toms River UNDER $100,000?
    2. The “First Time Home-Buyer”; and they are competing with the “investor” for homes UNDER $200,000.
    3. The “Move Up Buyer”; who is taking advantage of the price of larger homes that have fallen UNDER $500,000.
    4. The “High End Buyer”; who understands money and is purchasing a home (that cost near a million dollars just a few short years ago) for UNDER $800,000 today.

    In a nutshell; without the artificial demand created by the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit”, home prices have depreciated to levels that have made them attractive to investor buyers (short sales/foreclosures), first time home-buyers, move up buyers and high end buyers alike.  Combined with slowly but steadily climbing mortgage interest rates, home-buyers may be jumping off that proverbial fence in Toms River, NJ.

  • Retirement Homes in Ocean County, NJ (First Quarter 2011)

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Ocean County, Home Buying in Ocean County, Home Selling in Ocean County  |  April 9, 2011 9:39 AM  |  2,360 views  |  No comments

    Posted on April 6, 2011by Jim Flanagan

    Ocean County’s Adult Community Real Estate Market Report for the First Quarter of 2011:

    Ocean County Adult Communities 1st Quarter 2011

    Adult Communities in Ocean County-1st Quarter

    This chart displays the sales and inventory of Homes in all of the Adult Communities in Ocean County, NJ.  The high-lighted area focuses on the first quarter of 2011.  As we can see, sales dipped in February but rebounded strongly in March.  Both of these factors could be attributed to a “snowier” than usual January in 2011. The most significant factor to observe is the “Months Inventory”, which SOLD OFF 3 months worth of supply of homes in one single month (March)!

    Year-Over-Year Comparison with the First Quarter of 2010:

    Adult Communities in Ocean County in the 1st Quarter of 2010

    Ocean County's Adult Communities-1st Quarter of 2010

    Notice the major differences, between this year and last, are the number of sales in January of this year (137 over 115) and the HUGE DIP in the “Months Inventory” in March of last year.  The latter is because we were entering the last  2 months of the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit” here in Ocean County.  So, even with the Federal Government offering between $6,500 and $8,000 to home-buyers of Adult Communities at this time last year, Ocean County is  29 sales ahead of last year!  Why?

    Sold/Closed Profile of Adult Communities in Ocean County (Y-O-Y):

    Adult Communities in Ocean County Sold/Closed Profile

    Profile of Sold/Closed Homes in Adult Communities

    As we can easily see, there was a SURGE in sales UNDER $100,000 in the Adult Communities of Ocean County in the first quarter of 2011!  There were also significant increases in sales between $350,000 and $450,000.

    In a nutshell; without the artificial demand created by the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit”, home prices in the Adult Communities have depreciated to levels that have made them attractive to two “distinct” classes of retirees.  Remember, beginning January 1, 2011; 10,000 “Baby Boomers” turn 65 each and every day, and will do so for the next 19 years! Obviously, they are finding what they want, need and can AFFORD in the Adult Communities of Ocean County, NJ.

  • Ocean County, NJ-First Quarter 2011-Market Report

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Ocean County, Home Buying in Ocean County, Home Selling in Ocean County  |  April 6, 2011 4:03 PM  |  2,240 views  |  2 comments

    The Ocean County real estate market in the first quarter of 2011:

    Ocean County First Quarter 2011

    First Quarter of 2011 in Ocean County

    This chart displays the sales and inventory of Single Family Homes in Ocean County, NJ.  The high-lighted area focuses on the first quarter of 2011.  As we can see, sales have steadily increased month-over-month but the supply of homes for sale has remained relatively stable at just over 19 months.  Both of these factors could be attributed to March traditionally marking the beginning of the “Spring Selling Season”; when we historically see more homes come on the market in anticipation of more buyers entering the market.

    The Ocean County real estate market in the first quarter of 2010:

    First Quarter of 2010 in Ocean County

    The First Quarter of 2010 in Ocean County

    Notice the significant differences in the high-lighted area between February and March of 2010; sales shot up while inventory dropped!  This is because we were entering the last  2 months of the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit” here in Ocean County.  So, with the Federal Government offering up to $8,000 to home-buyers at this time last year, Ocean County is only 24 sales behind, year-over-year.  Why?

    Sold/Closed Profile of Homes in Ocean County (Year over Year):

    Sold Profile of Homes in Ocean County

    Sold/Closed (Year over Year) Ocean County

    As we can plainly see, the most active price ranges (between $100,000 and $500,000), saw the most significant changes in the $100,000 to $149,999 and $150,000 to $199,999 price ranges; +54% and +23% respectively.

    In a nutshell; without the artificial demand created by the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit”, home prices have depreciated to levels that have made them attractive to investor buyers (short sales/foreclosures) and first time home-buyers alike.  Combined with slowly but steadily climbing mortgage interest rates, home-buyers may be jumping off that proverbial fence in Ocean County, NJ.


  • Move UP in a DOWN Market in Ocean County, NJ, ...SOON!

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Ocean City, Home Buying in Ocean City, Home Selling in Ocean City  |  March 20, 2011 11:06 AM  |  2,191 views  |  1 comment

    In our last post, There May Be a Window of Opportunity OPEN for “Move Up” Home-Buyers in Ocean County, we wrote about the economic and financial conditions that may make the next 90 days the “perfect” time to MOVE UP to your next home in Ocean County, NJ.  We are so confident about this “opportunity” for our local residents, that we decided to make a video to better illustrate the benefits of “Moving Up” soon:

    WATCH VIDEO HERE!

    If you agree with us and believe that this just may be the opportunity you have been waiting for, please do not lose any more time.  Contact a local real estate professional and they will begin the process of helping you “Moving Up” in the down market here in Ocean County!

  • How's the market in Ocean County, NJ?

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Ocean County, Home Buying in Ocean County, Home Selling in Ocean County  |  March 5, 2011 1:48 PM  |  755 views  |  5 comments


    We are just over 2 months into 2011 and about to enter the traditional “Spring Real Estate Market” here in Ocean County, NJ.  So, how is the market in Ocean County looking so far?

    Looking back at January and February of this year, Ocean County saw 199 and 194 Single Family Homes sell (respectively).  The median sales price averaged $260,000 for both months and the sales to list price ratio averaged 93%.  We currently have over 21 months of inventory available in Ocean County, which means; at the current pace of sales, if no other homes were to come on the market, it would take over 21 months to sell off the existing supply of homes for sale!

    Different Market Dynamics

    Slide courtesy of Keeping Current Matters!

    As we can see, based on the chart above, we are experiencing an Extreme Buyer’s Market here in Ocean County.  Home prices will continue to fall as inventory levels continue to increase (not including the Shadow Inventory wild card).  Last year, at this time, the HomeBuyer Tax Credit was driving demand.  What factors may affect this year’s “Spring Market” in Ocean County?

    Well, according to some industry experts, 2011 could be the end of the housing crash!  What are the economic factors in play signaling this possibility?  Let’s take a look:

    • Mortgage Interest Rates remain at Historic Lows
    • Housing “Affordability” is the best it has been in decades
    • Unemployment reached its lowest level in 2 years
    • Consumer Confidence is growing
    • The Stock Market is re-bounding
    • Inflation is looming

    Any, and or all, of these factors may be behind the recent “spurt” of buyer activity we are currently experiencing here in Ocean County…not to mention the snow finally melted!

    In a nutshell; if you are in the market to buy a home in Ocean County, BUY NOW!  If you are in the market to sell a home in Ocean County this spring, DO IT NOW!  If you don’t WANT to buy and don’t NEED to sell, please stay off of and out of the market in Ocean County!  Thank you.

  • Is 2011 the End of the Housing Crash in Ocean County, NJ?

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Ocean County, Home Buying in Ocean County, Home Selling in Ocean County  |  March 1, 2011 9:37 AM  |  623 views  |  No comments

    A good friend of mine just called to tell me about an article he saw on YAHOO, concerning the real estate market, Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash.  I don’t know which interested me more; the fact that the Wall Street Journal published something positive about real estate or the amazing amount of “comments” attempting to discredit the author, the Wall Street Journal and everyone and anyone who ever had anything to do with real estate?

    Now, I don’t know anything about them (the commenters) but I do know that the sources used by Simon Constable are not exactly known for agreeing with the terminally optimistic perspective of the National Association of REALTORS.  I’m specifically talking about the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the analysts from Moody’s Analytics; both of which have historically opposed the “sunny” outlook of NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun.

    Housing is the most affordable it has been in decades, according to analysts at Moody’s Analytics. They don’t just look at house prices. They also look at incomes.

    So, why then, is it so difficult to believe the “end” of the housing crash may be near?  Perhaps it is because many of these “commenters” suffered some sort of financial setback as a result of the “Housing Bubble” or just because of the economy in general?  Or is it just too easy for anyone with a computer and too much time on their hands to “comment” on anything and everything?

    So as not to be lumped in with the latter, I’ll let the local real estate market speak for itself:

    The “activity” we are currently experiencing in Ocean County, NJ, would tend to agree with Mr. Constable, the Wall Street Journal and Moody’s Analytics.  But, I would be interested in the “comments” of our local community here in Ocean County…so, if you have a computer and a little time on your hands, be my guest!

  • Will the Groundhog see it's "Shadow Inventory" in Ocean County, NJ?

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in Ocean County, Home Selling in Ocean County, Foreclosure in Ocean County  |  February 2, 2011 7:42 AM  |  624 views  |  No comments

    Will the Groundhog see it's "Shadow Inventory" in Ocean County?


    Will Home-Sellers in Ocean County, NJ, SEE the benefits of an early Spring by listing and pricing their homes to sell? Or will they SEE their "Shadow Inventory" come to market and suffer 6 more MONTHS of Wintry Price Declines?

    February 2nd may be Groundhog Day to most of us, but if you NEED to SELL your home in Ocean County this Spring, February 2nd may be the day you see the light and list your home for sale with a professional at a compelling price!

    Here's why:
    So, contrary to popular belief; "waiting until Spring" to put your home on the market in Ocean County, NJ, could cost you a lot of money and a lot of time! Instead; climb out of that hole, shake yourself off and hire a knowledgeable, skilled professional to market your home at a compelling price before you SEE your "Shadow Inventory" bite you in the...

    Oh yeah; Happy Groundhog Day!

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