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By David Dave Carr | Agent in New Haven, CT
  • Connecticut Trails the Nation since 1991 in Home Value Appreciation

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in New Haven County, Home Buying in New Haven County, Investment Properties in New Haven County  |  September 2, 2014 11:13 AM  |  81 views  |  No comments

    On 8/26/2014 The FHFA released their US House Price Index Report 2Q2014, for the period ending June 30, 2014.

    Here we see Connecticut in 51st position, with a 66.58% House Price Index increase since 1Q1991.

    Only Delaware (-9.14% ) did worse than Connecticut (-5.96) in the 5 year HPI Index appreciation

    Things look a bit better when we consider the 1 year index, and see Connecticut move up one place (ahead of Mississippi) to post a dismal 0.29% one year appreciation. This is good, considering how bad things have been for values since July 2006, and may indicate an intital formation of value support, and a secure buying opportunity.

    Three Other Significant Findings in the FHFA report were:

    A) The seasonally adjusted, purchase-only HPI rose in 40 states during the second quarter of 2014, down from 42 states and the District of Columbia during the first quarter of 2014. The top annual appreciation was in: 1) Nevada, 2) California, 3) District of Columbia, 4) North Dakota, and 5) Arizona.

    B) Of the nine census divisions, the Pacific division experienced the strongest increase, while . house prices were weakest in the East South Central division, where prices decreased 0.1 percent from the prior quarter.

    CThe monthly seasonally adjusted, purchase-only index for the U.S. has increased for seven consecutive months and 23 of the last 24 months (it decreased in November 2013). The Pacific and Mountain census divisions—the two divisions that saw the greatest price increases last quarter—continued to decelerate.

    This year Connecticut has seen improvement in Core Logic House Price Index Values, moving 4.5% closer to the July 2006 Peak Prices in all Single Family Property Values, with 17.9% CLHPI value remaining to be recovered.

    When we consider non-distressed single family property, the gain this year has been 4.25%,  leaving these non-distressed single homes 14.1% below their peak values. We see the most improvement in the CLHPI in June and July, which may account for the difference in FHFA and CLHPI data, and may indicate a stabalizing progression toward appreciation.

    I would like to think that Connecticut, being so far off the peak for so long with minimal recovery, while so many other Metro Statistical Areas have recovered, is beginning to demonstrate indicators of a value base formation.

    Things may look darkest before the dawn, and maybe this is time to consider what the future will deliver. With an enviable location close to New York City via Metro-North Rail,  and less than 3 hours to exceptional mountain skiing and Coastal Resort areas,, Connecticut offers a wide variety of cultural, recreational and educational opportunities, in an attractive New Engalnd setting of 169 citties and small towns and farming cmmunities, not to mention a demand for skilled professionals.


    Every person, every family and every decision is unique, which is why people considering real estate must consider their qualifications, resources and life style goals when deciding to buy a home. Home buyers benefit from working with an experienced professional like Mr. Carr, whose property selection experience, transaction management skills, and knowledge of his market will strengthen the decision making process of his clients.

    News is National but your real estate information develops in a radius of your preferred location. Until we see a consistent preservation of equity, a certain percentage of qualified homeowners may continue withdraw from the market, despite better than average prices and acquisition costs, adjusted for inflation. People who borrow money before inflation can benefit by securing their monthly costs, yet nobody wants to own a property they can not sell.


    David Carrr is a full time, Coldwell Banker REALTOR since 1997 >david-carr.net<, residing in Southern Connecticut. Mr Carr writes about being a Dad <4015 days/smashwords.com> and advocates for sustainable energy practices >newengland.eco-smart.com< and  >350.org<. Contact Mr. Carr at 203-654-2905.              Copyright2014 by David Carr. All Rights reserved

    The FHFA US House Price Index Report  2Q2014



  • A Brighter Future for Connecticut as Summer 2014 winds down?

    Posted Under: Quality of Life in New Haven County, Market Conditions in New Haven County, Home Buying in New Haven County  |  August 28, 2014 7:08 AM  |  83 views  |  No comments
    It may seem like only yesterday to some, and a long time to others, yet 10 years have passed since the go-go real estate boom that welcomed the twenty first century.

    Incredible affordability, no documentation mortgages, home equity cash outs, quick refinancing and property flippers ultimately brought us to the destabilization of a global economy that had bubbled up on questionable property appreciation supported by complex financing arrangements. The Great Recession left Americans staggering as jobs evaporated and values plummeted, leaving millions with unmanageable debt and an inability to provide for their families. Things may be looking better as summer winds down, and the past fades like a sunburn.

    On  Aug 13, 2014 Freddie Mac (FNMA) released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for August 2014, showing "the country getting back to a more normalized economy". I am hoping we may again see housing driven by fundamental values, instead of short term profit-taking and financial exploitation.  

    After several years of weakness Freddie Mac is starting to see the national labor market pick up steam. Are these jobs gong to create the strength and individual security to launch a full blown recovery? Time will tell, yet we can not downplay the significance of having added 230,000 net new jobs on average for the first seven months of 2014.

    The Census Bureau reported that over the past four quarters, net household formations totaled only 458,000, compared with long-term projections by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of 1.2 to 1.3 million per year. This means there is a building demand for new accommodation as younger couples seek to move in together and form new families. Will they accept rental accommodations because of poor credit, lower income, lack of faith in long term housing values, and unresolved past debts? Or will we see them find ways to invest a community, and home-ownership?

    Real estate continues to be  a great opportunity to leverage debt, build equity and lock in long term housing costs by controlling escalating rental payments. A homeowner with $7000 property taxes and $1200 property insurance premiums pays only $683/month to be a property owner. This seems much better than paying $1200-$1400 a month to rent a three bedroom apartment or $2000 per month to rent a single family home. Since 30 year mortgages remain close to the 50 year low of 3.875% (*Check your Annual Percentage Rate!), one may consider the current market compared to buying a similar property with a 6% mortgage. As a Licensed Buyer Agent in Connecticut, I can help you project these options. Most people pay a monthly fee for housing.

    Freddie Mac reported the monthly mortgage payment-to-rent ratio for the U.S. is near the lowest it has been in more than 35 years. Even with some increase in house prices and interest rates, the ratio will remain relatively low. This is the rent you pay compared to the payments you could make for a similar property.

    To Figure the Rent to Own Ratio, divide the purchase price of a property by the annual rent of a comparable one to get the result. This formula is similar to a PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio used in stock evaluation, or a Cap (Capitalization) Rate used in investment/rent income property.

    Consider Annual Rent of $2000 per month (annual rent and insurance) which totals $24,000 per year.

    If you apply $2000 Monthly Financing Costs (property cost, taxes, insurance, Private Mortgage Insurance, closing costs and personal tax credits) of a comparable
    $240,000 house, the Rent to Own Ratio Equation is 240,000 divided by 24,000 which equals 10.

    A Rent to Own Ratio between 12 and 18 is considered a probable buy indicator in the current literature should you decide to explore this formula.
    A Rent to Own Ratio under 10 is often considered a strong buy signal in the current literature should you decide to explore this formula.

    In closing, every person, every family, every neighborhood, every local economy and every property is unique. Data Discernment is an important skill in Real Estate acquisition these days, as we now have many different sources of virtual information, represented to the public for a variety of reasons. As a Licensed Agent for 18 years, my wish is for your success and security, in your life, in these times. Take time to consider where you are, where you want to be and how you want to start every day. 

    We live today, yet will live the rest of our lives in the future. Home ownership is not just about equity, it's about a quality of life as you open the door each day, and step into your world. Home ownership is about living your life and building memories as a family. Let's hope 2015 will give us the field of dreams in which we may harvest many great memories.

    David Carr is a full time Coldwell Banker REALTOR since 1997, residing in Southern Connecticut. Mr. Carr writes about real estate (david-carr.net), being a Dad (smashwords.com/4015days) and advocates for sustainable energy practices (newengland.eco-smart.com) and (350.org). Contact Mr. Carr at 203.654.2905.  Copyright 2014 By David Carr All Rights Reserved  


  • Science, Climate, Profit , Family and Responsibility

    Posted Under: Quality of Life in New Haven County, Agent2Agent in New Haven County, Going Green in New Haven County  |  June 28, 2014 6:42 AM  |  163 views  |  1 comment

    I have spent a considerable amount of time reading the work climate scientists and economists who have devoted their careers to this issue. There is virtually no debate among them that the planet is warming and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible.

    As a REALTOR, global citizen, and parent, it is my responsibility to seek the greatest good, and highest and best use, as "under all is the land" for which I am a steward. Today I quote excerpts from the article "The Coming Climate Crash; Lessons...in the 2008 Recession"  authored by Henry Paulson, former Treasury Secretary, in an effort to express my agreement with his message, as this vision is mine as well. As REALTORS  we’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.

    We shouldn’t leave our children or grandchildren with mountains of national debt and unsustainable entitlement programs, we shouldn’t leave them with the economic and environmental costs of climate change. Republicans must not shrink from this issue. Risk management is a conservative principle, as is preserving our natural environment for future generations. Climate change is the challenge of our time. Each of us must recognize that the risks are personal.

    We are building up excesses (debt in 2008, greenhouse gas emissions that are trapping heat now). Our government policies are flawed (incentivizing us to borrow too much to finance homes then, and encouraging the overuse of carbon-based fuels now). Our experts (financial experts then, climate scientists now) try to understand what they see and to model possible futures. And the outsize risks have the potential to be tremendously damaging (to a globalized economy then, and the global climate now).

    But climate change is a more intractable problem. The carbon dioxide we’re sending into the atmosphere remains there for centuries, heating up the planet.

    That means the decisions we’re making today — to continue along a path that’s almost entirely carbon-dependent — are locking us in for long-term consequences that we will not be able to change but only adapt to, at enormous cost. To protect New York City from rising seas and storm surges is expected to cost at least $20 billion initially, and eventually far more. And that’s just one coastal city.

    Fewer than 10 years ago, the best analysis projected that melting Arctic sea ice would mean nearly ice-free summers by the end of the 21st century. Now the ice is melting so rapidly that virtually ice-free Arctic summers could be here in the next decade or two. The lack of reflective ice will mean that more of the sun’s heat will be absorbed by the oceans, accelerating warming of both the oceans and the atmosphere, and ultimately raising sea levels.

    Even worse, in May, two separate studies discovered that one of the biggest thresholds has already been reached. The West Antarctic ice sheet has begun to melt, a process that scientists estimate may take centuries but that could eventually raise sea levels by as much as 14 feet. Now that this process has begun, there is nothing we can do to undo the underlying dynamics, which scientists say are “baked in.” And 10 years from now, will other thresholds be crossed that scientists are only now contemplating?

    We need to craft national policy that uses market forces to provide incentives for the technological advances required to address climate change. As I’ve said, we can do this by placing a tax on carbon dioxide emissions. Many respected economists, of all ideological persuasions, support this approach. We can debate the appropriate pricing and policy design and how to use the money generated. But a price on carbon would change the behavior of both individuals and businesses. At the same time, all fossil fuel — and renewable energy — subsidies should be phased out. Renewable energy can outcompete dirty fuels once pollution costs are accounted for.

    As we all move into the future, where we all will live, we will have the opportunity to look back and weigh the actions, and apathy in our lives. I raise the call to forge a path towards a sustainable future, where the next seven generations may live their lives. A path where history will honor our generation as the people who made the right decisions for people other than themselves.


  • A Shorter Wait to Buy A New Home in Connecticut

    Posted Under: Home Buying, Financing, Foreclosure  |  May 13, 2014 9:38 AM  |  213 views  |  No comments

    A Shorter Wait to Buy A New Home in Connecticut

    In it's August 2013 Mortgagee Letter, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced shortening the mandatory waiting periods for homeowners recovering from a short sale, deed-in-lieu, foreclosure or bankruptcy.

    2014 buyers must prove, over the period of a year, that they are back on track financially to participate in the FHA's Back to Work With Extenuating Circumstances Program,

    The program is definitive in who it helps, as buyers must prove that they were responsible, suffering from a catastrophic economic event beyond their control, while being responsible in other areas of their financial activities. A person who has lost their job and defaulted on their mortgage yet paid all their their other obligations is a great candidate.

    2014 buyers must prove that the foreclosure or short sale was caused by a >20% loss of income or employment, or a combination that was beyond their control.

    2014 buyers will show that they have fully recovered from the economic event. If a 2014 buyer experienced a foreclosure due to a job loss, they must prove he or she can afford new loan payments not exceeding 45% of their household income, without exceptional cause.

    2014 buyers will show their credit was good before the event, free from late payments or other major issues, and that good credit has been maintained over the most recent 12 months.

    2014 buyers will attend at least one hour of one-on-one housing counseling from a Department of Housing and Urban Development-approved counselor.

    2014 buyers who achieve the requirements can qualify for a 2014 FHA loan. This is important in the post recession housing market. Before August, 2013, if a buyer filed for bankruptcy, suffered a foreclosure or short sale, the minimum waiting period for buyers to obtain a FHA mortgage was: (a)3 years after a foreclosure, (b)3 years after a Short Sale in Default and (c)2 years after a bankruptcy. Changes in the housing market have caused these waiting periods to be reduced to one year.

    Only you know your plans, and dreams, and your resources. Thoughtful consideration of your occupation, values and goals will help you decide if now is a good time to become a home owner.

    Inflation adjusted values are close to historical lows in Connecticut this May, 2014, as Connecticut has trailed the nation in housing market value recovery, partially due to regional employment shifts away from manufacturing over the past 40 years.

    This article is a David Carr MADIAM (may-dee-um) Make A Difference In A Minute (noun). (1) One minute of time invested by one person on behalf of another person, social or environmental issue. (2)One minute of time invested sharing informative, progressive information with the intent of creating new insight and opportunity.

    David Carr is a full time, Coldwell Banker REALTOR since 1997, residing in Southern Connecticut. Mr Carr wrote about being a Dad (4015 days/smashwords.com) and advocates for sustainable energy practices (newengland.eco-smart.com). Contact Mr. Carr at 203-654-2905.

    Copyright2014 by David Carr. All Rights reserved

  • 3 things to know about 2014 Conneticut Real Estate

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in New Haven, Home Buying in New Haven, Home Selling in New Haven  |  March 22, 2014 7:25 AM  |  426 views  |  2 comments

    3 things to know about 2014 Real Estate

    According to David Berson (chief economist at Nationwide) 2014 should prove to be the strongest year for housing activity since 2007

    1) Home sales are supported by job growth and housing affordability. The latter reflects the interplay of household income, mortgage rates and house prices adjusted for inflation, balanced by rent to own patios. Learn more about Rent to Own ratios if you do not understand this measurement tool, or give me a call to discuss your situation. People buy homes when their job and income prospects improve – even if it’s more expensive to do so – rather than buy when it is inexpensive to do so but they’re worried about keeping their jobs.

    2) On average, roughly 1.2 million households form every year in the United States and they each demand a housing unit. Household formations are affected by the job market, as people “double-up” when worried about their job and income-earning prospects. The slow pace of household formations leads to pent-up demand. After all, most of these young adults would prefer the freedom of being on their own (and their parents really don’t want them as full-time residents, either). We estimate the economy is short by more than three million households.

    3) Mortgage credit isn’t nearly as easy to get as it was from 2000-2007, with preferred  ratios arounf 43% . Compared with recent 5 years, mortgage availability has increased slightly. And reasons exist for mortgage availability to be no worse in 2014 than in the past few years. Actually, it may be somewhat easier to get a mortgage loan.

     In Connecticut you can count on David Carr to help you define local trends and values in the neighborhood of your choice. Since 196 Mr Carr has been a Licensed Agent working n the North Haven, CT Coldwell Banker transaction floor, representing buyers and sellers of real property. Visit ahomeforme.com to learn more

    Prior to joining Nationwide, David Berson served as the chief economist at The PMI Group and for Fannie Mae. HW Publishing LLC gladly permits others to freely link to the content on our site, and encourages third parties to quote from small sections of content within our stories

  • 2014 Connecticut Maintains Positive House Price Index Appreciation in 4Q2013

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in New Haven, Home Buying in New Haven, Home Selling in New Haven  |  March 2, 2014 11:39 AM  |  532 views  |  No comments

    While this story may look gloomy for many of the hot, national real estate markets, it may be promising for Connecticut. House prices have trailed the nation since the beginning of the Connecticut recovery in 2011, as reflected in recent FHFA information below.

    Four-Quarter Percent Change in FHFA MSA-Level House Price Indexes

    (All Transactions Index, 2013Q4) Feb 25, 2014

    Year

    Quarter

    New Haven-Milford, CT

    Norwich-New London, CT

    Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT

    2013

    4

    0.04

    -2.11

    0.26

    2013

    3

    0.86

    -1.71

    0.43

    2013

    2

    0.37

    -3.34

    -0.06

    2013

    1


    Four-Quarter Percent Change in FHFA State-Level House Price Indexes

    Seasonally Adjusted, Purchase-Only Index, (2013Q4) Feb 25. 2014

    Year

    Quarter

    Connecticut

    2013

    4

    1.15

    2013

    3

    1.66

    2013

    2

    2.42

    2013

    1

    0.23

    While Connecticut squeezed out a respectable state wide increase of 5.46% in 2013, regional shoreline areas seek to continue marginal appreciation. From my perspective of 17 years as a licensed agent, I see the lack of appreciation a positive indicator moving forward, as we  may be developing a scenario of delayed appreciation compared to National Averages, supported by a historical strong relationship with New York City. Connecticut saw a simliar market in the early 1990's.  2014 house price appreciation is forecast in Suffolk County, Long Island as well as all metro areas of Connecticut. Both areas are served by a commuter rail system (LIRR and Connecticut's Metro-North).

    As you read the following CoreLogic report consider the ratio of one to three year appreciation and see how much of the three year appreciation has occurred in one year.

    Consider the Connecticut state wide and metro values. You will see how Connecticut metros have lagged the nation to date.

    All your real estate acquisition decisions should be based on local market data and your personal resources. Factors including employment, savings and future earning potential must be factored with your past history to help you define an appropriate model. My ability to present appropriate models to my clients may help them clarify their intentions.

    Since 1996 I have actively participated in the Connecticut Real estate market working with residential home buyers and muli-family investors. I also work with sellers of real property including Bank and Asset management companies, who recognize my superior brokerage market share. My Coldwell Banker team has the resources to present your property for sale to more qualified people in more places online at david-car.net and many other leading homebuyer platforms.

    I offer the following  press release for your consideration...............CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes Point to the Most Rapid Rate of U.S. Housing Market Appreciation Since 2006. Home prices increased nationwide by 11.2 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2013.

    IRVINE, Calif., Jan. 30, 2014 /PRNewswire/ – CoreLogic®  a leading residential property information, analytics and services provider, today released an analysis of home price trends during the third quarter of 2013 in more than 380 U.S. markets based on the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes.*

    The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes estimate that home prices increased by 11.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to a year ago. Nationwide home prices were 17 percent above values attained in the fourth quarter of 2011, but remained 23 percent below the peak reached in the first quarter of 2006. The analysis projects that price appreciation is expected to slow to 4.2 percent nationally through the third quarter of 2014 across all U.S. markets, close to its long-term annual average of 4.5 percent recorded since 1975.

    "Investor demand and sales of foreclosed properties are dropping quickly," said Dr. David Stiff, principal economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller. "This is especially true in states that were caught up early in the bubble and have non-judicial foreclosure proceedings, such as California and Arizona. In these states, inventories of bank-owned properties are close to being cleared. Non-investor demand, although increasing, will not replace demand from investors."

    The large metro areas, defined as those with populations greater than 950,000, that experienced the most rapid appreciation rates on a year-over-year basis compared to third quarter 2012 were Las Vegas (+30 percent), Sacramento (+27 percent) and Riverside, Calif. (+26 percent). The large metro areas with the slowest appreciation rates were Philadelphia (+3 percent), Hartford, Conn (+3 percent) and New Orleans (+3 percent).

    "Double-digit price gains are unlikely to persist, but since housing is far more affordable now than it was in 2006, there is less concern that a new housing bubble will occur. As of the third quarter of 2013, the ratio of median mortgage payment to median family income was at a 40-year low and 35 percent lower than it was at the peak of the bubble, even after accounting for recent increases in prices and mortgage interest rates," Dr. Stiff said.

    Metro areas with large projected year-over-year gains through the third quarter of 2014 are Oakland, Calif. (+9 percent), New Orleans (+9 percent) and Fort Worth, Texas (+9 percent). The large metro areas with smaller projected gains are Nashville, Tenn. (+2), Orlando, Fla. (+3 percent) and Jacksonville, Fla. (+3 percent).

    The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes are owned and generated by CoreLogic. The historical home price trend information in this report is calculated from the proprietary CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, supplemented with data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). One-year forecasts in this release are for the 12 months ending on Sept. 30, 2014. CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and Moody's Analytics®.

    *This quarterly report differs from the S&P/Dow Jones Case-Shiller monthly report. Although both reflect findings from the same dataset, this analysis includes local-level data for a greater number of markets over a different time frame. Additionally, this report differs from the monthly CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) report, which provides the most current indication of trends in home prices on a monthly basis.

    Selected U.S. markets (other metro areas available upon request):

    Metro Area

    Population
    (2012)

    Change in

    Home Prices
    (Q3 2012 to Q3 2013)

    Change in

    Home Prices
    (Q3 2010 to Q3 2013)

    Forecast

    Change in Home Prices

    (Q3 2013 to Q3 2014)

    United States

    313,914,040

    11.2%

    11.3%

    4.2%

    Las Vegas, Nev.

    2,000,759

    29.6%

    24.6%

    5.4%

    San Francisco, Calif.

    1,821,243

    20.2%

    25.2%

    4.8%

    Phoenix, Ariz.

    4,329,534

    18.7%

    34.2%

    4.3%

    Orlando, Fla.

    2,223,674

    17.2%

    21.0%

    2.9%

    Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

    1,815,137

    15.6%

    18.3%

    4.4%

    Tampa, Fla.

    2,842,878

    14.6%

    13.3%

    8.0%

    Jacksonville, Fla.

    1,377,850

    12.3%

    7.5%

    3.2%

    Salt Lake City, Utah

    1,161,715

    11.3%

    15.4%

    6.3%

    Austin, Texas

    1,834,303

    10.1%

    20.3%

    3.7%

    Indianapolis, Ind.

    1,798,634

    9.0%

    14.6%

    6.6%

    Columbus, Ohio

    1,878,714

    8.1%

    8.3%

    4.3%

    Richmond, Va.

    1,282,305

    7.2%

    9.1%

    8.5%

    Nashville, Tenn.

    1,644,703

    6.3%

    6.7%

    2.0%

    Raleigh-Cary, N.C.

    1,188,564

    5.3%

    8.4%

    6.1%

    Baltimore, Md.

    2,753,149

    4.8%

    2.4%

    8.0%

    Edison, N.J.

    2,360,602

    4.2%

    -0.8%

    4.3%

    Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y.

    2,848,506

    3.3%

    -1.4%

    4.8%

    Philadelphia, Pa.

    4,050,793

    3.1%

    -0.3%

    6.4%

    Hartford, Conn.

    1,214,400

    2.9%

    -2.5%

    8.3%

    New Orleans, La.

    1,205,374

    2.7%

    6.4%

    8.7%

    ® 2014 CoreLogic Case-Shiller

    SOURCE March 1, 2014___http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-indexes-point-to-the-most-rapid-rate-of-us-housing-market-appreciation-since-2006-242739931.html

    David Carr is a full time, Coldwell Banker REALTOR residing in Southern Connecticut. Mr Carr finds time to write about being a Dad (4015 days/smashwords.com) and advocates for sustainable energy practices (newengland.eco-smart.com). Contact Dave at http://david-carr.net

    Copyright (c) 2014 by David Carr. All Rights reserved

  • Inflation Hedge Value of a Home

    Posted Under: Quality of Life in Connecticut, Home Buying in Connecticut, Home Ownership in Connecticut  |  January 22, 2014 12:09 AM  |  475 views  |  No comments

    Inflation Hedge Value- Prices historically rise in the Unites States and most of the developed world consistently, controlled by the monetary policy of the government and current lending conditions. We often hear about the Consumer Price Index, which is an overall gauge of the prices of consumer commodities, the things most people buy on a consistent basis, food, clothes, cars, appliances and such.

    Many people do not consider a home or investment property a consumer commodity. That assumption, however, may deserve some personal consideration. We do not consume a home, we occupy it for a period of our lives until we move on for a variety of reasons. We do spend money on things associated with the home. We do access, and sometimes consume, the equity or “Home Value” of the property, which is the number we hear about in the national news. When the price of milk, dining out, a shopping cart of groceries, a gallon of gas, an ice cream cone or a beverage all cost more than it used to, so does a home.

    Currently at the end of 2013 in New England, I can see specific properties where the inflation value of a home is at historic lows, with actual, non adjusted cash values comparable to 1990 and 2000. In the same time, inflation has maintained lower than preferred levels of increase since 2005 due to recent financial market disturbances.

    If your house costs $200,000 and inflation is 2%, your home will be worth 204,000 in a year, $220,816 in 5 years, $243,798 in ten years, and $269,173 in fifteen years, based solely on assuming a 2% (200x1.02) annual increase in prices. We have seen properties appreciate much more than this between 1998 through 2006 and a fall in values from 2007 through 2012, due mainly to manipulation of collateralized securities and leveraged debt obligations by investors.  In Connecticut a home that was purchased for $200,000 in 1997 is worth over $325,000 ending 4Q2013.

    These market manipulations are similar to the Dutch Tulip Bulb Bubble of the 1600's where credit was extended, and people kept paying more for tulip bulbs simply because they thought they could sell them for more than they borrowed. Then and now, lenders were willing to fuel the investment, despite the quality of the borrower.

    David Carr is a full time, Coldwell Banker REALTOR residing in Southern Connecticut. Mr Carr finds time to write about being a Dad (4015 days/smashwords.com) and advocates for sustainable energy practices (newengland.eco-smart.com). Contact Dave at http://www.trulia.com/profile/davecarr/


    Copyright2014 by David Carr. All Rights reserved

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