Aloha everyone. This is my first Trulia blog post (I post elsewhere already on HawaiiHousingNews.com
). I'm happy to post here as well from time to time.
I was just perusing one of my favorite websites
about the national housing inventory and short sales when I saw that the National Association of Home Builders and Fannie Mae both predicted serious increases in the number of housing starts for 2011. The NAHB threw out a figure of 575,000 while Fannie went as high as 710,000! This kind of flies in the face of the current preforeclosure and foreclosure market that, as far as my colleagues and I see, isn't going away anytime soon. The shadow inventory around the corner still has to be addressed before we see a big rosy rebound.
So why the overly optimistic figures? I'm always leery of those with agendas. NAHB would obviously enjoy the fruits of a surge in housing starts, but the elephant in the room hasn't left. All those foreclosures are turning into REOs which keep the market down. Granted this plays out differently in local markets (we in Hawaii were recently in the top ten in foreclosures per capita), but there's no ignoring the massive amount of upside down mortgages across America.
What's your take on these figures? Do you think they accurately reflect what the next 12 months has in store for us or have organizations like NAHB, Fannie Mae and others completely lost their marbles?