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Amie Chilson's Blog

By Amie Chilson | Broker in San Francisco, CA
  • San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Soar

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in San Francisco, Home Buying in San Francisco, Home Selling in San Francisco  |  July 3, 2013 11:55 AM  |  729 views  |  No comments

    2nd Quarter 2013 Update

    In San Francisco, no market segment has recovered as dramatically as that for high-end homes. There are a number of reasons for this: the general economic recovery, the huge local increase in high-tech wealth, an increase in the number of highly affluent foreign buyers, and the fact that, as a group, the affluent have profited most from the large rebound in stock market values in recent years. And then the general appreciation the city has experienced of 20% – 30% since 2011 has simply moved a lot of sales into a higher sales price category. Whatever the reason, there is an enormous amount of money sloshing around the Bay Area that is now being invested in homes—many of which are being purchased all-cash. At Paragon, we have seen an increase of over 100%, year over year, in the number of luxury home sales we have brokered so far in 2013.

    In the first chart below, we are defining luxury homes as condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1,500,000 and above (the vast majority of these are condo sales), and houses selling for $2,000,000 and above. These are relatively arbitrary thresholds since a $2,000,000 house in Presidio Heights can be a small-ish fixer-upper, while a home of that price in another neighborhood might be a pristine mansion. In the charts breaking down sales by neighborhood, we’ve added the price segment for houses of $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 since what is happening there is quite interesting as well.

    San Francisco Luxury Home Sales by Quarter



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  • Maps of Home Values in San Francisco and Bay Area

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in San Francisco, Home Buying in San Francisco, Home Selling in San Francisco  |  July 3, 2013 11:29 AM  |  731 views  |  No comments

    Below are 2 mapped analyses of recent San Francisco house and condo sales by median sales price and average dollar per square foot, broken out by neighborhood; 1 map of median house prices for Marin, Napa & Sonoma; and 1 for the greater Bay Area. These maps give an interesting overview of prices and values in the different areas of the city and Bay Area.

    We typically update these maps every 3 to 6 months (on a rotating basis) so that there is enough home sales data per specific neighborhood or city to generate meaningful statistics — but even then they are all generalities, which often fluctuate for other reasons besides changes in value and should be considered approximate.

    San Francisco House Values by Neighborhood



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  • Case-Shiller: Different Bubbles, Different Accelerating Recoveries

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in San Francisco, Home Buying in San Francisco, Home Selling in San Francisco  |  June 26, 2013 1:12 PM  |  712 views  |  No comments
    Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “San Francisco” are for a 5-county area, of which the city’s housing market is a very small part. Since they are published 2 months after the month of the Index, are 3-month rolling averages, and the time between offer acceptance and closed sale typically runs 4-8 weeks, Case-Shiller is generally 3-6 months behind the market itself, i.e. when offers are being negotiated in the present. Case-Shiller publishes 4 main indices for SF Metro Area houses: an aggregate index for all price ranges, and then one index for each third of unit sales – low price, middle price and high price tiers.

    When the market fell from its peak in 2006-early 2008 (different areas and different market segments peaked at different times), the scale of the decline varied widely, mostly by price point.  With the recovery that began in 2012 and accelerated in 2013, the magnitude of the price recovery, as compared to previous peak values, has also varied by price point and area.

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  • San Mateo Real Estate Report

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in San Mateo County, Home Buying in San Mateo County, Home Selling in San Mateo County  |  June 13, 2013 11:37 AM  |  709 views  |  No comments

    Paragon Real Estate Group, June 2013

    San Mateo County has been experiencing the same high demand/ low supply/ rapidly appreciating price dynamics common throughout the Bay Area, with an extra burst of energy from high-tech. The turnaround generally began in 2012 and the recovery rapidly accelerated, and then accelerated further in 2013.

    Here is a look at the trends for 6 of the main statistical measures of supply and demand, and value.

    Median House Sales Price & Average Dollar per Square Foot


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  • Interest Rates: Is the Sky Falling on the Housing Market?

    Posted Under: Market Conditions, Home Buying, Financing  |  June 10, 2013 10:05 AM  |  446 views  |  No comments
    The pundits are making dramatic, even doom-laden pronouncements about what is going to happen with interest rates (and the housing market), though they’ve been wrong so many times over the past few years, these “expert” predictions might be taken with salt-shaker’s worth of salt, perhaps with lemon and a nice shot of tequila.

    Obviously, interest rates are an important component of the real estate market. This chart gives a little context to what has occurred recently: the blue column is the average 30-year interest rate for the first 5 months of 2013, when everyone was dancing with glee at how low the rates were; the black line at the end represents the interest rate on Friday, June 6th, though it is true that it briefly hit 2 tenths of a percentage point  higher earlier in the week.



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  • Inner Mission Condo Values

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in San Francisco, Home Buying in San Francisco, Home Selling in San Francisco  |  June 10, 2013 9:44 AM  |  503 views  |  No comments

    The Inner Mission has dramatically exceeded previous peak values — See charts below.



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  • San Francisco Neighborhoods Hit New Peak Values

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in San Francisco, Home Buying in San Francisco, Investment Properties in San Francisco  |  June 5, 2013 9:20 AM  |  406 views  |  No comments

    Paragon Market Report, June 2013

    New highs in home prices have not yet been reached in every San Francisco neighborhood, but the majority has either regained the value lost since the 2008 market meltdown, or now exceeded the previous high points of 2006-early 2008. (Different neighborhoods peaked at different times, just as they are now recovering at different speeds). This does not mean that every property bought at the height of the bubble in feverish multiple-offer bidding wars has now regained peak value. Nor does it mean that values might not fluctuate or drop in future months due to seasonal and/or other economic factors.

    Though virtually every market in the country is now on a similar upward trajectory, San Francisco’s has recovered more quickly than most in the Bay Area, state and country. The city’s neighborhoods, with a few exceptions, were never hit as hard as most other areas by the tsunami of distressed property sales: our home values generally fell in the 15-25% range compared to huge declines of 40-60% elsewhere and so we have had less ground to recover. That said, the city has always been an exceptional real estate market and the confluence of economic factors both general (such as the lowest interest rates in history) and unique (such as the local, high-tech boom) jumpstarted and supercharged our recovery beyond most others.

    It should be noted that, looking at past recoveries in the early eighties and mid-nineties, it is not unusual once a recovery gets underway after years of recession and repressed demand, for the market to regain previous peak values within a couple years of the turnaround beginning. Recoveries often start with a dramatic surge and that is what has happened with this one.

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