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Jan Lowery's Blog

By Jan Lowery | Broker in Virginia Beach, VA

THE MARKET IS CHANGING.....

The market is definitely changing.  1st and foremost the inventory of home for sale on the market has gone down considerable. Here are the statistics over the past 3 years.  I used Solds, and off markets to determine what actually went on the market. First I compared the first part of the moving year to the seasonal end January-August, then September-December, and compared it to the same timeframe last year, a huge difference 18.4% decline

9/1/12-12/31/12: Tot 1,541 (-81.8% From 1st part of 2012) (2011=3,600 vs 2012: -57%)

1/1/12-8/31/12:   Tot: 8,472 (2011=10,371 vs 2012: -18.3%)

1/12-12/12: Tot: 10,005 (-28.4%)

1/11-12/11:  Tot: 13,972 (-17%)

1/10-12/10:  Tot: 16,835 (+1.3%)

1/09-12/09:   Tot: 16,614

For Sellers: The inventory is current low and the past 6 months have had comparables littered with Foreclosures and short sales.  The effect is two fold.  Any properties that are in great condition, priced at or just below market are receiving multiple offersl.  Foreclosures, likewise, are receiving multiple offers.  The net effect has been very few comparables and many below what most sellers would like to get at this point in time.  Good News, shorter market times, multiple offers, the down side, you have to price carefully in order to get the appraisal.  Sometimes creative comparables are required to get that appraisal up.

For Buyers:  The inventory being low has made it more difficult for the owner occupied buyers to find the right house, at the right price in good condition.  The Good News: the inerest rates are still around 3-3.5%, and some lenders are offering lender credits (a negotiating tool). Prices are still down but beginning to go up.  The down side: you have to offer carefully in order to get your offer accepted, whether it is a private owner or a Bank...it is tricky and takes some deep research.

As unemployment goes down, interest rates will go up.  As unemployment goes down, prices also, go up.  Multiple offers create a "Seller's Market" tempered with lower appraisals, that will begin to rise with better comparables as the year goes on.  More properties will go on the market as the true Spring Market comes into view.....and things will continue to improve. 

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