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Larry Tollen's Blog

By Larry Tollen | Broker in Durham, NC

Spring Market 2013 Update

Yesterday i had the honor of speaking at the Triangle Mortgage Brokers Association luncheon along  with two other local Brokers Stacie Dye (Go Realty) and Jeanette Hussey (Fonville Morisey Realtors)

The consensus was fairly unanimous there is a lack of inventory and it’s likely not going to change anytime soon. When compared to this time last year there is approximately a 20% decrease in overall inventory (with some minor variation depending on specific price-points and location) and sales up roughly 10% when compared to the same period last year.

The Fed continues to buy roughly $45 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. The reason is clear, it’s an effort to raise home prices and they seem to be succeeding. Of course this does present the risk of another bubble. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Buyers are coming out and they should. A family that could afford a mortgage payment of $1000 per month in late 2008 when QE1 began and mortgage rates averaged roughly 6% could qualify for a mortgage of $165,000. Now this family’s same $1,000 qualifies them from a mortgage of $222,000 or roughly 34% more. Now I make no claims to be prescient, but when you look at the data below and read between the lines in the news it seems apparent mortgage rates will be going up and I believe buyers realize this and are wisely acting. The median 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest     Over the past 40 years – 8.15%                                                                                                                               Over the past 30 years – 7.45%                                                                                                              
Over the past 20 years – 6.52%                                                                                                        
Over the past 10 years – 5.72%                                                                                                                
Currently in the range of – 3.675% and were I a gambling man I’d bet money that a year from now it will be at least one percent higher and possibly more. It’s already up roughly .5% from the beginning of the year.

If you’re looking to buy or sell real estate here in Durham, Orange, Chatham or western Wake county, feel free to give me a call or send me an email, I’d be happy to hear from you.

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For more information about the Durham, NC neighborhoods or homes for sale, visit my website at NCHomesByLarryT.com.

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